Commentary  25957
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Wisconsin


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      92%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Wisconsin housing market for the 12 months ending with the 4th Quarter of
2019 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Wisconsin is 92%. In
other words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology
was correct 92% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the
probability for rising house prices in Wisconsin is 92% during this period. If this
Housing Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 4th
Quarter of 2019 than they were in the 4th Quarter of 2018. Check this page
each quarter for updates to the Wisconsin Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      82%

The forecast for the trend in the Wisconsin housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 4th Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Wisconsin is 82%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 82% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Wisconsin is 82% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Wisconsin
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Wisconsin


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     0.07%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  6.6%
Last 5 Years                                     25%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
Last 20 Years                                   73%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1989      5.33%
1990      4.78%
1991      5.41%
1992      5.58%
1993      5.03%
1994      8.89%
1995      6.17%
1996      4.13%
1997      4.41%
1998      3.37%
1999      5.40%
2000      6.40%
2001      5.04%
2002      4.88%
2003      6.84%
2004      7.87%
2005      6.69%
2006      2.35%
2007      0.24%
2008      -2.77%
2009      -3.53%
2010      -1.45%
2011      -2.55%
2012      -0.79%
2013      -0.52%
2014      2.84%
2015      3.32%
2016      4.39%
2017      5.38%
2018      6.64%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              0.07%         Rank: 33 of 51 (36th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  6.6%           Rank: 17 of 51 (68th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              25%            Rank: 29 of 51 (44th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   14%            Rank: 37 of 51 (28th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            73%            Rank: 39 of 51 (24th Percentile)


The change in home prices for Wisconsin are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Wisconsin appreciated 0.07% in the Last Quarter. At that
rate, the Wisconsin Real Estate Market was ranked 33rd out of the 51 real
estate markets of all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia. Wisconsin was
in the 36th percentile. So Wisconsin performed better in the Last Quarter than
36% of these 51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Wisconsin

The data and analysis on this page pertains to Wisconsin, hereinafter referred
to as "Wisconsin". The all time high in the Wisconsin Home Price Index was
362.0 in the 4th Quarter, of 2018.  The Home Price Index indicates that the
Wisconsin Market is up 14% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the
Wisconsin Real Estate Market have gained 6.64% over the last 12 months.
Over the last thirty years, it is up 190%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 0.27 points higher than the 3rd Quarter, 2018
index value of 361.75, resulting in a 0.07% rise in the 4th Quarter for the
Wisconsin Market.

The Wisconsin Home Price Index has increased for the last 19 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 31 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index are West Virginia; Vermont; Rhode Island; Oregon and Ohio, with
declines in the last 1 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Wisconsin Real Estate
Market was 19% in the twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 1983. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Wisconsin Market was -16% in the
twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 1982.

The highest growth in home values in the Wisconsin Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 23% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of
2005. The worst performance over a three year period in the Wisconsin Market
was -10% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Wisconsin Home
Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research
and statistics about Wisconsin Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you
need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Wisconsin Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Wisconsin Real Estate Market. As a result,
Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each
quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Wisconsin

The trend of Wisconsin Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period. The
data and analysis on this page pertains to Wisconsin, hereinafter referred to as
"Wisconsin".

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2018, Wisconsin Home Prices had a rank of 33, with
appreciation of 0.07%. The top performing real estate market during the 4th
Quarter was Hawaii, with a rise of 2.20%. The worst market during that period
was Minnesota, with appreciation of -0.87%.
The median for all markets during the 4th Quarter was 0.32%. The average for
the quarter was 0.45%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Wisconsin Home Prices had a rank of 17, with
appreciation during the year of 6.64%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 13.9%. The worst real estate market
during that period was Alaska, with appreciation of 0.4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.66%. The average was
5.63%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2018, Wisconsin Home Prices
ranked 29, with a total appreciation of 24.7%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 70%.
The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 7%.
The median for all markets during this period was 26%. The average over the 5
years was 29%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2018, Wisconsin Home Prices
had a rank of 37, with appreciation during the decade of 14%. The top
performing market during the period was Colorado, with a rise of 64%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with
appreciation of -7%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 20%. The average over
that time frame was 22%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2018, Wisconsin Home Prices
had a rank of 39, with total growth over the 20 year period of 73%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an
increase of 354%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 43%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 101%. The average  
over that period was 105%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Wisconsin Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Wisconsin. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, April 10, 2019.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.


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Wisconsin - House Price Index (HPI)
LittleBigHomes.com
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Wisconsin single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and
appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
500
5000
50