Commentary  25944
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Ohio


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      92%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Ohio housing market for the 12 months ending with the 4th Quarter of 2019 is
UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Ohio is 92%. In other words, when
tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 92% of
the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for
rising house prices in Ohio is 92% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2019 than
they were in the 4th Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the Ohio Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      88%

The forecast for the trend in the Ohio housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 4th Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
Ohio is 88%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting
methodology was correct 88% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com
estimates that the probability for rising house prices in Ohio is 88% during this
period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct, home values will be higher in
the 4th Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 4th Quarter of 2018. Check this
page each quarter for updates to the Ohio Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Ohio


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     -0.27%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  5.9%
Last 5 Years                                     26%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
Last 20 Years                                   43%
Decline From All Time High               0.27%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1989      5.13%
1990      3.68%
1991      4.78%
1992      4.19%
1993      4.07%
1994      4.32%
1995      5.55%
1996      4.14%
1997      4.81%
1998      4.51%
1999      2.88%
2000      4.84%
2001      4.78%
2002      3.21%
2003      3.69%
2004      3.44%
2005      2.84%
2006      -0.22%
2007      -1.64%
2008      -3.30%
2009      -2.67%
2010      -0.98%
2011      -2.99%
2012      -0.96%
2013      0.31%
2014      4.03%
2015      3.75%
2016      4.39%
2017      5.86%
2018      5.91%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              -0.27%        Rank: 41 of 51 (20th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  5.9%           Rank: 23 of 51 (56th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              26%            Rank: 25 of 51 (52nd Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   17%            Rank: 30 of 51 (42nd Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            43%            Rank: 51 of 51 (Last Place)
Decline From All Time High        0.27%

The change in home prices for Ohio are shown above for five time periods. For
example: Ohio appreciated -0.27% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the Ohio
Real Estate Market was ranked 41st out of the 51 real estate markets of all 50
U.S. States and the District of Columbia. Ohio was in the 20th percentile. So
Ohio performed better in the Last Quarter than 20% of these 51 real estate
markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Ohio

The all time high in the Ohio Home Price Index was 298.3 in the 3rd Quarter, of
2018. The 4th Quarter, 2018 index value was 297.5. That's a decline of 0.81
points or 0.27% below the Ohio Home Price Index all time high.  The Home Price
Index indicates that the Ohio Market is up 17% over the last 10 years. Home
prices in the Ohio Real Estate Market have gained 5.91% over the last 12
months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 123%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 0.81 points lower than the 3rd Quarter, 2018
index value of 298.30, resulting in a 0.27% decline for the 4th Quarter in the
Ohio Market.

The Ohio Home Price Index declined in the last quarter after increasing in the
previous 7 quarters. That makes Ohio the current record holder for consecutive
quarterly declines in the Home Price Index (along with West Virginia; Vermont;
Rhode Island and Oregon; which also had 1 consecutive quarterly declines).
The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home Price Index is
Washington DC, with increases in the last 31 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Ohio Real Estate
Market was 15% in the twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 1979. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Ohio Market was -5% in the twelve
months ended with the 1st Quarter of 2010.

The highest growth in home values in the Ohio Real Estate Market over a three
year period was 20% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 1988.
The worst performance over a three year period in the Ohio Market was -10%
in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Ohio Home Price
Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research and
statistics about Ohio Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Ohio Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as used
in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price
Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Ohio Real Estate Market. As a result, Home
Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Ohio

The trend of Ohio Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of Columbia
is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph
identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the average and
median performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2018, Ohio Home Prices had a rank of 41, with
appreciation of -0.27%. The top performing real estate market during the 4th
Quarter was Hawaii, with a rise of 2.20%. The worst market during that period
was Minnesota, with appreciation of -0.87%.
The median for all markets during the 4th Quarter was 0.32%. The average for
the quarter was 0.45%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Ohio Home Prices had a rank of 23, with
appreciation during the year of 5.91%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 13.9%. The worst real estate market
during that period was Alaska, with appreciation of 0.4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.66%. The average was
5.63%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2018, Ohio Home Prices ranked
25, with a total appreciation of 26.3%. The top performing real estate market
during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 70%. The worst
market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 7%.
The median for all markets during this period was 26%. The average over the 5
years was 29%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2018, Ohio Home Prices had a
rank of 30, with appreciation during the decade of 17%. The top performing
market during the period was Colorado, with a rise of 64%. The worst real
estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with appreciation
of -7%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 20%. The average over
that time frame was 22%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2018, Ohio Home Prices had
the worst performance in the country, with total appreciation of 43%. The top
performer during the period was Washington DC, with appreciation of 354%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 101%. The average  
over that period was 105%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Ohio Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Ohio. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, April 10, 2019.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.


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Ohio - House Price Index (HPI)
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Ohio single family home prices in logarithmic scale.
The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation
rates are provided below.
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
100
1000
10