Commentary  25952
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Texas


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      85%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Texas housing market for the 12 months ending with the 4th Quarter of 2019 is
UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Texas is 85%. In other words,
when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct
85% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability
for rising house prices in Texas is 85% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2019 than
they were in the 4th Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the Texas Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      77%

The forecast for the trend in the Texas housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 4th Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
Texas is 77%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 77% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Texas is 77% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Texas Real
Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Texas


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     0.34%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  6.3%
Last 5 Years                                     43%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50%
Last 20 Years                                   128%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1989      2.73%
1990      0.26%
1991      3.53%
1992      3.46%
1993      3.33%
1994      0.33%
1995      3.74%
1996      1.42%
1997      3.46%
1998      5.05%
1999      5.86%
2000      5.91%
2001      6.14%
2002      3.78%
2003      2.04%
2004      3.46%
2005      5.00%
2006      5.70%
2007      4.12%
2008      0.72%
2009      -0.78%
2010      -0.42%
2011      -1.08%
2012      2.38%
2013      5.44%
2014      7.46%
2015      7.52%
2016      7.70%
2017      7.85%
2018      6.29%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              0.34%         Rank: 25 of 51 (52nd Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  6.3%           Rank: 21 of 51 (60th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              43%            Rank: 10 of 51 (82nd Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   50%            Rank: 3 of 51 (96th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            128%          Rank: 11 of 51 (80th Percentile)


The change in home prices for Texas are shown above for five time periods.
For example: Texas appreciated 0.34% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the
Texas Real Estate Market was ranked 25th out of the 51 real estate markets of
all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia. Texas was in the 52nd
percentile. So Texas performed better in the Last Quarter than 52% of these 51
real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Texas

The all time high in the Texas Home Price Index was 339.8 in the 4th Quarter, of
2018.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Texas Market is up 50% over
the last 10 years. Home prices in the Texas Real Estate Market have gained
6.29% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 199%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 1.16 points higher than the 3rd Quarter, 2018
index value of 338.63, resulting in a 0.34% rise in the 4th Quarter for the Texas
Market.

The Texas Home Price Index has increased for the last 27 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 31 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index are West Virginia; Vermont; Rhode Island; Oregon and Ohio, with
declines in the last 1 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Texas Real Estate
Market was 18% in the twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 1982. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Texas Market was -10% in the
twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 1988.

The highest growth in home values in the Texas Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 25% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of
2017. The worst performance over a three year period in the Texas Market was
-13% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 1989.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Texas Home
Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research
and statistics about Texas Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you need
them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Texas Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as used
in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price
Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Texas Real Estate Market. As a result, Home
Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Texas

The trend of Texas Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2018, Texas Home Prices had a rank of 25, with
appreciation of 0.34%. The top performing real estate market during the 4th
Quarter was Hawaii, with a rise of 2.20%. The worst market during that period
was Minnesota, with appreciation of -0.87%.
The median for all markets during the 4th Quarter was 0.32%. The average for
the quarter was 0.45%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Texas Home Prices had a rank of 21, with
appreciation during the year of 6.29%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 13.9%. The worst real estate market
during that period was Alaska, with appreciation of 0.4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.66%. The average was
5.63%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2018, Texas Home Prices
ranked 10, with a total appreciation of 42.7%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 70%.
The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 7%.
The median for all markets during this period was 26%. The average over the 5
years was 29%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2018, Texas Home Prices had
a rank of 3, with appreciation during the decade of 50%. The top performing
market during the period was Colorado, with a rise of 64%. The worst real
estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with appreciation
of -7%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 20%. The average over
that time frame was 22%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2018, Texas Home Prices had
a rank of 11, with total growth over the 20 year period of 128%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an
increase of 354%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 43%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 101%. The average  
over that period was 105%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Texas Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Texas. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, April 10, 2019.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.



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