Harrisonburg, VA - House Price Index (HPI)
Harrisonburg Real Estate Market Forecast
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Harrisonburg, VA single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics
and appreciation rates are provided below.
Harrisonburg Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
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Commentary  2635.56
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Harrisonburg, Virginia


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      82%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Harrisonburg housing market for the
12 months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2019 is UP. The Accuracy of the
Trend Projection for Harrisonburg is 82%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 82% of the time.
Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house
prices in Harrisonburg is 82% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast
is correct, home prices will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2019 than they were
in the 3rd Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the
Harrisonburg Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      79%

The forecast for the trend in the Harrisonburg housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Harrisonburg is 79%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 79% of the time.
Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house
prices in Harrisonburg is 79% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast
is correct, home values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2021 than they were
in the 3rd Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the
Harrisonburg Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Harrisonburg, Virginia


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     -2.04%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  2.7%
Last 5 Years                                     13%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Last 20 Years                                   84%
Decline From All Time High               2.04%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      1.30%
1989      14.17%
1990      -0.13%
1991      5.02%
1992      1.48%
1993      2.56%
1994      3.07%
1995      -0.48%
1996      3.41%
1997      2.07%
1998      4.21%
1999      0.68%
2000      3.69%
2001      5.08%
2002      5.22%
2003      6.85%
2004      12.69%
2005      19.75%
2006      9.19%
2007      1.56%
2008      -2.04%
2009      -4.37%
2010      -3.76%
2011      -2.08%
2012      -1.37%
2013      -0.88%
2014      2.04%
2015      5.31%
2016      -0.71%
2017      3.60%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              -2.04%        Rank: 363 of 381 (4th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  2.7%           Rank: 320 of 381 (16th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              13%            Rank: 311 of 381 (18th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   2%              Rank: 325 of 381 (14th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            84%            Rank: 180 of 379 (52nd Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        2.04%

The change in home prices for Harrisonburg, VA are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Harrisonburg appreciated -2.04% in the Last Quarter. At
that rate, the Harrisonburg Real Estate Market was ranked 363rd out of 381
metropolitan Real Estate Markets. Harrisonburg was in the 4th percentile. So
Harrisonburg, VA performed better in the Last Quarter than 4% of the 381
metropolitan areas covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Harrisonburg, Virginia

The all time high in the Harrisonburg Home Price Index was 209.2 in the 2nd
Quarter, of 2018. The 3rd Quarter, 2018 index value was 204.9. That's a
decline of 4.26 points or 2.04% below the Harrisonburg Home Price Index all
time high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Harrisonburg Market is up
2% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the Harrisonburg Real Estate Market
have gained 2.65% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up
139%.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 4.26 points lower than the 2nd Quarter, 2018
index value of 209.16, resulting in a 2.04% decline for the 3rd Quarter in the
Harrisonburg Market.

The Harrisonburg Home Price Index declined in the last quarter after increasing
in the previous 2 quarters. The current record holders for consecutive declines
in the Home Price Index are Winchester, VA; Trenton, NJ; Peoria, IL; Great
Falls, MT and Fayetteville, NC, with declines in the last 2 consecutive quarters.
The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home Price Index
are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in the last 29
consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Harrisonburg Real
Estate Market was 20% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of
2005. The worst annual change in home values  in the Harrisonburg Market
was -7% in the twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 2010.

The highest growth in home values in the Harrisonburg Real Estate Market over
a three year period was 50% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of
2006. The worst performance over a three year period in the Harrisonburg
Market was -13% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph of the Harrisonburg Home Price Index
(above). For information about Virginia home values, click Real Estate Market
Forecasts in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long term
charts and analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical trends
of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's
detailed research and statistics about Harrisonburg Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Harrisonburg Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index,
as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Harrisonburg Real Estate Market and
hundreds of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a
number of months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Harrisonburg, Virginia

The trend of Harrisonburg Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas
is detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Harrisonburg Home Prices had a rank of 363,
with appreciation of -2.04%. The top performing real estate market during the
3rd Quarter was Sumter, SC, with a rise of 13.55%. The worst market during
that period was Cumberland, MD, with appreciation of -5.75%.
The median for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 1.57%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 1.54%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Harrisonburg Home Prices had a rank of 320, with
appreciation during the year of 2.65%. The top performing market during the
last year was Las Vegas, NV, with an increase of 18.1%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Cumberland, MD, with appreciation of -5.6%.
The median for all markets during this period was 6.14%. The average was
6.07%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Harrisonburg Home
Prices ranked 311, with a total appreciation of 13.0%. The top performing real
estate market during the 5 year period was Reno, NV, with a growth in value of
81%. The worst market during that period was Jacksonville, NC, with
appreciation of -2%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 24%. The average over the
5 years was 28%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Harrisonburg Home
Prices had a rank of 325, with appreciation during the decade of 2%. The top
performing market during the period was Denver, CO, with a rise of 83%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Vineland, NJ, with
appreciation of -19%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 18%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 20%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Harrisonburg Home
Prices had a rank of 180, with total growth over the 20 year period of 84%. The
top performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA,
with an increase of 289%. The worst market during the last 20 years was
Saginaw, MI, with appreciation of 21%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 83%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 92%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Harrisonburg Real
Estate Market is available back to the 2nd Quarter, of 1987. All calculations are
based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Harrisonburg. Real
estate appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each
time period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Saturday, December 29, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.




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