Commentary  25954
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Virginia


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      85%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Virginia housing market for the 12 months ending with the 4th Quarter of 2019
is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Virginia is 85%. In other words,
when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct
85% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability
for rising house prices in Virginia is 85% during this period. If this Housing
Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 4th Quarter of
2019 than they were in the 4th Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter
for updates to the Virginia Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      85%

The forecast for the trend in the Virginia housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 4th Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
Virginia is 85%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 85% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Virginia is 85% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Virginia Real
Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Virginia


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     0.24%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  3.9%
Last 5 Years                                     18%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Last 20 Years                                   119%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1989      6.28%
1990      -1.31%
1991      2.07%
1992      1.32%
1993      1.09%
1994      -0.14%
1995      2.65%
1996      1.30%
1997      3.03%
1998      3.01%
1999      5.29%
2000      7.40%
2001      8.67%
2002      8.99%
2003      9.93%
2004      17.16%
2005      18.34%
2006      6.31%
2007      -0.86%
2008      -6.75%
2009      -5.06%
2010      -1.55%
2011      -2.01%
2012      -0.08%
2013      1.15%
2014      3.70%
2015      2.43%
2016      3.19%
2017      3.60%
2018      3.89%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              0.24%         Rank: 27 of 51 (48th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  3.9%           Rank: 39 of 51 (24th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              18%            Rank: 38 of 51 (26th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   9%              Rank: 42 of 51 (18th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            119%          Rank: 16 of 51 (70th Percentile)


The change in home prices for Virginia are shown above for five time periods.
For example: Virginia appreciated 0.24% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the
Virginia Real Estate Market was ranked 27th out of the 51 real estate markets
of all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia. Virginia was in the 48th
percentile. So Virginia performed better in the Last Quarter than 48% of these
51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Virginia

The data and analysis on this page pertains to Virginia, hereinafter referred to
as "Virginia". The all time high in the Virginia Home Price Index was 471.0 in the
4th Quarter, of 2018.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Virginia Market
is up 9% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the Virginia Real Estate Market
have gained 3.89% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up
165%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 1.14 points higher than the 3rd Quarter, 2018
index value of 469.81, resulting in a 0.24% rise in the 4th Quarter for the
Virginia Market.

The Virginia Home Price Index has increased for the last 7 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 31 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index are West Virginia; Vermont; Rhode Island; Oregon and Ohio, with
declines in the last 1 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Virginia Real Estate
Market was 21% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2005. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Virginia Market was -7% in the
twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 2010.

The highest growth in home values in the Virginia Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 54% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of
2006. The worst performance over a three year period in the Virginia Market
was -15% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2010.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Virginia Home
Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research
and statistics about Virginia Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you
need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Virginia Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Virginia Real Estate Market. As a result,
Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each
quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Virginia

The trend of Virginia Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period. The
data and analysis on this page pertains to Virginia, hereinafter referred to as
"Virginia".

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2018, Virginia Home Prices had a rank of 27, with
appreciation of 0.24%. The top performing real estate market during the 4th
Quarter was Hawaii, with a rise of 2.20%. The worst market during that period
was Minnesota, with appreciation of -0.87%.
The median for all markets during the 4th Quarter was 0.32%. The average for
the quarter was 0.45%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Virginia Home Prices had a rank of 39, with
appreciation during the year of 3.89%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 13.9%. The worst real estate market
during that period was Alaska, with appreciation of 0.4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.66%. The average was
5.63%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2018, Virginia Home Prices
ranked 38, with a total appreciation of 18.0%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 70%.
The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 7%.
The median for all markets during this period was 26%. The average over the 5
years was 29%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2018, Virginia Home Prices
had a rank of 42, with appreciation during the decade of 9%. The top
performing market during the period was Colorado, with a rise of 64%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with
appreciation of -7%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 20%. The average over
that time frame was 22%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2018, Virginia Home Prices
had a rank of 16, with total growth over the 20 year period of 119%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an
increase of 354%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 43%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 101%. The average  
over that period was 105%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Virginia Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Virginia. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, April 10, 2019.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.


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Virginia - House Price Index (HPI)
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Virginia single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and
appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
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2005
2010
2035
2015
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500
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