Commentary  25940
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: New Jersey


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      81%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
New Jersey housing market for the 12 months ending with the 4th Quarter of
2019 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for New Jersey is 81%. In
other words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology
was correct 81% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the
probability for rising house prices in New Jersey is 81% during this period. If this
Housing Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 4th
Quarter of 2019 than they were in the 4th Quarter of 2018. Check this page
each quarter for updates to the New Jersey Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      76%

The forecast for the trend in the New Jersey housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 4th Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for New Jersey is 76%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 76% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in New
Jersey is 76% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the New Jersey
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: New Jersey


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     0.08%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  3.4%
Last 5 Years                                     17%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Last 20 Years                                   107%
Decline From All Time High               7.92%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1989      0.41%
1990      -6.25%
1991      -0.59%
1992      1.35%
1993      1.53%
1994      -2.73%
1995      3.03%
1996      0.21%
1997      3.36%
1998      4.00%
1999      6.27%
2000      9.83%
2001      10.33%
2002      12.82%
2003      12.18%
2004      15.20%
2005      14.93%
2006      4.25%
2007      -2.14%
2008      -7.23%
2009      -6.69%
2010      -0.86%
2011      -4.57%
2012      -1.97%
2013      0.70%
2014      3.07%
2015      2.32%
2016      3.41%
2017      3.32%
2018      3.42%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              0.08%         Rank: 32 of 51 (38th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  3.4%           Rank: 42 of 51 (18th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              17%            Rank: 43 of 51 (16th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   2%              Rank: 48 of 51 (6th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            107%          Rank: 25 of 51 (52nd Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        7.92%

The change in home prices for New Jersey are shown above for five time
periods. For example: New Jersey appreciated 0.08% in the Last Quarter. At
that rate, the New Jersey Real Estate Market was ranked 32nd out of the 51
real estate markets of all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia. New
Jersey was in the 38th percentile. So New Jersey performed better in the Last
Quarter than 38% of these 51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: New Jersey

The all time high in the New Jersey Home Price Index was 577.1 in the 1st
Quarter, of 2007. The 4th Quarter, 2018 index value was 531.4. That's a
decline of 45.69 points or 7.92% below the New Jersey Home Price Index all
time high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the New Jersey Market is up 2%
over the last 10 years. Home prices in the New Jersey Real Estate Market have
gained 3.42% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 116%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 0.41 points higher than the 3rd Quarter, 2018
index value of 530.99, resulting in a 0.08% rise in the 4th Quarter for the New
Jersey Market.

The New Jersey Home Price Index has increased for the last 7 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 31 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index are West Virginia; Vermont; Rhode Island; Oregon and Ohio, with
declines in the last 1 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the New Jersey Real
Estate Market was 25% in the twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of
1987. The worst annual change in home values  in the New Jersey Market was
-7% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2009.

The highest growth in home values in the New Jersey Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 70% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of
1987. The worst performance over a three year period in the New Jersey
Market was -16% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2010.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the New Jersey Home
Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research
and statistics about New Jersey Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you
need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the New Jersey Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the New Jersey Real Estate Market. As a result,
Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each
quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: New Jersey

The trend of New Jersey Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2018, New Jersey Home Prices had a rank of 32, with
appreciation of 0.08%. The top performing real estate market during the 4th
Quarter was Hawaii, with a rise of 2.20%. The worst market during that period
was Minnesota, with appreciation of -0.87%.
The median for all markets during the 4th Quarter was 0.32%. The average for
the quarter was 0.45%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, New Jersey Home Prices had a rank of 42, with
appreciation during the year of 3.42%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 13.9%. The worst real estate market
during that period was Alaska, with appreciation of 0.4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.66%. The average was
5.63%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2018, New Jersey Home Prices
ranked 43, with a total appreciation of 16.5%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 70%.
The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 7%.
The median for all markets during this period was 26%. The average over the 5
years was 29%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2018, New Jersey Home Prices
had a rank of 48, with appreciation during the decade of 2%. The top
performing market during the period was Colorado, with a rise of 64%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with
appreciation of -7%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 20%. The average over
that time frame was 22%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2018, New Jersey Home Prices
had a rank of 25, with total growth over the 20 year period of 107%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an
increase of 354%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 43%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 101%. The average  
over that period was 105%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the New Jersey Real
Estate Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are
based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for New Jersey. Real
estate appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each
time period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, April 10, 2019.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.


_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page    Contact Us     Privacy Policy    Terms of Use/Disclosure
Alabama Real Estate Market: Percent Change in Home Prices
New Jersey Real Estate Market & Home Price Forecast
New Jersey Real Estate: Housing Market Trend
New Jersey - House Price Index (HPI)
LittleBigHomes.com
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in New Jersey single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and
appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
500
5000
50