Johnson City, TN - House Price Index (HPI)
Johnson City Real Estate Market Forecast
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Johnson City, TN single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics
and appreciation rates are provided below.
Johnson City Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
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Commentary  2658.56
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Johnson City, Tennessee


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      76%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Johnson City housing market for the
12 months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2019 is UP. The Accuracy of the
Trend Projection for Johnson City is 76%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 76% of the time.
Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house
prices in Johnson City is 76% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast
is correct, home prices will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2019 than they were
in the 3rd Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the
Johnson City Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      80%

The forecast for the trend in the Johnson City housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Johnson City is 80%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 80% of the time.
Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house
prices in Johnson City is 80% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast
is correct, home values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2021 than they were
in the 3rd Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the
Johnson City Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Johnson City, Tennessee


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                         1.79%
Last Year                              6.6%
Last 5 Years                         15%
Last 10 Years                       11%
Last 20 Years                       67%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988        n/a
1989        n/a
1990        n/a
1991        n/a
1992        n/a
1993      7.19%
1994      1.60%
1995      10.90%
1996      3.24%
1997      5.40%
1998      6.15%
1999      -1.43%
2000      6.02%
2001      3.07%
2002      4.72%
2003      3.75%
2004      5.00%
2005      7.48%
2006      7.79%
2007      3.39%
2008      0.30%
2009      0.44%
2010      0.08%
2011      -2.39%
2012      0.66%
2013      -4.55%
2014      6.25%
2015      0.49%
2016      1.65%
2017      6.51%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              1.79%         Rank: 164 of 381 (57th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  6.6%           Rank: 169 of 381 (55th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              15%            Rank: 289 of 381 (24th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   11%            Rank: 255 of 381 (33rd Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            67%            Rank: 252 of 379 (33rd Percentile)


The change in home prices for Johnson City, TN are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Johnson City appreciated 1.79% in the Last Quarter. At
that rate, the Johnson City Real Estate Market was ranked 164th out of 381
metropolitan Real Estate Markets. Johnson City was in the 57th percentile. So
Johnson City, TN performed better in the Last Quarter than 57% of the 381
metropolitan areas covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Johnson City, Tennessee

The all time high in the Johnson City Home Price Index was 199.6 in the 3rd
Quarter, of 2018.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Johnson City Market
is up 11% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the Johnson City Real Estate
Market have gained 6.57% over the last 12 months.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 3.51 points higher than the 2nd Quarter, 2018
index value of 196.06, resulting in a 1.79% rise in the 3rd Quarter for the
Johnson City Market.

The Johnson City Home Price Index increased in the last quarter after falling in
the previous quarter. The current record holders for consecutive increases in
the Home Price Index are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with
increases in the last 29 consecutive quarters. The current record holders for
consecutive declines in the Home Price Index are Winchester, VA; Trenton, NJ;
Peoria, IL; Great Falls, MT and Fayetteville, NC, with declines in the last 2
consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Johnson City Real
Estate Market was 11% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of
1995. The worst annual change in home values  in the Johnson City Market was
-5% in the twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2011.

The highest growth in home values in the Johnson City Real Estate Market over
a three year period was 22% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of
2007. The worst performance over a three year period in the Johnson City
Market was -6% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2013.

This page provides a long term graph of the Johnson City Home Price Index
(above). For information about Tennessee home values, click Real Estate
Market Forecasts in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long
term charts and analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical
trends of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then
LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research and statistics about Johnson City Home
Prices will be at your fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Johnson City Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index,
as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Johnson City Real Estate Market and
hundreds of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a
number of months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Johnson City, Tennessee

The trend of Johnson City Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas
is detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Johnson City Home Prices had a rank of 164,
with appreciation of 1.79%. The top performing real estate market during the
3rd Quarter was Sumter, SC, with a rise of 13.55%. The worst market during
that period was Cumberland, MD, with appreciation of -5.75%.
The median for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 1.57%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 1.54%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Johnson City Home Prices had a rank of 169, with
appreciation during the year of 6.57%. The top performing market during the
last year was Las Vegas, NV, with an increase of 18.1%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Cumberland, MD, with appreciation of -5.6%.
The median for all markets during this period was 6.14%. The average was
6.07%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Johnson City Home
Prices ranked 289, with a total appreciation of 15.2%. The top performing real
estate market during the 5 year period was Reno, NV, with a growth in value of
81%. The worst market during that period was Jacksonville, NC, with
appreciation of -2%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 24%. The average over the
5 years was 28%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Johnson City Home
Prices had a rank of 255, with appreciation during the decade of 11%. The top
performing market during the period was Denver, CO, with a rise of 83%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Vineland, NJ, with
appreciation of -19%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 18%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 20%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Johnson City Home
Prices had a rank of 252, with total growth over the 20 year period of 67%. The
top performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA,
with an increase of 289%. The worst market during the last 20 years was
Saginaw, MI, with appreciation of 21%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 83%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 92%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Johnson City Real
Estate Market is available back to the 2nd Quarter, of 1992. All calculations are
based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Johnson City. Real
estate appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each
time period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Monday, December 31, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.





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