Santa Cruz, CA - House Price Index (HPI)
Santa Cruz Real Estate Market - Home Price Forecast
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA single family home
prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Updated Thursday, July 23,
2015. Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation rates are provided below.
10
Santa Cruz Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
Commentary  18754
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Statistics: Santa Cruz, California


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      83%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Santa Cruz housing market for the 12
months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2015 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Projection for Santa Cruz is 83%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 83% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Santa Cruz is 83% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2015 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2014. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Santa Cruz
Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      76%

The forecast for the trend in the Santa Cruz housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2017 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Santa Cruz is 76%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 76% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Santa Cruz is 76% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2017 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2014. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Santa Cruz
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Data: Santa Cruz, California


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                         2.68%
Last Year                              8.9%
Last 5 Years                         17%
Last 10 Years                       5%
Last 20 Years                       164%
Decline From All Time High   16.48%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1984      8.65%
1985      6.60%
1986      8.00%
1987      13.94%
1988      19.47%
1989      24.48%
1990      1.12%
1991      0.72%
1992      -1.95%
1993      -2.06%
1994      -2.82%
1995      2.49%
1996      1.52%
1997      7.59%
1998      13.28%
1999      17.58%
2000      23.25%
2001      6.63%
2002      7.40%
2003      5.49%
2004      18.09%
2005      18.17%
2006      -0.52%
2007      -4.70%
2008      -14.42%
2009      -9.31%
2010      -2.87%
2011      -4.74%
2012      3.04%
2013      12.33%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              2.68%         Rank: 87 of 381 (77th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  8.9%           Rank: 63 of 381 (83rd Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              17%            Rank: 42 of 381 (89th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   5%              Rank: 239 of 381 (37th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            164%          Rank: 12 of 378 (97th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        16.48%

The change in home prices for Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA are shown above
for five time periods. For example: Santa Cruz appreciated 2.68% in the Last
Quarter. At that rate, the Santa Cruz Real Estate Market was ranked 87th out of
381 metropolitan Real Estate Markets. Santa Cruz was in the 77th percentile.
So Santa Cruz, CA performed better in the Last Quarter than 77% of the 381
metropolitan areas covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Statistics: Santa Cruz, California

The data and analysis on this page pertains to Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA,
hereinafter referred to as "Santa Cruz". The all time high in the Santa Cruz
Home Price Index was 313.3 in the 2nd Quarter, of 2006. The 3rd Quarter,
2014 index value was 261.7. That's a decline of 51.64 points or 16.48% below
the Santa Cruz Home Price Index all time high.  The Home Price Index indicates
that the Santa Cruz Market is up 5% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the
Santa Cruz Real Estate Market have gained 8.91% over the last 12 months.
Over the last thirty years, it is up 408%.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 6.83 points higher than the 2nd Quarter, 2014
index value of 254.86, resulting in a 2.68% rise in the 3rd Quarter for the Santa
Cruz Market.

The Santa Cruz Home Price Index has increased for the last 3 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in
the last 13 consecutive quarters. The current record holder for consecutive
declines in the Home Price Index is Terre Haute, IN, with declines in the last 3
consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Santa Cruz Real
Estate Market was 28% in the twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of
1989. The worst annual change in home values  in the Santa Cruz Market was
-14% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2008.

The highest growth in home values in the Santa Cruz Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 69% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of
1989. The worst performance over a three year period in the Santa Cruz
Market was -27% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2009.

This page provides a long term graph of the Santa Cruz Home Price Index
(above). For information about California home values, click Real Estate Market
Forecasts in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long term
charts and analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical trends
of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's
detailed research and statistics about Santa Cruz Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Santa Cruz Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Santa Cruz Real Estate Market and hundreds
of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Data: Santa Cruz, California

The trend of Santa Cruz Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas is
detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period. The data and analysis on this page pertains
to Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA, hereinafter referred to as "Santa Cruz".

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Santa Cruz Home Prices had a rank of 87, with
appreciation of 2.68%. The top performing real estate market during the 3rd
Quarter was Johnstown, PA, with a rise of 7.10%. The worst market during that
period was Farmington, NM, with appreciation of -4.09%.
The median for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 1.44%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 1.49%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Santa Cruz Home Prices had a rank of 63, with
appreciation during the year of 8.91%. The top performing market during the
last year was Madera, CA, with an increase of 19.4%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Jacksonville, NC, with appreciation of -4.5%.
The median for all markets during this period was 3.94%. The average was
4.71%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Santa Cruz Home Prices
ranked 42, with a total appreciation of 16.7%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Merced, CA, with a growth in value of 45%.
The worst market during that period was Ocala, FL, with appreciation of -16%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 1%. The average over the
5 years was 3%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Santa Cruz Home Prices
had a rank of 239, with appreciation during the decade of 5%. The top
performing market during the period was Midland, TX, with a rise of 129%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Las Vegas, NV, with
appreciation of -27%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 10%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 11%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Santa Cruz Home Prices
had a rank of 12, with total growth over the 20 year period of 164%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA, with an
increase of 229%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Rockford, IL,
with appreciation of 23%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 75%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 82%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Santa Cruz Real Estate
Market is available back to the 2nd Quarter, of 1978. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Santa Cruz. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)





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