Commentary 25942
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Nevada
Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST
12 Month Forecast: UP
Forecast Accuracy: 85%
LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Nevada housing market for the 12 months ending with the 4th Quarter of 2019
is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Nevada is 85%. In other words,
when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct
85% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability
for rising house prices in Nevada is 85% during this period. If this Housing
Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 4th Quarter of
2019 than they were in the 4th Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter
for updates to the Nevada Real Estate Market Forecast.
3 Year Forecast: UP
Forecast Accuracy: 80%
The forecast for the trend in the Nevada housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 4th Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
Nevada is 80%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 80% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Nevada is 80% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Nevada Real
Estate Market Forecast.
Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Nevada
Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter 1.70%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.9%
Last 5 Years 70%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43%
Last 20 Years 113%
Decline From All Time High 3.45%
Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1989 5.97%
1990 7.32%
1991 5.62%
1992 3.00%
1993 2.21%
1994 0.73%
1995 5.25%
1996 1.72%
1997 2.77%
1998 2.62%
1999 0.74%
2000 4.66%
2001 6.79%
2002 6.54%
2003 13.25%
2004 34.26%
2005 17.70%
2006 2.45%
2007 -8.55%
2008 -25.95%
2009 -16.64%
2010 -9.24%
2011 -12.38%
2012 3.90%
2013 21.74%
2014 11.17%
2015 11.31%
2016 8.00%
2017 12.03%
2018 13.86%
Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter 1.70% Rank: 3 of 51 (96th Percentile)
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.9% Rank: 1 of 51 (100th Percentile)
Last 5 Years 70% Rank: 1 of 51 (100th Percentile)
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . 43% Rank: 6 of 51 (90th Percentile)
Last 20 Years 113% Rank: 21 of 51 (60th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High 3.45%
The change in home prices for Nevada are shown above for five time periods.
For example: Nevada appreciated 1.70% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the
Nevada Real Estate Market was ranked 3rd out of the 51 real estate markets of
all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia. Nevada was in the 96th
percentile. So Nevada performed better in the Last Quarter than 96% of these
51 real estate markets.
Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Nevada
The data and analysis on this page pertains to Nevada, hereinafter referred to
as "Nevada". The all time high in the Nevada Home Price Index was 410.8 in the
3rd Quarter, of 2006. The 4th Quarter, 2018 index value was 396.6. That's a
decline of 14.18 points or 3.45% below the Nevada Home Price Index all time
high. The Home Price Index indicates that the Nevada Market is up 43% over
the last 10 years. Home prices in the Nevada Real Estate Market have gained
13.86% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 206%.
The 4th Quarter index value was 6.62 points higher than the 3rd Quarter, 2018
index value of 389.95, resulting in a 1.70% rise in the 4th Quarter for the
Nevada Market.
The Nevada Home Price Index has increased for the last 26 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 31 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index are West Virginia; Vermont; Rhode Island; Oregon and Ohio, with
declines in the last 1 consecutive quarters.
The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Nevada Real Estate
Market was 39% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 1976. The
worst annual change in home values in the Nevada Market was -26% in the
twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2008.
The highest growth in home values in the Nevada Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 80% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of
2006. The worst performance over a three year period in the Nevada Market
was -46% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2010.
This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Nevada Home
Price Index. Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research
and statistics about Nevada Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you
need them.
All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Nevada Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.
Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Nevada Real Estate Market. As a result,
Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each
quarter.
Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Nevada
The trend of Nevada Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed. Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period. The
data and analysis on this page pertains to Nevada, hereinafter referred to as
"Nevada".
Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2018, Nevada Home Prices had a rank of 3, with
appreciation of 1.70%. The top performing real estate market during the 4th
Quarter was Hawaii, with a rise of 2.20%. The worst market during that period
was Minnesota, with appreciation of -0.87%.
The median for all markets during the 4th Quarter was 0.32%. The average for
the quarter was 0.45%.
Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Nevada Home Prices outperformed every state, with
appreciation during the year of 13.86%. The worst performer during that period
was Alaska, with appreciation of 0.4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.66%. The average was
5.63%.
Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2018, Nevada Home Prices
outperformed every state, with appreciation of 70.5%. The worst performer
during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 7%.
The median for all markets during this period was 26%. The average over the 5
years was 29%.
Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2018, Nevada Home Prices
had a rank of 6, with appreciation during the decade of 43%. The top
performing market during the period was Colorado, with a rise of 64%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with
appreciation of -7%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 20%. The average over
that time frame was 22%.
Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2018, Nevada Home Prices
had a rank of 21, with total growth over the 20 year period of 113%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an
increase of 354%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 43%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 101%. The average
over that period was 105%.
Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Nevada Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Nevada. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)
Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, April 10, 2019.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.
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Nevada Real Estate: Housing Market Trend
Nevada - House Price Index (HPI)
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Nevada single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100. Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and
appreciation rates are provided below.
1975