Tucson, AZ - House Price Index (HPI)
Tucson Real Estate Market - Home Price Forecast
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Tucson, AZ single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Updated Friday, July 24, 2015. Real estate forecasts,
analysis, statistics and appreciation rates are provided below.
10
Tucson Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
Commentary  18789
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Statistics: Tucson, Arizona


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      82%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Tucson housing market for the 12
months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2015 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Projection for Tucson is 82%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 82% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Tucson is 82% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2015 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2014. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Tucson Real
Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      81%

The forecast for the trend in the Tucson housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 3rd Quarter of 2017 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
Tucson is 81%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 81% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Tucson is 81% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2017 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2014. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Tucson Real
Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Data: Tucson, Arizona


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                         2.14%
Last Year                              6.3%
Last 5 Years                         -8%
Last 10 Years                       2%
Last 20 Years                       74%
Decline From All Time High   28.55%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1984      5.12%
1985      5.58%
1986      3.03%
1987      0.82%
1988      3.28%
1989      0.94%
1990      -0.64%
1991      4.82%
1992      3.17%
1993      5.54%
1994      8.61%
1995      6.03%
1996      2.19%
1997      3.65%
1998      3.65%
1999      3.04%
2000      5.36%
2001      6.60%
2002      6.40%
2003      8.27%
2004      13.64%
2005      29.33%
2006      6.57%
2007      -2.66%
2008      -12.89%
2009      -12.01%
2010      -6.54%
2011      -8.70%
2012      1.52%
2013      5.50%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              2.14%         Rank: 128 of 381 (66th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  6.3%           Rank: 107 of 381 (72nd Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              -8%             Rank: 341 of 381 (10th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   2%              Rank: 273 of 381 (28th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            74%            Rank: 192 of 378 (49th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        28.55%

The change in home prices for Tucson, AZ are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Tucson appreciated 2.14% in the Last Quarter. At that
rate, the Tucson Real Estate Market was ranked 128th out of 381 metropolitan
Real Estate Markets. Tucson was in the 66th percentile. So Tucson, AZ
performed better in the Last Quarter than 66% of the 381 metropolitan areas
covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Statistics: Tucson, Arizona

The all time high in the Tucson Home Price Index was 238.8 in the 4th Quarter,
of 2006. The 3rd Quarter, 2014 index value was 170.6. That's a decline of
68.16 points or 28.55% below the Tucson Home Price Index all time high.  The
Home Price Index indicates that the Tucson Market is up 2% over the last 10
years. Home prices in the Tucson Real Estate Market have gained 6.29% over
the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 153%.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 3.58 points higher than the 2nd Quarter, 2014
index value of 167.04, resulting in a 2.14% rise in the 3rd Quarter for the
Tucson Market.

The Tucson Home Price Index increased in the last quarter after falling in the
previous quarter. The current record holders for consecutive increases in the
Home Price Index are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with
increases in the last 13 consecutive quarters. The current record holder for
consecutive declines in the Home Price Index is Terre Haute, IN, with declines in
the last 3 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Tucson Real Estate
Market was 38% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 1979. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Tucson Market was -13% in the
twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 2010.

The highest growth in home values in the Tucson Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 70% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of
1980. The worst performance over a three year period in the Tucson Market
was -31% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph of the Tucson Home Price Index (above).
For information about Arizona home values, click Real Estate Market Forecasts
in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long term charts and
analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of
residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's
detailed research and statistics about Tucson Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Tucson Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Tucson Real Estate Market and hundreds of
other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Data: Tucson, Arizona

The trend of Tucson Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas is
detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Tucson Home Prices had a rank of 128, with
appreciation of 2.14%. The top performing real estate market during the 3rd
Quarter was Johnstown, PA, with a rise of 7.10%. The worst market during that
period was Farmington, NM, with appreciation of -4.09%.
The median for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 1.44%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 1.49%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Tucson Home Prices had a rank of 107, with
appreciation during the year of 6.29%. The top performing market during the
last year was Madera, CA, with an increase of 19.4%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Jacksonville, NC, with appreciation of -4.5%.
The median for all markets during this period was 3.94%. The average was
4.71%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Tucson Home Prices
ranked 341, with a total appreciation of -7.6%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Merced, CA, with a growth in value of 45%.
The worst market during that period was Ocala, FL, with appreciation of -16%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 1%. The average over the
5 years was 3%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Tucson Home Prices
had a rank of 273, with appreciation during the decade of 2%. The top
performing market during the period was Midland, TX, with a rise of 129%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Las Vegas, NV, with
appreciation of -27%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 10%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 11%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Tucson Home Prices
had a rank of 192, with total growth over the 20 year period of 74%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA, with an
increase of 229%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Rockford, IL,
with appreciation of 23%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 75%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 82%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Tucson Real Estate
Market is available back to the 3rd Quarter, of 1977. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Tucson. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)





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