Flagstaff, AZ - House Price Index (HPI)
Flagstaff Real Estate Market Forecast
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Flagstaff, AZ-UT single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics
and appreciation rates are provided below.
Flagstaff Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
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Commentary  2604.56
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Flagstaff, Arizona


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      90%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Flagstaff housing market for the 12
months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2019 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Projection for Flagstaff is 90%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 90% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Flagstaff is 90% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2019 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Flagstaff
Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      86%

The forecast for the trend in the Flagstaff housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Flagstaff is 86%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 86% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Flagstaff is 86% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Flagstaff
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Flagstaff, Arizona


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     0.35%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  6.7%
Last 5 Years                                     41%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
Last 20 Years                                   135%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      0.38%
1989      1.37%
1990      6.24%
1991      7.22%
1992      3.97%
1993      5.78%
1994      10.92%
1995      11.59%
1996      2.48%
1997      4.41%
1998      2.60%
1999      0.72%
2000      5.74%
2001      5.31%
2002      6.99%
2003      10.11%
2004      16.32%
2005      29.80%
2006      12.32%
2007      -1.44%
2008      -7.93%
2009      -12.40%
2010      -8.62%
2011      -10.03%
2012      4.67%
2013      5.92%
2014      9.31%
2015      7.10%
2016      5.11%
2017      11.19%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              0.35%         Rank: 292 of 381 (23rd Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  6.7%           Rank: 163 of 381 (57th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              41%            Rank: 89 of 381 (76th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   13%            Rank: 234 of 381 (38th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            135%          Rank: 61 of 379 (84th Percentile)


The change in home prices for Flagstaff, AZ are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Flagstaff appreciated 0.35% in the Last Quarter. At that
rate, the Flagstaff Real Estate Market was ranked 292nd out of 381
metropolitan Real Estate Markets. Flagstaff was in the 23rd percentile. So
Flagstaff, AZ performed better in the Last Quarter than 23% of the 381
metropolitan areas covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Flagstaff, Arizona

The all time high in the Flagstaff Home Price Index was 270.1 in the 3rd
Quarter, of 2018.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Flagstaff Market is
up 13% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the Flagstaff Real Estate Market
have gained 6.68% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up
290%.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 0.94 points higher than the 2nd Quarter, 2018
index value of 269.14, resulting in a 0.35% rise in the 3rd Quarter for the
Flagstaff Market.

The Flagstaff Home Price Index has increased for the last 2 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in
the last 29 consecutive quarters. The current record holders for consecutive
declines in the Home Price Index are Winchester, VA; Trenton, NJ; Peoria, IL;
Great Falls, MT and Fayetteville, NC, with declines in the last 2 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Flagstaff Real Estate
Market was 30% in the twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 2006. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Flagstaff Market was -15% in the
twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 2010.

The highest growth in home values in the Flagstaff Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 77% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of
2006. The worst performance over a three year period in the Flagstaff Market
was -31% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph of the Flagstaff Home Price Index
(above). For information about Arizona home values, click Real Estate Market
Forecasts in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long term
charts and analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical trends
of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's
detailed research and statistics about Flagstaff Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Flagstaff Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Flagstaff Real Estate Market and hundreds
of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Flagstaff, Arizona

The trend of Flagstaff Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas is
detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Flagstaff Home Prices had a rank of 292, with
appreciation of 0.35%. The top performing real estate market during the 3rd
Quarter was Sumter, SC, with a rise of 13.55%. The worst market during that
period was Cumberland, MD, with appreciation of -5.75%.
The median for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 1.57%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 1.54%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Flagstaff Home Prices had a rank of 163, with
appreciation during the year of 6.68%. The top performing market during the
last year was Las Vegas, NV, with an increase of 18.1%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Cumberland, MD, with appreciation of -5.6%.
The median for all markets during this period was 6.14%. The average was
6.07%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Flagstaff Home Prices
ranked 89, with a total appreciation of 41.1%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Reno, NV, with a growth in value of 81%.
The worst market during that period was Jacksonville, NC, with appreciation of
-2%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 24%. The average over the
5 years was 28%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Flagstaff Home Prices
had a rank of 234, with appreciation during the decade of 13%. The top
performing market during the period was Denver, CO, with a rise of 83%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Vineland, NJ, with
appreciation of -19%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 18%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 20%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2018, Flagstaff Home Prices
had a rank of 61, with total growth over the 20 year period of 135%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA, with an
increase of 289%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Saginaw, MI,
with appreciation of 21%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 83%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 92%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Flagstaff Real Estate
Market is available back to the 4th Quarter, of 1986. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Flagstaff. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Saturday, December 29, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.





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