Modesto, CA - House Price Index (HPI)
Modesto Real Estate Market - Home Price Forecast
100
1000
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Modesto, CA single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Updated Monday, July 6, 2015. Real estate
forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation rates are provided below.
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Modesto Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
Commentary  18669
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Statistics: Modesto, California


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      79%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Modesto housing market for the 12
months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2015 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Projection for Modesto is 79%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 79% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Modesto is 79% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2015 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2014. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Modesto
Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      71%

The forecast for the trend in the Modesto housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2017 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Modesto is 71%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 71% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Modesto is 71% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2017 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2014. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Modesto
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Data: Modesto, California


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                         2.18%
Last Year                              17.6%
Last 5 Years                         32%
Last 10 Years                       -20%
Last 20 Years                       80%
Decline From All Time High   40.98%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1984      1.29%
1985      5.58%
1986      7.79%
1987      8.18%
1988      11.75%
1989      23.66%
1990      8.27%
1991      -1.90%
1992      -1.36%
1993      -1.78%
1994      -7.42%
1995      1.58%
1996      -1.18%
1997      1.37%
1998      5.58%
1999      3.73%
2000      14.27%
2001      17.73%
2002      12.80%
2003      14.63%
2004      23.48%
2005      26.58%
2006      -0.78%
2007      -19.41%
2008      -36.51%
2009      -9.42%
2010      -5.12%
2011      -8.24%
2012      5.93%
2013      29.60%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              2.18%         Rank: 124 of 381 (67th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  17.6%          Rank: 5 of 381 (98th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              32%            Rank: 7 of 381 (98th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   -20%           Rank: 374 of 381 (1st Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            80%            Rank: 159 of 378 (58th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        40.98%

The change in home prices for Modesto, CA are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Modesto appreciated 2.18% in the Last Quarter. At that
rate, the Modesto Real Estate Market was ranked 124th out of 381 metropolitan
Real Estate Markets. Modesto was in the 67th percentile. So Modesto, CA
performed better in the Last Quarter than 67% of the 381 metropolitan areas
covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Statistics: Modesto, California

The all time high in the Modesto Home Price Index was 309.9 in the 1st Quarter,
of 2006. The 3rd Quarter, 2014 index value was 182.9. That's a decline of
126.99 points or 40.98% below the Modesto Home Price Index all time high.  
The Home Price Index indicates that the Modesto Market is down 20% over the
last 10 years. Home prices in the Modesto Real Estate Market have gained
17.60% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 190%.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 3.91 points higher than the 2nd Quarter, 2014
index value of 179.00, resulting in a 2.18% rise in the 3rd Quarter for the
Modesto Market.

The Modesto Home Price Index has increased for the last 10 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in
the last 13 consecutive quarters. The current record holder for consecutive
declines in the Home Price Index is Terre Haute, IN, with declines in the last 3
consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Modesto Real Estate
Market was 30% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2005. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Modesto Market was -37% in the
twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2008.

The highest growth in home values in the Modesto Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 79% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of
2005. The worst performance over a three year period in the Modesto Market
was -54% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2009.

This page provides a long term graph of the Modesto Home Price Index
(above). For information about California home values, click Real Estate Market
Forecasts in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long term
charts and analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical trends
of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's
detailed research and statistics about Modesto Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Modesto Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Modesto Real Estate Market and hundreds of
other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Data: Modesto, California

The trend of Modesto Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas is
detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Modesto Home Prices had a rank of 124, with
appreciation of 2.18%. The top performing real estate market during the 3rd
Quarter was Johnstown, PA, with a rise of 7.10%. The worst market during that
period was Farmington, NM, with appreciation of -4.09%.
The median for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 1.44%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 1.49%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Modesto Home Prices had a rank of 5, with
appreciation during the year of 17.60%. The top performing market during the
last year was Madera, CA, with an increase of 19.4%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Jacksonville, NC, with appreciation of -4.5%.
The median for all markets during this period was 3.94%. The average was
4.71%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Modesto Home Prices
ranked 7, with a total appreciation of 31.8%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Merced, CA, with a growth in value of 45%.
The worst market during that period was Ocala, FL, with appreciation of -16%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 1%. The average over the
5 years was 3%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Modesto Home Prices
had a rank of 374, with appreciation during the decade of -20%. The top
performing market during the period was Midland, TX, with a rise of 129%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Las Vegas, NV, with
appreciation of -27%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 10%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 11%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Modesto Home Prices
had a rank of 159, with total growth over the 20 year period of 80%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA, with an
increase of 229%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Rockford, IL,
with appreciation of 23%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 75%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 82%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Modesto Real Estate
Market is available back to the 2nd Quarter, of 1977. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Modesto. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)





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