Commentary  25920
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Hawaii


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      81%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Hawaii housing market for the 12 months ending with the 4th Quarter of 2019 is
UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Hawaii is 81%. In other words,
when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct
81% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability
for rising house prices in Hawaii is 81% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2019 than
they were in the 4th Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the Hawaii Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      68%

The forecast for the trend in the Hawaii housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 4th Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
Hawaii is 68%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 68% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Hawaii is 68% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Hawaii Real
Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Hawaii


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     2.20%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  6.9%
Last 5 Years                                     35%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33%
Last 20 Years                                   186%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1989      21.94%
1990      23.87%
1991      4.83%
1992      0.55%
1993      0.34%
1994      -2.41%
1995      1.05%
1996      -8.87%
1997      -4.08%
1998      0.79%
1999      -3.05%
2000      6.55%
2001      8.18%
2002      8.41%
2003      14.48%
2004      25.75%
2005      24.24%
2006      6.25%
2007      0.52%
2008      -7.55%
2009      -8.85%
2010      -0.10%
2011      -1.43%
2012      2.29%
2013      7.74%
2014      6.20%
2015      5.72%
2016      6.57%
2017      5.48%
2018      6.94%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              2.20%         Rank: 1 of 51 (100th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  6.9%           Rank: 13 of 51 (76th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              35%            Rank: 15 of 51 (72nd Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   33%            Rank: 12 of 51 (78th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            186%          Rank: 3 of 51 (96th Percentile)


The change in home prices for Hawaii are shown above for five time periods.
For example: Hawaii appreciated 2.20% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the
Hawaii Real Estate Market was ranked 1st out of the 51 real estate markets of
all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia. Hawaii was in the 100th
percentile. So Hawaii performed better in the Last Quarter than 100% of these
51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Hawaii

The all time high in the Hawaii Home Price Index was 659.2 in the 4th Quarter,
of 2018.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Hawaii Market is up 33% over
the last 10 years. Home prices in the Hawaii Real Estate Market have gained
6.94% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 296%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 14.19 points higher than the 3rd Quarter,
2018 index value of 644.96, resulting in a 2.20% rise in the 4th Quarter for the
Hawaii Market.

The Hawaii Home Price Index has increased for the last 26 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 31 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index are West Virginia; Vermont; Rhode Island; Oregon and Ohio, with
declines in the last 1 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Hawaii Real Estate
Market was 75% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 1982. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Hawaii Market was -54% in the
twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 1981.

The highest growth in home values in the Hawaii Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 86% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of
1990. The worst performance over a three year period in the Hawaii Market was
-17% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2010.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Hawaii Home
Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research
and statistics about Hawaii Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you need
them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Hawaii Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as used
in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price
Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Hawaii Real Estate Market. As a result, Home
Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Hawaii

The trend of Hawaii Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2018, Hawaii Home Prices outperformed every state,
with appreciation of 2.20% during the quarter. The worst performer during that
period was Minnesota, with appreciation of -0.87%.
The median for all markets during the 4th Quarter was 0.32%. The average for
the quarter was 0.45%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Hawaii Home Prices had a rank of 13, with
appreciation during the year of 6.94%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 13.9%. The worst real estate market
during that period was Alaska, with appreciation of 0.4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.66%. The average was
5.63%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2018, Hawaii Home Prices
ranked 15, with a total appreciation of 35.0%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 70%.
The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 7%.
The median for all markets during this period was 26%. The average over the 5
years was 29%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2018, Hawaii Home Prices had
a rank of 12, with appreciation during the decade of 33%. The top performing
market during the period was Colorado, with a rise of 64%. The worst real
estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with appreciation
of -7%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 20%. The average over
that time frame was 22%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2018, Hawaii Home Prices had
a rank of 3, with total growth over the 20 year period of 186%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an
increase of 354%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 43%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 101%. The average  
over that period was 105%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Hawaii Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Hawaii. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, April 10, 2019.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.


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Hawaii Real Estate Market & Home Price Forecast
Hawaii Real Estate: Housing Market Trend
Hawaii - House Price Index (HPI)
LittleBigHomes.com
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Hawaii single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and
appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
100
1000
10