Salem, OR - House Price Index (HPI)
Salem Real Estate Market - Home Price Forecast
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1000
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Salem, OR single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and
appreciation rates are provided below.
10
Salem Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
Commentary  2787.56
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Salem, Oregon


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      89%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Salem housing market for the 12
months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2019 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Projection for Salem is 89%. In other words, when tested against historical data,
the forecasting methodology was correct 89% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Salem is 89% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2019 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Salem Real
Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      83%

The forecast for the trend in the Salem housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 3rd Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
Salem is 83%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 83% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Salem is 83% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Salem Real
Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Salem, Oregon


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                         2.71%
Last Year                              12.5%
Last 5 Years                         63%
Last 10 Years                       32%
Last 20 Years                       118%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      8.29%
1989      7.81%
1990      11.66%
1991      8.53%
1992      9.26%
1993      7.91%
1994      10.28%
1995      8.94%
1996      6.52%
1997      5.26%
1998      4.75%
1999      0.38%
2000      3.07%
2001      4.83%
2002      2.78%
2003      3.92%
2004      7.03%
2005      14.79%
2006      14.44%
2007      4.47%
2008      -4.57%
2009      -9.54%
2010      -4.64%
2011      -6.83%
2012      -2.39%
2013      4.73%
2014      7.35%
2015      8.99%
2016      11.02%
2017      11.77%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              2.71%         Rank: 88 of 381 (77th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  12.5%          Rank: 14 of 381 (96th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              63%            Rank: 17 of 381 (95th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   32%            Rank: 74 of 381 (80th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            118%          Rank: 95 of 379 (75th Percentile)


The change in home prices for Salem, OR are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Salem appreciated 2.71% in the Last Quarter. At that
rate, the Salem Real Estate Market was ranked 88th out of 381 metropolitan
Real Estate Markets. Salem was in the 77th percentile. So Salem, OR
performed better in the Last Quarter than 77% of the 381 metropolitan areas
covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Salem, Oregon

The all time high in the Salem Home Price Index was 269.9 in the 3rd Quarter,
of 2018.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Salem Market is up 32% over
the last 10 years. Home prices in the Salem Real Estate Market have gained
12.46% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 366%.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 7.12 points higher than the 2nd Quarter, 2018
index value of 262.77, resulting in a 2.71% rise in the 3rd Quarter for the Salem
Market.

The Salem Home Price Index has increased for the last 22 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in
the last 29 consecutive quarters. The current record holders for consecutive
declines in the Home Price Index are Winchester, VA; Trenton, NJ; Peoria, IL;
Great Falls, MT and Fayetteville, NC, with declines in the last 2 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Salem Real Estate
Market was 17% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2006. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Salem Market was -11% in the
twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 1981.

The highest growth in home values in the Salem Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 42% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of
2007. The worst performance over a three year period in the Salem Market was
-23% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph of the Salem Home Price Index (above).
For information about Oregon home values, click Real Estate Market Forecasts
in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long term charts and
analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of
residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's
detailed research and statistics about Salem Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Salem Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as used
in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price
Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Salem Real Estate Market and hundreds of
other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Salem, Oregon

The trend of Salem Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas is
detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Salem Home Prices had a rank of 88, with
appreciation of 2.71%. The top performing real estate market during the 3rd
Quarter was Sumter, SC, with a rise of 13.55%. The worst market during that
period was Cumberland, MD, with appreciation of -5.75%.
The median for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 1.57%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 1.54%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Salem Home Prices had a rank of 14, with
appreciation during the year of 12.46%. The top performing market during the
last year was Las Vegas, NV, with an increase of 18.1%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Cumberland, MD, with appreciation of -5.6%.
The median for all markets during this period was 6.14%. The average was
6.07%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Salem Home Prices
ranked 17, with a total appreciation of 63.3%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Reno, NV, with a growth in value of 81%.
The worst market during that period was Jacksonville, NC, with appreciation of
-2%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 24%. The average over the
5 years was 28%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Salem Home Prices had
a rank of 74, with appreciation during the decade of 32%. The top performing
market during the period was Denver, CO, with a rise of 83%. The worst real
estate market during the 10 year time period was Vineland, NJ, with
appreciation of -19%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 18%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 20%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Salem Home Prices had
a rank of 95, with total growth over the 20 year period of 118%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA, with an
increase of 289%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Saginaw, MI,
with appreciation of 21%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 83%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 92%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Salem Real Estate
Market is available back to the 2nd Quarter, of 1978. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Salem. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Tuesday, January 8, 2019.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.



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