Napa, CA - House Price Index (HPI)
Napa Real Estate Market - Home Price Forecast
100
1000
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Napa, CA single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Updated Monday, July 6, 2015. Real estate
forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation rates are provided below.
10
Napa Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
Commentary  18679
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Statistics: Napa, California


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      81%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Napa housing market for the 12
months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2015 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Projection for Napa is 81%. In other words, when tested against historical data,
the forecasting methodology was correct 81% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Napa is 81% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct, home
prices will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2015 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2014. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Napa Real
Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      73%

The forecast for the trend in the Napa housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 3rd Quarter of 2017 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
Napa is 73%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 73% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Napa is 73% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct, home
values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2017 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2014. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Napa Real
Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Data: Napa, California


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                         4.08%
Last Year                              14.4%
Last 5 Years                         23%
Last 10 Years                       -3%
Last 20 Years                       153%
Decline From All Time High   19.68%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1984      1.87%
1985      5.64%
1986      8.02%
1987      11.14%
1988      13.54%
1989      19.02%
1990      12.61%
1991      1.62%
1992      -0.09%
1993      -1.40%
1994      -4.65%
1995      0.86%
1996      -0.47%
1997      4.83%
1998      6.71%
1999      15.45%
2000      20.57%
2001      12.41%
2002      14.02%
2003      15.40%
2004      18.07%
2005      16.89%
2006      -0.37%
2007      -7.88%
2008      -20.24%
2009      -9.74%
2010      -4.72%
2011      -6.46%
2012      4.35%
2013      22.91%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              4.08%         Rank: 28 of 381 (92nd Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  14.4%          Rank: 12 of 381 (97th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              23%            Rank: 16 of 381 (96th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   -3%            Rank: 311 of 381 (18th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            153%          Rank: 14 of 378 (96th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        19.68%

The change in home prices for Napa, CA are shown above for five time periods.
For example: Napa appreciated 4.08% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the
Napa Real Estate Market was ranked 28th out of 381 metropolitan Real Estate
Markets. Napa was in the 92nd percentile. So Napa, CA performed better in the
Last Quarter than 92% of the 381 metropolitan areas covered in
LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Statistics: Napa, California

The all time high in the Napa Home Price Index was 321.1 in the 1st Quarter, of
2006. The 3rd Quarter, 2014 index value was 257.9. That's a decline of 63.18
points or 19.68% below the Napa Home Price Index all time high.  The Home
Price Index indicates that the Napa Market is down 3% over the last 10 years.
Home prices in the Napa Real Estate Market have gained 14.42% over the last
12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 383%.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 10.11 points higher than the 2nd Quarter,
2014 index value of 247.80, resulting in a 4.08% rise in the 3rd Quarter for the
Napa Market.

The Napa Home Price Index has increased for the last 9 consecutive quarters.
The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home Price Index
are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in the last 13
consecutive quarters. The current record holder for consecutive declines in the
Home Price Index is Terre Haute, IN, with declines in the last 3 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Napa Real Estate
Market was 24% in the twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2004. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Napa Market was -20% in the
twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2008.

The highest growth in home values in the Napa Real Estate Market over a three
year period was 63% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2005.
The worst performance over a three year period in the Napa Market was -35%
in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2010.

This page provides a long term graph of the Napa Home Price Index (above).
For information about California home values, click Real Estate Market
Forecasts in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long term
charts and analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical trends
of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's
detailed research and statistics about Napa Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Napa Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as used
in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price
Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Napa Real Estate Market and hundreds of
other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Data: Napa, California

The trend of Napa Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas is
detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Napa Home Prices had a rank of 28, with
appreciation of 4.08%. The top performing real estate market during the 3rd
Quarter was Johnstown, PA, with a rise of 7.10%. The worst market during that
period was Farmington, NM, with appreciation of -4.09%.
The median for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 1.44%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 1.49%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Napa Home Prices had a rank of 12, with
appreciation during the year of 14.42%. The top performing market during the
last year was Madera, CA, with an increase of 19.4%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Jacksonville, NC, with appreciation of -4.5%.
The median for all markets during this period was 3.94%. The average was
4.71%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Napa Home Prices
ranked 16, with a total appreciation of 23.3%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Merced, CA, with a growth in value of 45%.
The worst market during that period was Ocala, FL, with appreciation of -16%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 1%. The average over the
5 years was 3%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Napa Home Prices had a
rank of 311, with appreciation during the decade of -3%. The top performing
market during the period was Midland, TX, with a rise of 129%. The worst real
estate market during the 10 year time period was Las Vegas, NV, with
appreciation of -27%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 10%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 11%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Napa Home Prices had a
rank of 14, with total growth over the 20 year period of 153%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA, with an
increase of 229%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Rockford, IL,
with appreciation of 23%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 75%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 82%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Napa Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1979. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Napa. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)





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