Santa Barbara, CA - House Price Index (HPI)
Santa Barbara Real Estate Market - Home Price Forecast
100
1000
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, CA single family
home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts,
analysis, statistics and appreciation rates are provided below.
10
Santa Barbara Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
Commentary  2799.56
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Santa Barbara, California


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      83%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Santa Barbara housing market for the
12 months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2019 is UP. The Accuracy of the
Trend Projection for Santa Barbara is 83%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 83% of the time.
Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house
prices in Santa Barbara is 83% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2019 than
they were in the 3rd Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the Santa Barbara Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      76%

The forecast for the trend in the Santa Barbara housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Santa Barbara is 76%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 76% of the time.
Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house
prices in Santa Barbara is 76% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2021 than
they were in the 3rd Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the Santa Barbara Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Santa Barbara, California


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                         1.09%
Last Year                              6.0%
Last 5 Years                         40%
Last 10 Years                       30%
Last 20 Years                       170%
Decline From All Time High   11.00%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      14.44%
1989      22.54%
1990      -1.53%
1991      0.34%
1992      -3.99%
1993      -3.47%
1994      -1.90%
1995      -0.23%
1996      1.63%
1997      4.30%
1998      11.12%
1999      10.75%
2000      14.31%
2001      14.88%
2002      18.11%
2003      14.74%
2004      28.11%
2005      16.88%
2006      -3.85%
2007      -15.35%
2008      -17.93%
2009      -7.01%
2010      -1.96%
2011      -9.07%
2012      2.15%
2013      16.81%
2014      8.51%
2015      7.90%
2016      4.81%
2017      4.66%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              1.09%         Rank: 239 of 381 (37th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  6.0%           Rank: 204 of 381 (46th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              40%            Rank: 93 of 381 (75th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   30%            Rank: 87 of 381 (77th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            170%          Rank: 27 of 379 (93rd Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        11.00%

The change in home prices for Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA are shown
above for five time periods. For example: Santa Barbara appreciated 1.09% in
the Last Quarter. At that rate, the Santa Barbara Real Estate Market was
ranked 239th out of 381 metropolitan Real Estate Markets. Santa Barbara was
in the 37th percentile. So Santa Barbara, CA performed better in the Last
Quarter than 37% of the 381 metropolitan areas covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Santa Barbara, California

The data and analysis on this page pertains to Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA,
hereinafter referred to as "Santa Barbara". The all time high in the Santa
Barbara Home Price Index was 351.3 in the 4th Quarter, of 2005. The 3rd
Quarter, 2018 index value was 312.7. That's a decline of 38.65 points or
11.00% below the Santa Barbara Home Price Index all time high.  The Home
Price Index indicates that the Santa Barbara Market is up 30% over the last 10
years. Home prices in the Santa Barbara Real Estate Market have gained
6.01% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 252%.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 3.36 points higher than the 2nd Quarter, 2018
index value of 309.32, resulting in a 1.09% rise in the 3rd Quarter for the Santa
Barbara Market.

The Santa Barbara Home Price Index has increased for the last 10 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in
the last 29 consecutive quarters. The current record holders for consecutive
declines in the Home Price Index are Winchester, VA; Trenton, NJ; Peoria, IL;
Great Falls, MT and Fayetteville, NC, with declines in the last 2 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Santa Barbara Real
Estate Market was 30% in the twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of
2004. The worst annual change in home values  in the Santa Barbara Market
was -20% in the twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2008.

The highest growth in home values in the Santa Barbara Real Estate Market
over a three year period was 75% in the three years ended with the 2nd
Quarter of 2005. The worst performance over a three year period in the Santa
Barbara Market was -37% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of
2009.

This page provides a long term graph of the Santa Barbara Home Price Index
(above). For information about California home values, click Real Estate Market
Forecasts in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long term
charts and analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical trends
of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's
detailed research and statistics about Santa Barbara Home Prices will be at
your fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Santa Barbara Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index,
as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Santa Barbara Real Estate Market and
hundreds of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a
number of months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Santa Barbara, California

The trend of Santa Barbara Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan
areas is detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities.
Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period. The data and analysis on this page pertains
to Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA, hereinafter referred to as "Santa Barbara".

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Santa Barbara Home Prices had a rank of 239,
with appreciation of 1.09%. The top performing real estate market during the
3rd Quarter was Sumter, SC, with a rise of 13.55%. The worst market during
that period was Cumberland, MD, with appreciation of -5.75%.
The median for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 1.57%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 1.54%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Santa Barbara Home Prices had a rank of 204, with
appreciation during the year of 6.01%. The top performing market during the
last year was Las Vegas, NV, with an increase of 18.1%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Cumberland, MD, with appreciation of -5.6%.
The median for all markets during this period was 6.14%. The average was
6.07%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Santa Barbara Home
Prices ranked 93, with a total appreciation of 40.2%. The top performing real
estate market during the 5 year period was Reno, NV, with a growth in value of
81%. The worst market during that period was Jacksonville, NC, with
appreciation of -2%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 24%. The average over the
5 years was 28%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Santa Barbara Home
Prices had a rank of 87, with appreciation during the decade of 30%. The top
performing market during the period was Denver, CO, with a rise of 83%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Vineland, NJ, with
appreciation of -19%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 18%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 20%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Santa Barbara Home
Prices had a rank of 27, with total growth over the 20 year period of 170%. The
top performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA,
with an increase of 289%. The worst market during the last 20 years was
Saginaw, MI, with appreciation of 21%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 83%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 92%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Santa Barbara Real
Estate Market is available back to the 4th Quarter, of 1977. All calculations are
based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Santa Barbara. Real
estate appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each
time period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Thursday, January 31, 2019.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.




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