Commentary  25912
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Arizona


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      83%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Arizona housing market for the 12 months ending with the 4th Quarter of 2019
is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Arizona is 83%. In other words,
when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct
83% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability
for rising house prices in Arizona is 83% during this period. If this Housing
Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 4th Quarter of
2019 than they were in the 4th Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter
for updates to the Arizona Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      78%

The forecast for the trend in the Arizona housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 4th Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
Arizona is 78%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 78% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Arizona is 78% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Arizona Real
Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Arizona


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     0.98%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  8.9%
Last 5 Years                                     44%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27%
Last 20 Years                                   124%
Decline From All Time High               1.87%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1989      -0.51%
1990      -0.85%
1991      4.90%
1992      1.52%
1993      3.41%
1994      5.20%
1995      6.18%
1996      3.79%
1997      4.90%
1998      4.97%
1999      4.87%
2000      6.40%
2001      6.37%
2002      5.68%
2003      7.32%
2004      16.12%
2005      35.69%
2006      7.77%
2007      -5.19%
2008      -18.67%
2009      -14.96%
2010      -8.82%
2011      -7.33%
2012      8.11%
2013      13.92%
2014      6.41%
2015      6.93%
2016      6.67%
2017      8.76%
2018      8.93%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              0.98%         Rank: 15 of 51 (72nd Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  8.9%           Rank: 4 of 51 (94th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              44%            Rank: 9 of 51 (84th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   27%            Rank: 17 of 51 (68th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            124%          Rank: 13 of 51 (76th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        1.87%

The change in home prices for Arizona are shown above for five time periods.
For example: Arizona appreciated 0.98% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the
Arizona Real Estate Market was ranked 15th out of the 51 real estate markets
of all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia. Arizona was in the 72nd
percentile. So Arizona performed better in the Last Quarter than 72% of these
51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Arizona

The data and analysis on this page pertains to Arizona, hereinafter referred to
as "Arizona". The all time high in the Arizona Home Price Index was 426.2 in the
4th Quarter, of 2006. The 4th Quarter, 2018 index value was 418.3. That's a
decline of 7.99 points or 1.87% below the Arizona Home Price Index all time
high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Arizona Market is up 27% over
the last 10 years. Home prices in the Arizona Real Estate Market have gained
8.93% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 211%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 4.06 points higher than the 3rd Quarter, 2018
index value of 414.19, resulting in a 0.98% rise in the 4th Quarter for the
Arizona Market.

The Arizona Home Price Index has increased for the last 27 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 31 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index are West Virginia; Vermont; Rhode Island; Oregon and Ohio, with
declines in the last 1 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Arizona Real Estate
Market was 36% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2005. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Arizona Market was -19% in the
twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2008.

The highest growth in home values in the Arizona Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 75% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of
2006. The worst performance over a three year period in the Arizona Market
was -38% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Arizona Home
Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research
and statistics about Arizona Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you
need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Arizona Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Arizona Real Estate Market. As a result,
Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each
quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Arizona

The trend of Arizona Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period. The
data and analysis on this page pertains to Arizona, hereinafter referred to as
"Arizona".

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2018, Arizona Home Prices had a rank of 15, with
appreciation of 0.98%. The top performing real estate market during the 4th
Quarter was Hawaii, with a rise of 2.20%. The worst market during that period
was Minnesota, with appreciation of -0.87%.
The median for all markets during the 4th Quarter was 0.32%. The average for
the quarter was 0.45%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Arizona Home Prices had a rank of 4, with
appreciation during the year of 8.93%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 13.9%. The worst real estate market
during that period was Alaska, with appreciation of 0.4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.66%. The average was
5.63%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2018, Arizona Home Prices
ranked 9, with a total appreciation of 43.8%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 70%.
The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 7%.
The median for all markets during this period was 26%. The average over the 5
years was 29%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2018, Arizona Home Prices
had a rank of 17, with appreciation during the decade of 27%. The top
performing market during the period was Colorado, with a rise of 64%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with
appreciation of -7%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 20%. The average over
that time frame was 22%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2018, Arizona Home Prices
had a rank of 13, with total growth over the 20 year period of 124%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an
increase of 354%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 43%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 101%. The average  
over that period was 105%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Arizona Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Arizona. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, April 10, 2019.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.



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Arizona - House Price Index (HPI)
LittleBigHomes.com
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Arizona single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and
appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
100
1000
10