Tucson, AZ - House Price Index (HPI)
Tucson Real Estate Market - Home Price Forecast
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Tucson, AZ single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and
appreciation rates are provided below.
10
Tucson Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
Commentary  1311.56
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Tucson, Arizona


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      85%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Tucson housing market for the 12
months ending with the 1st Quarter of 2019 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Projection for Tucson is 85%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 85% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Tucson is 85% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 1st Quarter of 2019 than they were in the 1st
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Tucson Real
Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      78%

The forecast for the trend in the Tucson housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 1st Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
Tucson is 78%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 78% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Tucson is 78% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 1st Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 1st
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Tucson Real
Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Tucson, Arizona


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                         1.10%
Last Year                              7.9%
Last 5 Years                         32%
Last 10 Years                       -11%
Last 20 Years                       83%
Decline From All Time High   14.87%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      3.16%
1989      1.03%
1990      -0.65%
1991      4.78%
1992      3.19%
1993      5.55%
1994      8.58%
1995      6.05%
1996      2.17%
1997      3.66%
1998      3.64%
1999      3.08%
2000      5.33%
2001      6.63%
2002      6.41%
2003      8.32%
2004      13.62%
2005      29.35%
2006      6.63%
2007      -2.76%
2008      -12.95%
2009      -12.10%
2010      -6.37%
2011      -8.87%
2012      1.31%
2013      5.33%
2014      4.72%
2015      3.48%
2016      5.81%
2017      8.39%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              1.10%         Rank: 203 of 381 (46th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  7.9%           Rank: 99 of 381 (74th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              32%            Rank: 114 of 381 (70th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   -11%           Rank: 357 of 381 (6th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            83%            Rank: 165 of 379 (56th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        14.87%

The change in home prices for Tucson, AZ are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Tucson appreciated 1.10% in the Last Quarter. At that
rate, the Tucson Real Estate Market was ranked 203rd out of 381 metropolitan
Real Estate Markets. Tucson was in the 46th percentile. So Tucson, AZ
performed better in the Last Quarter than 46% of the 381 metropolitan areas
covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Tucson, Arizona

The all time high in the Tucson Home Price Index was 239.1 in the 4th Quarter,
of 2006. The 1st Quarter, 2018 index value was 203.6. That's a decline of
35.56 points or 14.87% below the Tucson Home Price Index all time high.  The
Home Price Index indicates that the Tucson Market is down 11% over the last
10 years. Home prices in the Tucson Real Estate Market have gained 7.93%
over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 162%.

The 1st Quarter index value was 2.22 points higher than the 4th Quarter, 2017
index value of 201.33, resulting in a 1.10% rise in the 1st Quarter for the
Tucson Market.

The Tucson Home Price Index has increased for the last 23 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in
the last 27 consecutive quarters. The current record holders for consecutive
declines in the Home Price Index are Tallahassee, FL; Syracuse, NY; Sioux City,
IA; Shreveport, LA and Peoria, IL, with declines in the last 2 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Tucson Real Estate
Market was 38% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 1979. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Tucson Market was -14% in the
twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 1982.

The highest growth in home values in the Tucson Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 71% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of
1980. The worst performance over a three year period in the Tucson Market
was -31% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph of the Tucson Home Price Index (above).
For information about Arizona home values, click Real Estate Market Forecasts
in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long term charts and
analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of
residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's
detailed research and statistics about Tucson Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Tucson Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Tucson Real Estate Market and hundreds of
other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Tucson, Arizona

The trend of Tucson Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas is
detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 1st Quarter of 2018, Tucson Home Prices had a rank of 203, with
appreciation of 1.10%. The top performing real estate market during the 1st
Quarter was Goldsboro, NC, with a rise of 9.78%. The worst market during that
period was Cumberland, MD, with appreciation of -9.30%.
The median for all cities during the 1st Quarter was 1.15%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 0.97%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Tucson Home Prices had a rank of 99, with
appreciation during the year of 7.93%. The top performing market during the
last year was Boise City, ID, with an increase of 15.3%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Farmington, NM, with appreciation of -6.0%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.97%. The average was
5.82%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2018, Tucson Home Prices
ranked 114, with a total appreciation of 31.7%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Reno, NV, with a growth in value of 90%.
The worst market during that period was Farmington, NM, with appreciation of
-4%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 20%. The average over the
5 years was 26%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, Tucson Home Prices had
a rank of 357, with appreciation during the decade of -11%. The top performing
market during the period was Denver, CO, with a rise of 69%. The worst real
estate market during the 10 year time period was Atlantic City, NJ, with
appreciation of -26%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 8%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 9%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, Tucson Home Prices had
a rank of 165, with total growth over the 20 year period of 83%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA, with an
increase of 282%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Rockford, IL,
with appreciation of 18%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 79%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 88%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Tucson Real Estate
Market is available back to the 3rd Quarter, of 1977. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Tucson. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, July 25, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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