Santa Barbara, CA - House Price Index (HPI)
Santa Barbara Real Estate Market - Home Price Forecast
100
1000
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, CA single family
home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts,
analysis, statistics and appreciation rates are provided below.
10
Santa Barbara Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
Commentary  1275.56
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Santa Barbara, California


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      82%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Santa Barbara housing market for the
12 months ending with the 1st Quarter of 2019 is UP. The Accuracy of the
Trend Projection for Santa Barbara is 82%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 82% of the time.
Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house
prices in Santa Barbara is 82% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 1st Quarter of 2019 than
they were in the 1st Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the Santa Barbara Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      76%

The forecast for the trend in the Santa Barbara housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 1st Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Santa Barbara is 76%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 76% of the time.
Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house
prices in Santa Barbara is 76% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home values will be higher in the 1st Quarter of 2021 than
they were in the 1st Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the Santa Barbara Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Santa Barbara, California


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                         1.42%
Last Year                              5.7%
Last 5 Years                         48%
Last 10 Years                       11%
Last 20 Years                       176%
Decline From All Time High   13.80%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      14.44%
1989      22.54%
1990      -1.54%
1991      0.36%
1992      -4.00%
1993      -3.47%
1994      -1.89%
1995      -0.24%
1996      1.64%
1997      4.30%
1998      11.12%
1999      10.75%
2000      14.31%
2001      14.88%
2002      18.13%
2003      14.73%
2004      28.09%
2005      16.91%
2006      -3.93%
2007      -15.33%
2008      -17.87%
2009      -7.02%
2010      -1.97%
2011      -9.06%
2012      2.15%
2013      16.94%
2014      8.51%
2015      7.88%
2016      4.77%
2017      4.76%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              1.42%         Rank: 167 of 381 (56th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  5.7%           Rank: 204 of 381 (46th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              48%            Rank: 60 of 381 (84th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   11%            Rank: 162 of 381 (57th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            176%          Rank: 20 of 379 (94th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        13.80%

The change in home prices for Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA are shown
above for five time periods. For example: Santa Barbara appreciated 1.42% in
the Last Quarter. At that rate, the Santa Barbara Real Estate Market was
ranked 167th out of 381 metropolitan Real Estate Markets. Santa Barbara was
in the 56th percentile. So Santa Barbara, CA performed better in the Last
Quarter than 56% of the 381 metropolitan areas covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Santa Barbara, California

The data and analysis on this page pertains to Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA,
hereinafter referred to as "Santa Barbara". The all time high in the Santa
Barbara Home Price Index was 351.4 in the 4th Quarter, of 2005. The 1st
Quarter, 2018 index value was 302.9. That's a decline of 48.49 points or
13.80% below the Santa Barbara Home Price Index all time high.  The Home
Price Index indicates that the Santa Barbara Market is up 11% over the last 10
years. Home prices in the Santa Barbara Real Estate Market have gained
5.72% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 253%.

The 1st Quarter index value was 4.23 points higher than the 4th Quarter, 2017
index value of 298.64, resulting in a 1.42% rise in the 1st Quarter for the Santa
Barbara Market.

The Santa Barbara Home Price Index has increased for the last 8 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in
the last 27 consecutive quarters. The current record holders for consecutive
declines in the Home Price Index are Tallahassee, FL; Syracuse, NY; Sioux City,
IA; Shreveport, LA and Peoria, IL, with declines in the last 2 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Santa Barbara Real
Estate Market was 30% in the twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of
2004. The worst annual change in home values  in the Santa Barbara Market
was -20% in the twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2008.

The highest growth in home values in the Santa Barbara Real Estate Market
over a three year period was 75% in the three years ended with the 2nd
Quarter of 2005. The worst performance over a three year period in the Santa
Barbara Market was -37% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of
2009.

This page provides a long term graph of the Santa Barbara Home Price Index
(above). For information about California home values, click Real Estate Market
Forecasts in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long term
charts and analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical trends
of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's
detailed research and statistics about Santa Barbara Home Prices will be at
your fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Santa Barbara Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index,
as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Santa Barbara Real Estate Market and
hundreds of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a
number of months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Santa Barbara, California

The trend of Santa Barbara Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan
areas is detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities.
Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period. The data and analysis on this page pertains
to Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA, hereinafter referred to as "Santa Barbara".

Last Quarter:
During the 1st Quarter of 2018, Santa Barbara Home Prices had a rank of 167,
with appreciation of 1.42%. The top performing real estate market during the
1st Quarter was Goldsboro, NC, with a rise of 9.78%. The worst market during
that period was Cumberland, MD, with appreciation of -9.30%.
The median for all cities during the 1st Quarter was 1.15%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 0.97%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Santa Barbara Home Prices had a rank of 204, with
appreciation during the year of 5.72%. The top performing market during the
last year was Boise City, ID, with an increase of 15.3%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Farmington, NM, with appreciation of -6.0%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.97%. The average was
5.82%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2018, Santa Barbara Home
Prices ranked 60, with a total appreciation of 48.3%. The top performing real
estate market during the 5 year period was Reno, NV, with a growth in value of
90%. The worst market during that period was Farmington, NM, with
appreciation of -4%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 20%. The average over the
5 years was 26%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, Santa Barbara Home
Prices had a rank of 162, with appreciation during the decade of 11%. The top
performing market during the period was Denver, CO, with a rise of 69%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Atlantic City, NJ,
with appreciation of -26%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 8%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 9%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, Santa Barbara Home
Prices had a rank of 20, with total growth over the 20 year period of 176%. The
top performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA,
with an increase of 282%. The worst market during the last 20 years was
Rockford, IL, with appreciation of 18%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 79%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 88%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Santa Barbara Real
Estate Market is available back to the 4th Quarter, of 1977. All calculations are
based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Santa Barbara. Real
estate appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each
time period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, July 25, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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