Phoenix, AZ - House Price Index (HPI)
Phoenix Real Estate Market - Home Price Forecast
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ single family home
prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis,
statistics and appreciation rates are provided below.
Phoenix Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook & Analysis
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Commentary  27092
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Phoenix, Arizona


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      85%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Phoenix housing market for the 12
months ending with the 2nd Quarter of 2018 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Projection for Phoenix is 85%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 85% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Phoenix is 85% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 2nd Quarter of 2018 than they were in the 2nd
Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Phoenix Real
Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      75%

The forecast for the trend in the Phoenix housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 2nd Quarter of 2020 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
Phoenix is 75%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 75% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Phoenix is 75% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 2nd Quarter of 2020 than they were in the 2nd
Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Phoenix Real
Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Phoenix, Arizona


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                         2.85%
Last Year                              9.1%
Last 5 Years                         68%
Last 10 Years                       -10%
Last 20 Years                       130%
Decline From All Time High   11.72%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1987      0.04%
1988      1.06%
1989      -1.58%
1990      -4.17%
1991      4.95%
1992      1.39%
1993      2.65%
1994      5.03%
1995      5.98%
1996      5.06%
1997      5.73%
1998      5.68%
1999      6.50%
2000      6.91%
2001      6.34%
2002      5.13%
2003      6.45%
2004      15.95%
2005      41.33%
2006      7.55%
2007      -6.14%
2008      -23.09%
2009      -16.99%
2010      -8.99%
2011      -6.53%
2012      12.42%
2013      18.49%
2014      6.79%
2015      7.81%
2016      7.30%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              2.85%         Rank: 164 of 381 (57th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  9.1%           Rank: 71 of 381 (81st Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              68%            Rank: 21 of 381 (94th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   -10%           Rank: 315 of 381 (17th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            130%          Rank: 55 of 379 (85th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        11.72%

The change in home prices for Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ are shown above
for five time periods. For example: Phoenix appreciated 2.85% in the Last
Quarter. At that rate, the Phoenix Real Estate Market was ranked 164th out of
381 metropolitan Real Estate Markets. Phoenix was in the 57th percentile. So
Phoenix, AZ performed better in the Last Quarter than 57% of the 381
metropolitan areas covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Phoenix, Arizona

The data and analysis on this page pertains to Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ,
hereinafter referred to as "Phoenix". The all time high in the Phoenix Home
Price Index was 294.2 in the 4th Quarter, of 2006. The 2nd Quarter, 2017 index
value was 259.7. That's a decline of 34.47 points or 11.72% below the Phoenix
Home Price Index all time high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the
Phoenix Market is down 10% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the Phoenix
Real Estate Market have gained 9.08% over the last 12 months. Over the last
thirty years, it is up 180%.

The 2nd Quarter index value was 7.20 points higher than the 1st Quarter, 2017
index value of 252.52, resulting in a 2.85% rise in the 2nd Quarter for the
Phoenix Market.

The Phoenix Home Price Index has increased for the last 24 consecutive
quarters. That makes Phoenix the current record holder for consecutive
quarterly increases in the Home Price Index (along with Houston, TX and Boise
City, ID; which also had 24 consecutive quarterly increases). The current record
holders for consecutive declines in the Home Price Index are Manhattan, KS
and Longview, TX, with declines in the last 3 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Phoenix Real Estate
Market was 41% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2005. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Phoenix Market was -23% in the
twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2008.

The highest growth in home values in the Phoenix Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 81% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of
2006. The worst performance over a three year period in the Phoenix Market
was -43% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2010.

This page provides a long term graph of the Phoenix Home Price Index (above).
For information about Arizona home values, click Real Estate Market Forecasts
in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long term charts and
analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of
residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's
detailed research and statistics about Phoenix Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Phoenix Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Phoenix Real Estate Market and hundreds of
other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Phoenix, Arizona

The trend of Phoenix Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas is
detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period. The data and analysis on this page pertains
to Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ, hereinafter referred to as "Phoenix".

Last Quarter:
During the 2nd Quarter of 2017, Phoenix Home Prices had a rank of 164, with
appreciation of 2.85%. The top performing real estate market during the 2nd
Quarter was Weirton, OH, with a rise of 14.58%. The worst market during that
period was Bangor, ME, with appreciation of -4.77%.
The median for all cities during the 2nd Quarter was 2.58%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 2.50%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Phoenix Home Prices had a rank of 71, with
appreciation during the year of 9.08%. The top performing market during the
last year was Mount Vernon, WA, with an increase of 15.1%. The worst real
estate market during that period was Pine Bluff, AR, with appreciation of -7.9%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.39%. The average was
5.53%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2017, Phoenix Home Prices
ranked 21, with a total appreciation of 67.7%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Reno, NV, with a growth in value of 93%.
The worst market during that period was Jacksonville, NC, with appreciation of
-3%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 18%. The average over the
5 years was 25%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 2nd Quarter of 2017, Phoenix Home Prices
had a rank of 315, with appreciation during the decade of -10%. The top
performing market during the period was Austin, TX, with a rise of 62%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Atlantic City, NJ,
with appreciation of -29%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 4%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 5%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 2nd Quarter of 2017, Phoenix Home Prices
had a rank of 55, with total growth over the 20 year period of 130%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA, with an
increase of 289%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Saginaw, MI,
with appreciation of 20%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 79%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 89%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Phoenix Real Estate
Market is available back to the 2nd Quarter, of 1977. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Phoenix. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Thursday, November 9, 2017.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2017; All rights reserved.


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