Commentary  25928
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Massachusetts


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      85%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Massachusetts housing market for the 12 months ending with the 4th Quarter of
2019 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Massachusetts is 85%. In
other words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology
was correct 85% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the
probability for rising house prices in Massachusetts is 85% during this period. If
this Housing Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 4th
Quarter of 2019 than they were in the 4th Quarter of 2018. Check this page
each quarter for updates to the Massachusetts Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      77%

The forecast for the trend in the Massachusetts housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 4th Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Massachusetts is 77%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 77% of the time.
Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house
prices in Massachusetts is 77% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home values will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2021 than
they were in the 4th Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the Massachusetts Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Massachusetts


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     -0.13%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  5.7%
Last 5 Years                                     30%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26%
Last 20 Years                                   134%
Decline From All Time High               0.13%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1989      0.21%
1990      -7.98%
1991      -2.26%
1992      -0.76%
1993      0.90%
1994      -1.80%
1995      4.71%
1996      3.11%
1997      5.49%
1998      7.59%
1999      12.29%
2000      14.22%
2001      11.56%
2002      12.29%
2003      10.07%
2004      10.87%
2005      6.92%
2006      -1.62%
2007      -4.09%
2008      -5.90%
2009      -3.96%
2010      -0.35%
2011      -1.93%
2012      0.21%
2013      3.18%
2014      4.80%
2015      4.59%
2016      5.30%
2017      6.31%
2018      5.66%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              -0.13%        Rank: 38 of 51 (26th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  5.7%           Rank: 26 of 51 (50th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              30%            Rank: 19 of 51 (64th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   26%            Rank: 18 of 51 (66th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            134%          Rank: 9 of 51 (84th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        0.13%

The change in home prices for Massachusetts are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Massachusetts appreciated -0.13% in the Last Quarter.
At that rate, the Massachusetts Real Estate Market was ranked 38th out of the
51 real estate markets of all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia.
Massachusetts was in the 26th percentile. So Massachusetts performed better
in the Last Quarter than 26% of these 51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Massachusetts

The data and analysis on this page pertains to Massachusetts, hereinafter
referred to as "Massachusetts". The all time high in the Massachusetts Home
Price Index was 809.2 in the 3rd Quarter, of 2018. The 4th Quarter, 2018 index
value was 808.2. That's a decline of 1.08 points or 0.13% below the
Massachusetts Home Price Index all time high.  The Home Price Index indicates
that the Massachusetts Market is up 26% over the last 10 years. Home prices in
the Massachusetts Real Estate Market have gained 5.66% over the last 12
months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 154%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 1.08 points lower than the 3rd Quarter, 2018
index value of 809.23, resulting in a 0.13% decline for the 4th Quarter in the
Massachusetts Market.

The Massachusetts Home Price Index declined in the last quarter after
increasing in the previous 25 quarters. That makes Massachusetts the current
record holder for consecutive quarterly declines in the Home Price Index (along
with West Virginia; Vermont; Rhode Island and Oregon; which also had 1
consecutive quarterly declines). The current record holder for consecutive
increases in the Home Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last
31 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Massachusetts Real
Estate Market was 28% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of
1985. The worst annual change in home values  in the Massachusetts Market
was -8% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 1990.

The highest growth in home values in the Massachusetts Real Estate Market
over a three year period was 88% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter
of 1986. The worst performance over a three year period in the Massachusetts
Market was -13% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2009.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Massachusetts
Home Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed
research and statistics about Massachusetts Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Massachusetts Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index,
as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Massachusetts Real Estate Market. As a
result, Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of
each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Massachusetts

The trend of Massachusetts Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period. The
data and analysis on this page pertains to Massachusetts, hereinafter referred
to as "Massachusetts".

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2018, Massachusetts Home Prices had a rank of 38,
with appreciation of -0.13%. The top performing real estate market during the
4th Quarter was Hawaii, with a rise of 2.20%. The worst market during that
period was Minnesota, with appreciation of -0.87%.
The median for all markets during the 4th Quarter was 0.32%. The average for
the quarter was 0.45%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Massachusetts Home Prices had a rank of 26, with
appreciation during the year of 5.66%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 13.9%. The worst real estate market
during that period was Alaska, with appreciation of 0.4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.66%. The average was
5.63%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2018, Massachusetts Home
Prices ranked 19, with a total appreciation of 29.7%. The top performing real
estate market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of
70%. The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of
7%.
The median for all markets during this period was 26%. The average over the 5
years was 29%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2018, Massachusetts Home
Prices had a rank of 18, with appreciation during the decade of 26%. The top
performing market during the period was Colorado, with a rise of 64%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with
appreciation of -7%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 20%. The average over
that time frame was 22%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2018, Massachusetts Home
Prices had a rank of 9, with total growth over the 20 year period of 134%. The
top performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with
an increase of 354%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 43%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 101%. The average  
over that period was 105%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Massachusetts Real
Estate Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are
based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Massachusetts. Real
estate appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each
time period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, April 10, 2019.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.


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Massachusetts - House Price Index (HPI)
LittleBigHomes.com
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Massachusetts single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics
and appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
500
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50