Modesto, CA - House Price Index (HPI)
Modesto Real Estate Market - Home Price Forecast
100
1000
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Modesto, CA single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and
appreciation rates are provided below.
10
Modesto Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
Commentary  27051
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Modesto, California


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      79%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Modesto housing market for the 12
months ending with the 2nd Quarter of 2018 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Projection for Modesto is 79%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 79% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Modesto is 79% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 2nd Quarter of 2018 than they were in the 2nd
Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Modesto
Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      71%

The forecast for the trend in the Modesto housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 2nd Quarter of 2020 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Modesto is 71%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 71% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Modesto is 71% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 2nd Quarter of 2020 than they were in the 2nd
Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Modesto
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Modesto, California


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                         2.85%
Last Year                              8.6%
Last 5 Years                         88%
Last 10 Years                       -18%
Last 20 Years                       129%
Decline From All Time High   26.16%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1987      8.15%
1988      11.80%
1989      23.56%
1990      8.18%
1991      -1.84%
1992      -1.36%
1993      -1.78%
1994      -7.42%
1995      1.58%
1996      -1.17%
1997      1.35%
1998      5.57%
1999      3.83%
2000      14.20%
2001      17.73%
2002      12.82%
2003      14.64%
2004      23.49%
2005      26.63%
2006      -0.75%
2007      -19.54%
2008      -36.76%
2009      -9.08%
2010      -5.12%
2011      -8.23%
2012      5.92%
2013      29.15%
2014      12.69%
2015      8.08%
2016      7.71%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              2.85%         Rank: 163 of 381 (57th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  8.6%           Rank: 88 of 381 (77th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              88%            Rank: 3 of 381 (99th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   -18%           Rank: 366 of 381 (3rd Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            129%          Rank: 58 of 379 (84th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        26.16%

The change in home prices for Modesto, CA are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Modesto appreciated 2.85% in the Last Quarter. At that
rate, the Modesto Real Estate Market was ranked 163rd out of 381 metropolitan
Real Estate Markets. Modesto was in the 57th percentile. So Modesto, CA
performed better in the Last Quarter than 57% of the 381 metropolitan areas
covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Modesto, California

The all time high in the Modesto Home Price Index was 310.3 in the 1st Quarter,
of 2006. The 2nd Quarter, 2017 index value was 229.1. That's a decline of
81.17 points or 26.16% below the Modesto Home Price Index all time high.  The
Home Price Index indicates that the Modesto Market is down 18% over the last
10 years. Home prices in the Modesto Real Estate Market have gained 8.65%
over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 212%.

The 2nd Quarter index value was 6.36 points higher than the 1st Quarter, 2017
index value of 222.77, resulting in a 2.85% rise in the 2nd Quarter for the
Modesto Market.

The Modesto Home Price Index has increased for the last 21 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in
the last 24 consecutive quarters. The current record holders for consecutive
declines in the Home Price Index are Manhattan, KS and Longview, TX, with
declines in the last 3 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Modesto Real Estate
Market was 30% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2005. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Modesto Market was -38% in the
twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2008.

The highest growth in home values in the Modesto Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 79% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of
2005. The worst performance over a three year period in the Modesto Market
was -54% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2009.

This page provides a long term graph of the Modesto Home Price Index
(above). For information about California home values, click Real Estate Market
Forecasts in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long term
charts and analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical trends
of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's
detailed research and statistics about Modesto Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Modesto Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Modesto Real Estate Market and hundreds of
other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Modesto, California

The trend of Modesto Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas is
detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 2nd Quarter of 2017, Modesto Home Prices had a rank of 163, with
appreciation of 2.85%. The top performing real estate market during the 2nd
Quarter was Weirton, OH, with a rise of 14.58%. The worst market during that
period was Bangor, ME, with appreciation of -4.77%.
The median for all cities during the 2nd Quarter was 2.58%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 2.50%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Modesto Home Prices had a rank of 88, with
appreciation during the year of 8.65%. The top performing market during the
last year was Mount Vernon, WA, with an increase of 15.1%. The worst real
estate market during that period was Pine Bluff, AR, with appreciation of -7.9%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.39%. The average was
5.53%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2017, Modesto Home Prices
ranked 3, with a total appreciation of 87.7%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Reno, NV, with a growth in value of 93%.
The worst market during that period was Jacksonville, NC, with appreciation of
-3%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 18%. The average over the
5 years was 25%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 2nd Quarter of 2017, Modesto Home Prices
had a rank of 366, with appreciation during the decade of -18%. The top
performing market during the period was Austin, TX, with a rise of 62%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Atlantic City, NJ,
with appreciation of -29%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 4%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 5%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 2nd Quarter of 2017, Modesto Home Prices
had a rank of 58, with total growth over the 20 year period of 129%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA, with an
increase of 289%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Saginaw, MI,
with appreciation of 20%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 79%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 89%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Modesto Real Estate
Market is available back to the 2nd Quarter, of 1977. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Modesto. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, November 8, 2017.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2017; All rights reserved.


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