Commentary  25915
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Connecticut


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      83%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Connecticut housing market for the 12 months ending with the 4th Quarter of
2019 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Connecticut is 83%. In
other words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology
was correct 83% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the
probability for rising house prices in Connecticut is 83% during this period. If
this Housing Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 4th
Quarter of 2019 than they were in the 4th Quarter of 2018. Check this page
each quarter for updates to the Connecticut Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      77%

The forecast for the trend in the Connecticut housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 4th Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Connecticut is 77%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 77% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Connecticut is 77% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is
correct, home values will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2021 than they were in
the 4th Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the
Connecticut Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Connecticut


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     -0.28%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  1.4%
Last 5 Years                                     7%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -7%
Last 20 Years                                   67%
Decline From All Time High               13.97%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1989      -1.71%
1990      -8.02%
1991      -1.76%
1992      -1.28%
1993      -1.01%
1994      -5.51%
1995      3.24%
1996      -0.75%
1997      3.20%
1998      5.31%
1999      5.83%
2000      8.36%
2001      9.12%
2002      10.18%
2003      9.22%
2004      12.50%
2005      11.09%
2006      2.48%
2007      -1.06%
2008      -6.25%
2009      -5.26%
2010      -1.05%
2011      -3.29%
2012      -2.03%
2013      -1.76%
2014      1.37%
2015      0.91%
2016      1.86%
2017      1.34%
2018      1.40%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              -0.28%        Rank: 43 of 51 (16th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  1.4%           Rank: 50 of 51 (2nd Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              7%              Rank: 51 of 51 (Last Place)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   -7%            Rank: 51 of 51 (Last Place)
Last 20 Years                            67%            Rank: 42 of 51 (18th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        13.97%

The change in home prices for Connecticut are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Connecticut appreciated -0.28% in the Last Quarter. At
that rate, the Connecticut Real Estate Market was ranked 43rd out of the 51
real estate markets of all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia.
Connecticut was in the 16th percentile. So Connecticut performed better in the
Last Quarter than 16% of these 51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Connecticut

The data and analysis on this page pertains to Connecticut, hereinafter
referred to as "Connecticut". The all time high in the Connecticut Home Price
Index was 473.0 in the 1st Quarter, of 2007. The 4th Quarter, 2018 index value
was 407.0. That's a decline of 66.06 points or 13.97% below the Connecticut
Home Price Index all time high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the
Connecticut Market is down 7% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the
Connecticut Real Estate Market have gained 1.40% over the last 12 months.
Over the last thirty years, it is up 53%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 1.15 points lower than the 3rd Quarter, 2018
index value of 408.11, resulting in a 0.28% decline for the 4th Quarter in the
Connecticut Market.

The Connecticut Home Price Index declined in the last quarter after increasing
in the previous 2 quarters. That makes Connecticut the current record holder
for consecutive quarterly declines in the Home Price Index (along with West
Virginia; Vermont; Rhode Island and Oregon; which also had 1 consecutive
quarterly declines). The current record holder for consecutive increases in the
Home Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 31 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Connecticut Real
Estate Market was 30% in the twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of
1979. The worst annual change in home values  in the Connecticut Market was
-8% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 1990.

The highest growth in home values in the Connecticut Real Estate Market over
a three year period was 81% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of
1987. The worst performance over a three year period in the Connecticut
Market was -14% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Connecticut
Home Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed
research and statistics about Connecticut Home Prices will be at your fingertips
when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Connecticut Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Connecticut Real Estate Market. As a result,
Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each
quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Connecticut

The trend of Connecticut Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period. The
data and analysis on this page pertains to Connecticut, hereinafter referred to
as "Connecticut".

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2018, Connecticut Home Prices had a rank of 43, with
appreciation of -0.28%. The top performing real estate market during the 4th
Quarter was Hawaii, with a rise of 2.20%. The worst market during that period
was Minnesota, with appreciation of -0.87%.
The median for all markets during the 4th Quarter was 0.32%. The average for
the quarter was 0.45%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Connecticut Home Prices had a rank of 50, with
appreciation during the year of 1.40%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 13.9%. The worst real estate market
during that period was Alaska, with appreciation of 0.4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.66%. The average was
5.63%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2018, Connecticut Home Prices
had the worst performance in the country, with a total appreciation of 7.1%. The
top performer during the 5 year period was Nevada, with appreciation of 70%.
The median for all markets during this period was 26%. The average over the 5
years was 29%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2018, Connecticut Home
Prices had the worst performance in the country, with appreciation during the
decade of -7%. The top performer during the period was Colorado, with
appreciation of 64%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 20%. The average over
that time frame was 22%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2018, Connecticut Home
Prices had a rank of 42, with total growth over the 20 year period of 67%. The
top performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with
an increase of 354%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 43%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 101%. The average  
over that period was 105%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Connecticut Real
Estate Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are
based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Connecticut. Real
estate appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each
time period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, April 10, 2019.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.


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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Connecticut single family home prices in logarithmic
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appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
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1995
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2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
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