Wilmington, NC - House Price Index (HPI)
Wilmington Real Estate Market - Home Price Forecast (NC)
100
1000
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Wilmington, NC single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics
and appreciation rates are provided below.
10
Wilmington Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
Commentary  1336.56
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Wilmington, North Carolina


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      90%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Wilmington housing market for the 12
months ending with the 1st Quarter of 2019 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Projection for Wilmington is 90%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 90% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Wilmington is 90% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 1st Quarter of 2019 than they were in the 1st
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Wilmington
Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      86%

The forecast for the trend in the Wilmington housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 1st Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Wilmington is 86%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 86% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Wilmington is 86% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 1st Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 1st
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Wilmington
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Wilmington, North Carolina


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                         -0.80%
Last Year                              7.4%
Last 5 Years                         28%
Last 10 Years                       -4%
Last 20 Years                       79%
Decline From All Time High   3.99%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      4.93%
1989      6.35%
1990      2.85%
1991      4.30%
1992      2.82%
1993      4.24%
1994      8.27%
1995      8.93%
1996      5.44%
1997      7.14%
1998      4.33%
1999      -0.71%
2000      4.41%
2001      4.21%
2002      2.73%
2003      2.71%
2004      11.69%
2005      21.75%
2006      13.71%
2007      2.90%
2008      -5.24%
2009      -6.84%
2010      -5.24%
2011      -7.16%
2012      -2.96%
2013      0.50%
2014      6.29%
2015      5.21%
2016      4.34%
2017      9.52%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              -0.80%        Rank: 327 of 381 (14th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  7.4%           Rank: 121 of 381 (68th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              28%            Rank: 128 of 381 (66th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   -4%            Rank: 319 of 381 (16th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            79%            Rank: 190 of 379 (50th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        3.99%

The change in home prices for Wilmington, NC are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Wilmington appreciated -0.80% in the Last Quarter. At
that rate, the Wilmington Real Estate Market was ranked 327th out of 381
metropolitan Real Estate Markets. Wilmington was in the 14th percentile. So
Wilmington, NC performed better in the Last Quarter than 14% of the 381
metropolitan areas covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Wilmington, North Carolina

The all time high in the Wilmington Home Price Index was 229.5 in the 4th
Quarter, of 2007. The 1st Quarter, 2018 index value was 220.4. That's a
decline of 9.16 points or 3.99% below the Wilmington Home Price Index all time
high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Wilmington Market is down 4%
over the last 10 years. Home prices in the Wilmington Real Estate Market have
gained 7.40% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 211%.

The 1st Quarter index value was 1.78 points lower than the 4th Quarter, 2017
index value of 222.16, resulting in a 0.80% decline for the 1st Quarter in the
Wilmington Market.

The Wilmington Home Price Index declined in the last quarter after increasing in
the previous 11 quarters. The current record holders for consecutive declines
in the Home Price Index are Tallahassee, FL; Syracuse, NY; Sioux City, IA;
Shreveport, LA and Peoria, IL, with declines in the last 2 consecutive quarters.
The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home Price Index
are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in the last 27
consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Wilmington Real
Estate Market was 23% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of
2006. The worst annual change in home values  in the Wilmington Market was
-10% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2010.

The highest growth in home values in the Wilmington Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 55% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of
2006. The worst performance over a three year period in the Wilmington Market
was -21% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2012.

This page provides a long term graph of the Wilmington Home Price Index
(above). For information about North Carolina home values, click Real Estate
Market Forecasts in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long
term charts and analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical
trends of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then
LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research and statistics about Wilmington Home
Prices will be at your fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Wilmington Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Wilmington Real Estate Market and hundreds
of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Wilmington, North Carolina

The trend of Wilmington Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas is
detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 1st Quarter of 2018, Wilmington Home Prices had a rank of 327, with
appreciation of -0.80%. The top performing real estate market during the 1st
Quarter was Goldsboro, NC, with a rise of 9.78%. The worst market during that
period was Cumberland, MD, with appreciation of -9.30%.
The median for all cities during the 1st Quarter was 1.15%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 0.97%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Wilmington Home Prices had a rank of 121, with
appreciation during the year of 7.40%. The top performing market during the
last year was Boise City, ID, with an increase of 15.3%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Farmington, NM, with appreciation of -6.0%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.97%. The average was
5.82%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2018, Wilmington Home Prices
ranked 128, with a total appreciation of 28.3%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Reno, NV, with a growth in value of 90%.
The worst market during that period was Farmington, NM, with appreciation of
-4%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 20%. The average over the
5 years was 26%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, Wilmington Home Prices
had a rank of 319, with appreciation during the decade of -4%. The top
performing market during the period was Denver, CO, with a rise of 69%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Atlantic City, NJ,
with appreciation of -26%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 8%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 9%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, Wilmington Home Prices
had a rank of 190, with total growth over the 20 year period of 79%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA, with an
increase of 282%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Rockford, IL,
with appreciation of 18%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 79%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 88%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Wilmington Real Estate
Market is available back to the 4th Quarter, of 1985. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Wilmington. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Monday, July 30, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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