San Francisco, CA - House Price Index (HPI)
San Francisco Real Estate Market - Home Price Forecast
100
1000
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA single
family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Updated Thursday,
July 23, 2015. Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation rates are provided below.
10
San Francisco Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
Commentary  18748
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Statistics: San Francisco, California


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      85%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the San Francisco housing market for the
12 months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2015 is UP. The Accuracy of the
Trend Projection for San Francisco is 85%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 85% of the time.
Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house
prices in San Francisco is 85% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2015 than
they were in the 3rd Quarter of 2014. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the San Francisco Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      78%

The forecast for the trend in the San Francisco housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2017 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for San Francisco is 78%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 78% of the time.
Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house
prices in San Francisco is 78% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2017 than
they were in the 3rd Quarter of 2014. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the San Francisco Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Data: San Francisco, California


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                         3.07%
Last Year                              11.7%
Last 5 Years                         32%
Last 10 Years                       32%
Last 20 Years                       229%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1984      6.41%
1985      10.40%
1986      12.92%
1987      19.04%
1988      25.99%
1989      15.28%
1990      -3.55%
1991      -2.26%
1992      -2.81%
1993      -2.49%
1994      -2.83%
1995      2.14%
1996      2.55%
1997      10.49%
1998      11.91%
1999      17.65%
2000      22.42%
2001      4.72%
2002      7.29%
2003      5.84%
2004      16.98%
2005      17.66%
2006      1.88%
2007      -2.72%
2008      -10.73%
2009      -6.28%
2010      -0.88%
2011      -3.07%
2012      6.60%
2013      17.55%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              3.07%         Rank: 58 of 381 (85th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  11.7%          Rank: 24 of 381 (93rd Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              32%            Rank: 6 of 381 (98th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   32%            Rank: 30 of 381 (92nd Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            229%          Rank: 1 of 378 (100th Percentile)


The change in home prices for San Francisco-Redwood City-South San
Francisco, CA are shown above for five time periods. For example: San
Francisco appreciated 3.07% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the San
Francisco Real Estate Market was ranked 58th out of 381 metropolitan Real
Estate Markets. San Francisco was in the 85th percentile. So San Francisco,
CA performed better in the Last Quarter than 85% of the 381 metropolitan
areas covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Statistics: San Francisco, California

The data and analysis on this page pertains to San Francisco-Redwood
City-South San Francisco, CA, hereinafter referred to as "San Francisco". The
all time high in the San Francisco Home Price Index was 328.5 in the 3rd
Quarter, of 2014.  The Home Price Index indicates that the San Francisco
Market is up 32% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the San Francisco
Real Estate Market have gained 11.68% over the last 12 months. Over the last
thirty years, it is up 529%.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 9.77 points higher than the 2nd Quarter, 2014
index value of 318.75, resulting in a 3.07% rise in the 3rd Quarter for the San
Francisco Market.

The San Francisco Home Price Index has increased for the last 10 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in
the last 13 consecutive quarters. The current record holder for consecutive
declines in the Home Price Index is Terre Haute, IN, with declines in the last 3
consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the San Francisco Real
Estate Market was 28% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of
1979. The worst annual change in home values  in the San Francisco Market
was -11% in the twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2008.

The highest growth in home values in the San Francisco Real Estate Market
over a three year period was 77% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter
of 1989. The worst performance over a three year period in the San Francisco
Market was -20% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2009.

This page provides a long term graph of the San Francisco Home Price Index
(above). For information about California home values, click Real Estate Market
Forecasts in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long term
charts and analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical trends
of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's
detailed research and statistics about San Francisco Home Prices will be at
your fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the San Francisco Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index,
as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the San Francisco Real Estate Market and
hundreds of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a
number of months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Data: San Francisco, California

The trend of San Francisco Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan
areas is detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities.
Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period. The data and analysis on this page pertains
to San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA, hereinafter referred
to as "San Francisco".

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2014, San Francisco Home Prices had a rank of 58,
with appreciation of 3.07%. The top performing real estate market during the
3rd Quarter was Johnstown, PA, with a rise of 7.10%. The worst market during
that period was Farmington, NM, with appreciation of -4.09%.
The median for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 1.44%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 1.49%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, San Francisco Home Prices had a rank of 24, with
appreciation during the year of 11.68%. The top performing market during the
last year was Madera, CA, with an increase of 19.4%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Jacksonville, NC, with appreciation of -4.5%.
The median for all markets during this period was 3.94%. The average was
4.71%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2014, San Francisco Home
Prices ranked 6, with a total appreciation of 31.8%. The top performing real
estate market during the 5 year period was Merced, CA, with a growth in value
of 45%. The worst market during that period was Ocala, FL, with appreciation of
-16%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 1%. The average over the
5 years was 3%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2014, San Francisco Home
Prices had a rank of 30, with appreciation during the decade of 32%. The top
performing market during the period was Midland, TX, with a rise of 129%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Las Vegas, NV, with
appreciation of -27%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 10%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 11%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2014, San Francisco Home
Prices outperformed every state, with total appreciation of 229%. The worst
performer during the last 20 years was Rockford, IL, with appreciation of 23%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 75%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 82%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the San Francisco Real
Estate Market is available back to the 3rd Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are
based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for San Francisco. Real
estate appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each
time period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)





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