Tampa, FL - House Price Index (HPI)
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Tampa Real Estate Market - Home Price Forecast
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL single family
home prices in logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100. Real estate forecasts,
analysis, statistics and appreciation rates are provided below.
Tampa Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
Commentary 2829.56
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Tampa, Florida
Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST
12 Month Forecast: UP
Forecast Accuracy: 85%
LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Tampa housing market for the 12
months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2019 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Projection for Tampa is 85%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 85% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Tampa is 85% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2019 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Tampa Real
Estate Market Forecast.
3 Year Forecast: UP
Forecast Accuracy: 84%
The forecast for the trend in the Tampa housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 3rd Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
Tampa is 84%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 84% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Tampa is 84% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Tampa Real
Estate Market Forecast.
Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Tampa, Florida
Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter 1.84%
Last Year 10.8%
Last 5 Years 60%
Last 10 Years 32%
Last 20 Years 157%
Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988 1.84%
1989 3.39%
1990 -0.75%
1991 3.16%
1992 1.50%
1993 2.73%
1994 -1.31%
1995 4.54%
1996 2.03%
1997 4.63%
1998 5.25%
1999 6.12%
2000 8.93%
2001 10.39%
2002 9.11%
2003 10.40%
2004 17.79%
2005 25.90%
2006 8.95%
2007 -7.48%
2008 -20.63%
2009 -11.23%
2010 -6.56%
2011 -5.38%
2012 2.15%
2013 10.84%
2014 7.25%
2015 9.38%
2016 11.65%
2017 9.91%
Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter 1.84% Rank: 157 of 381 (58th Percentile)
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.8% Rank: 33 of 381 (91st Percentile)
Last 5 Years 60% Rank: 24 of 381 (93rd Percentile)
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . 32% Rank: 73 of 381 (81st Percentile)
Last 20 Years 157% Rank: 34 of 379 (91st Percentile)
The change in home prices for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL are
shown above for five time periods. For example: Tampa appreciated 1.84% in
the Last Quarter. At that rate, the Tampa Real Estate Market was ranked 157th
out of 381 metropolitan Real Estate Markets. Tampa was in the 58th percentile.
So Tampa, FL performed better in the Last Quarter than 58% of the 381
metropolitan areas covered in LittleBigHomes.com.
Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Tampa, Florida
The data and analysis on this page pertains to Tampa-St.
Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, hereinafter referred to as "Tampa". The all time
high in the Tampa Home Price Index was 296.3 in the 3rd Quarter, of 2018.
The Home Price Index indicates that the Tampa Market is up 32% over the last
10 years. Home prices in the Tampa Real Estate Market have gained 10.84%
over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 222%.
The 3rd Quarter index value was 5.34 points higher than the 2nd Quarter, 2018
index value of 290.97, resulting in a 1.84% rise in the 3rd Quarter for the
Tampa Market.
The Tampa Home Price Index has increased for the last 25 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in
the last 29 consecutive quarters. The current record holders for consecutive
declines in the Home Price Index are Winchester, VA; Trenton, NJ; Peoria, IL;
Great Falls, MT and Fayetteville, NC, with declines in the last 2 consecutive
quarters.
The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Tampa Real Estate
Market was 26% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2005. The
worst annual change in home values in the Tampa Market was -21% in the
twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2008.
The highest growth in home values in the Tampa Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 69% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of
2006. The worst performance over a three year period in the Tampa Market
was -37% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2010.
This page provides a long term graph of the Tampa Home Price Index (above).
For information about Florida home values, click Real Estate Market Forecasts
in the navigation bar at the top of this page. You'll see long term charts and
analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of
residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's
detailed research and statistics about Tampa Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.
All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Tampa Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.
Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Tampa Real Estate Market and hundreds of
other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.
Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Tampa, Florida
The trend of Tampa Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas is
detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed. Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period. The data and analysis on this page pertains
to Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, hereinafter referred to as "Tampa".
Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Tampa Home Prices had a rank of 157, with
appreciation of 1.84%. The top performing real estate market during the 3rd
Quarter was Sumter, SC, with a rise of 13.55%. The worst market during that
period was Cumberland, MD, with appreciation of -5.75%.
The median for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 1.57%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 1.54%.
Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Tampa Home Prices had a rank of 33, with
appreciation during the year of 10.84%. The top performing market during the
last year was Las Vegas, NV, with an increase of 18.1%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Cumberland, MD, with appreciation of -5.6%.
The median for all markets during this period was 6.14%. The average was
6.07%.
Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Tampa Home Prices
ranked 24, with a total appreciation of 60.4%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Reno, NV, with a growth in value of 81%.
The worst market during that period was Jacksonville, NC, with appreciation of
-2%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 24%. The average over the
5 years was 28%.
Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Tampa Home Prices had
a rank of 73, with appreciation during the decade of 32%. The top performing
market during the period was Denver, CO, with a rise of 83%. The worst real
estate market during the 10 year time period was Vineland, NJ, with
appreciation of -19%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 18%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 20%.
Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Tampa Home Prices had
a rank of 34, with total growth over the 20 year period of 157%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA, with an
increase of 289%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Saginaw, MI,
with appreciation of 21%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 83%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 92%.
Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Tampa Real Estate
Market is available back to the 3rd Quarter, of 1977. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Tampa. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)
Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Friday, February 1, 2019.
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