Wilmington, NC - House Price Index (HPI)
Wilmington Real Estate Market - Home Price Forecast (NC)
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Wilmington, NC single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Updated Friday, July 24, 2015. Real
estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation rates are provided below.
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Wilmington Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
Commentary  18814
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Statistics: Wilmington, North Carolina


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      89%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Wilmington housing market for the 12
months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2015 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Projection for Wilmington is 89%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 89% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Wilmington is 89% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2015 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2014. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Wilmington
Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      88%

The forecast for the trend in the Wilmington housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2017 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Wilmington is 88%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 88% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Wilmington is 88% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2017 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2014. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Wilmington
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Data: Wilmington, North Carolina


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                         2.65%
Last Year                              4.7%
Last 5 Years                         -9%
Last 10 Years                       19%
Last 20 Years                       93%
Decline From All Time High   19.17%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1984        n/a
1985        n/a
1986      2.07%
1987      3.11%
1988      4.76%
1989      6.38%
1990      2.96%
1991      4.14%
1992      2.93%
1993      4.19%
1994      8.22%
1995      9.01%
1996      5.53%
1997      7.06%
1998      4.34%
1999      -0.73%
2000      4.39%
2001      4.22%
2002      2.71%
2003      2.73%
2004      11.67%
2005      21.78%
2006      13.67%
2007      3.02%
2008      -5.04%
2009      -6.90%
2010      -5.19%
2011      -6.89%
2012      -2.86%
2013      2.23%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              2.65%         Rank: 90 of 381 (76th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  4.7%           Rank: 154 of 381 (59th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              -9%             Rank: 354 of 381 (7th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   19%            Rank: 114 of 381 (70th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            93%            Rank: 110 of 378 (71st Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        19.17%

The change in home prices for Wilmington, NC are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Wilmington appreciated 2.65% in the Last Quarter. At
that rate, the Wilmington Real Estate Market was ranked 90th out of 381
metropolitan Real Estate Markets. Wilmington was in the 76th percentile. So
Wilmington, NC performed better in the Last Quarter than 76% of the 381
metropolitan areas covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Statistics: Wilmington, North Carolina

The all time high in the Wilmington Home Price Index was 229.7 in the 4th
Quarter, of 2007. The 3rd Quarter, 2014 index value was 185.7. That's a
decline of 44.03 points or 19.17% below the Wilmington Home Price Index all
time high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Wilmington Market is up
19% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the Wilmington Real Estate Market
have gained 4.67% over the last 12 months.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 4.80 points higher than the 2nd Quarter, 2014
index value of 180.86, resulting in a 2.65% rise in the 3rd Quarter for the
Wilmington Market.

The Wilmington Home Price Index has increased for the last 6 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in
the last 13 consecutive quarters. The current record holder for consecutive
declines in the Home Price Index is Terre Haute, IN, with declines in the last 3
consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Wilmington Real
Estate Market was 23% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of
2006. The worst annual change in home values  in the Wilmington Market was
-10% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2010.

The highest growth in home values in the Wilmington Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 55% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of
2006. The worst performance over a three year period in the Wilmington Market
was -21% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2012.

This page provides a long term graph of the Wilmington Home Price Index
(above). For information about North Carolina home values, click Real Estate
Market Forecasts in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long
term charts and analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical
trends of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then
LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research and statistics about Wilmington Home
Prices will be at your fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Wilmington Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Wilmington Real Estate Market and hundreds
of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Data: Wilmington, North Carolina

The trend of Wilmington Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas is
detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Wilmington Home Prices had a rank of 90, with
appreciation of 2.65%. The top performing real estate market during the 3rd
Quarter was Johnstown, PA, with a rise of 7.10%. The worst market during that
period was Farmington, NM, with appreciation of -4.09%.
The median for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 1.44%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 1.49%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Wilmington Home Prices had a rank of 154, with
appreciation during the year of 4.67%. The top performing market during the
last year was Madera, CA, with an increase of 19.4%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Jacksonville, NC, with appreciation of -4.5%.
The median for all markets during this period was 3.94%. The average was
4.71%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Wilmington Home Prices
ranked 354, with a total appreciation of -9.4%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Merced, CA, with a growth in value of 45%.
The worst market during that period was Ocala, FL, with appreciation of -16%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 1%. The average over the
5 years was 3%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Wilmington Home Prices
had a rank of 114, with appreciation during the decade of 19%. The top
performing market during the period was Midland, TX, with a rise of 129%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Las Vegas, NV, with
appreciation of -27%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 10%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 11%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Wilmington Home Prices
had a rank of 110, with total growth over the 20 year period of 93%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA, with an
increase of 229%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Rockford, IL,
with appreciation of 23%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 75%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 82%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Wilmington Real Estate
Market is available back to the 4th Quarter, of 1985. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Wilmington. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)





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