Winchester, VA - House Price Index (HPI)
Winchester Real Estate Market - Home Price Forecast
100
1000
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Winchester, VA-WV single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics
and appreciation rates are provided below.
10
Winchester Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
Commentary  575.56
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Winchester, Virginia


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      77%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Winchester housing market for the 12
months ending with the 4th Quarter of 2018 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Projection for Winchester is 77%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 77% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Winchester is 77% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2018 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Winchester
Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      70%

The forecast for the trend in the Winchester housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 4th Quarter of 2020 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Winchester is 70%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 70% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Winchester is 70% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2020 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Winchester
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Winchester, Virginia


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                         0.14%
Last Year                              2.6%
Last 5 Years                         23%
Last 10 Years                       -10%
Last 20 Years                       90%
Decline From All Time High   18.28%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988        n/a
1989        n/a
1990      0.25%
1991      2.71%
1992      0.57%
1993      1.12%
1994      -3.64%
1995      3.26%
1996      1.36%
1997      5.02%
1998      0.78%
1999      2.24%
2000      5.81%
2001      7.42%
2002      10.49%
2003      12.31%
2004      22.20%
2005      23.82%
2006      4.42%
2007      -8.13%
2008      -16.68%
2009      -10.83%
2010      -1.74%
2011      -0.99%
2012      0.78%
2013      3.77%
2014      4.43%
2015      2.67%
2016      8.03%
2017      2.63%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              0.14%         Rank: 253 of 381 (33rd Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  2.6%           Rank: 305 of 381 (20th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              23%            Rank: 146 of 381 (61st Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   -10%           Rank: 347 of 381 (8th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            90%            Rank: 148 of 379 (61st Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        18.28%

The change in home prices for Winchester, VA-WV are shown above for five
time periods. For example: Winchester appreciated 0.14% in the Last Quarter.
At that rate, the Winchester Real Estate Market was ranked 253rd out of 381
metropolitan Real Estate Markets. Winchester was in the 33rd percentile. So
Winchester, VA performed better in the Last Quarter than 33% of the 381
metropolitan areas covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Winchester, Virginia

The all time high in the Winchester Home Price Index was 259.2 in the 2nd
Quarter, of 2006. The 4th Quarter, 2017 index value was 211.8. That's a
decline of 47.38 points or 18.28% below the Winchester Home Price Index all
time high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Winchester Market is down
10% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the Winchester Real Estate Market
have gained 2.63% over the last 12 months.

The 4th Quarter index value was 0.30 points higher than the 3rd Quarter, 2017
index value of 211.52, resulting in a 0.14% rise in the 4th Quarter for the
Winchester Market.

The Winchester Home Price Index has increased for the last 3 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in
the last 26 consecutive quarters. The current record holders for consecutive
declines in the Home Price Index are Victoria, TX; Topeka, KS; Texarkana,
TX-AR; Springfield, MA and Peoria, IL, with declines in the last 2 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Winchester Real
Estate Market was 27% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of
2005. The worst annual change in home values  in the Winchester Market was
-17% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2008.

The highest growth in home values in the Winchester Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 72% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of
2006. The worst performance over a three year period in the Winchester
Market was -32% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2009.

This page provides a long term graph of the Winchester Home Price Index
(above). For information about Virginia home values, click Real Estate Market
Forecasts in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long term
charts and analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical trends
of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's
detailed research and statistics about Winchester Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Winchester Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Winchester Real Estate Market and
hundreds of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a
number of months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Winchester, Virginia

The trend of Winchester Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas
is detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2017, Winchester Home Prices had a rank of 253,
with appreciation of 0.14%. The top performing real estate market during the
4th Quarter was Gadsden, AL, with a rise of 13.11%. The worst market during
that period was Hinesville, GA, with appreciation of -6.79%.
The median for all cities during the 4th Quarter was 0.75%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 0.69%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Winchester Home Prices had a rank of 305, with
appreciation during the year of 2.63%. The top performing market during the
last year was Sebastian, FL, with an increase of 16.4%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Goldsboro, NC, with appreciation of -6.9%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.37%. The average was
5.53%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2017, Winchester Home Prices
ranked 146, with a total appreciation of 23.4%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Reno, NV, with a growth in value of 94%.
The worst market during that period was Goldsboro, NC, with appreciation of
-5%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 19%. The average over the
5 years was 25%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2017, Winchester Home Prices
had a rank of 347, with appreciation during the decade of -10%. The top
performing market during the period was Denver, CO, with a rise of 65%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Atlantic City, NJ,
with appreciation of -27%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 7%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 8%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2017, Winchester Home Prices
had a rank of 148, with total growth over the 20 year period of 90%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA, with an
increase of 280%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Saginaw, MI,
with appreciation of 18%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 79%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 89%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Winchester Real
Estate Market is available back to the 2nd Quarter, of 1990. All calculations are
based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Winchester. Real
estate appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each
time period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Thursday, May 3, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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