Lynchburg, VA - House Price Index (HPI)
Lynchburg Real Estate Market Forecast
100
1000
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Lynchburg, VA single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics
and appreciation rates are provided below.
10
Lynchburg Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
Commentary  2698.56
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Lynchburg, Virginia


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      90%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Lynchburg housing market for the 12
months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2019 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Projection for Lynchburg is 90%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 90% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Lynchburg is 90% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2019 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Lynchburg
Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      86%

The forecast for the trend in the Lynchburg housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Lynchburg is 86%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 86% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Lynchburg is 86% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Lynchburg
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Lynchburg, Virginia


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                         4.47%
Last Year                              6.8%
Last 5 Years                         16%
Last 10 Years                       9%
Last 20 Years                       78%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      3.11%
1989      5.27%
1990      1.66%
1991      5.13%
1992      3.60%
1993      5.49%
1994      0.72%
1995      6.92%
1996      2.58%
1997      1.89%
1998      3.94%
1999      1.43%
2000      4.19%
2001      6.02%
2002      3.23%
2003      4.50%
2004      6.46%
2005      11.10%
2006      10.15%
2007      4.43%
2008      -0.85%
2009      -1.72%
2010      -1.89%
2011      -3.09%
2012      -0.09%
2013      0.47%
2014      0.25%
2015      3.70%
2016      0.86%
2017      3.60%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              4.47%         Rank: 23 of 381 (94th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  6.8%           Rank: 155 of 381 (59th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              16%            Rank: 281 of 381 (26th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   9%              Rank: 282 of 381 (26th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            78%            Rank: 207 of 379 (45th Percentile)


The change in home prices for Lynchburg, VA are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Lynchburg appreciated 4.47% in the Last Quarter. At
that rate, the Lynchburg Real Estate Market was ranked 23rd out of 381
metropolitan Real Estate Markets. Lynchburg was in the 94th percentile. So
Lynchburg, VA performed better in the Last Quarter than 94% of the 381
metropolitan areas covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Lynchburg, Virginia

The all time high in the Lynchburg Home Price Index was 201.5 in the 3rd
Quarter, of 2018.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Lynchburg Market is
up 9% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the Lynchburg Real Estate Market
have gained 6.81% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up
159%.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 8.62 points higher than the 2nd Quarter, 2018
index value of 192.90, resulting in a 4.47% rise in the 3rd Quarter for the
Lynchburg Market.

The Lynchburg Home Price Index has increased for the last 5 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in
the last 29 consecutive quarters. The current record holders for consecutive
declines in the Home Price Index are Winchester, VA; Trenton, NJ; Peoria, IL;
Great Falls, MT and Fayetteville, NC, with declines in the last 2 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Lynchburg Real
Estate Market was 11% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of
2005. The worst annual change in home values  in the Lynchburg Market was
-4% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2010.

The highest growth in home values in the Lynchburg Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 31% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of
2007. The worst performance over a three year period in the Lynchburg Market
was -8% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2012.

This page provides a long term graph of the Lynchburg Home Price Index
(above). For information about Virginia home values, click Real Estate Market
Forecasts in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long term
charts and analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical trends
of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's
detailed research and statistics about Lynchburg Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Lynchburg Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Lynchburg Real Estate Market and hundreds
of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Lynchburg, Virginia

The trend of Lynchburg Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas is
detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Lynchburg Home Prices had a rank of 23, with
appreciation of 4.47%. The top performing real estate market during the 3rd
Quarter was Sumter, SC, with a rise of 13.55%. The worst market during that
period was Cumberland, MD, with appreciation of -5.75%.
The median for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 1.57%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 1.54%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Lynchburg Home Prices had a rank of 155, with
appreciation during the year of 6.81%. The top performing market during the
last year was Las Vegas, NV, with an increase of 18.1%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Cumberland, MD, with appreciation of -5.6%.
The median for all markets during this period was 6.14%. The average was
6.07%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Lynchburg Home Prices
ranked 281, with a total appreciation of 15.5%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Reno, NV, with a growth in value of 81%.
The worst market during that period was Jacksonville, NC, with appreciation of
-2%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 24%. The average over the
5 years was 28%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Lynchburg Home Prices
had a rank of 282, with appreciation during the decade of 9%. The top
performing market during the period was Denver, CO, with a rise of 83%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Vineland, NJ, with
appreciation of -19%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 18%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 20%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Lynchburg Home Prices
had a rank of 207, with total growth over the 20 year period of 78%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA, with an
increase of 289%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Saginaw, MI,
with appreciation of 21%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 83%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 92%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Lynchburg Real Estate
Market is available back to the 2nd Quarter, of 1986. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Lynchburg. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, January 2, 2019.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.





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