Memphis, TN - House Price Index (HPI)
Memphis Real Estate Market - Home Price Forecast
100
1000
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Memphis, TN-MS-AR single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics
and appreciation rates are provided below.
10
Memphis Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
Commentary  420.56
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Memphis, Tennessee


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      86%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Memphis housing market for the 12
months ending with the 4th Quarter of 2018 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Projection for Memphis is 86%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 86% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Memphis is 86% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2018 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Memphis
Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      83%

The forecast for the trend in the Memphis housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 4th Quarter of 2020 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Memphis is 83%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 83% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Memphis is 83% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2020 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Memphis
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Memphis, Tennessee


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                         -1.27%
Last Year                              4.8%
Last 5 Years                         19%
Last 10 Years                       4%
Last 20 Years                       44%
Decline From All Time High   1.27%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      2.60%
1989      3.11%
1990      -1.93%
1991      4.57%
1992      1.18%
1993      2.89%
1994      2.96%
1995      5.83%
1996      3.34%
1997      4.18%
1998      5.81%
1999      3.80%
2000      1.96%
2001      4.52%
2002      2.15%
2003      2.12%
2004      3.55%
2005      4.10%
2006      4.31%
2007      0.88%
2008      -3.77%
2009      -4.15%
2010      -1.98%
2011      -3.23%
2012      -0.17%
2013      0.04%
2014      5.34%
2015      3.17%
2016      4.80%
2017      4.84%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              -1.27%        Rank: 337 of 381 (11th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  4.8%           Rank: 218 of 381 (42nd Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              19%            Rank: 191 of 381 (50th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   4%              Rank: 214 of 381 (43rd Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            44%            Rank: 335 of 379 (11th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        1.27%

The change in home prices for Memphis, TN-MS-AR are shown above for five
time periods. For example: Memphis appreciated -1.27% in the Last Quarter. At
that rate, the Memphis Real Estate Market was ranked 337th out of 381
metropolitan Real Estate Markets. Memphis was in the 11th percentile. So
Memphis, TN performed better in the Last Quarter than 11% of the 381
metropolitan areas covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Memphis, Tennessee

The all time high in the Memphis Home Price Index was 166.1 in the 3rd
Quarter, of 2017. The 4th Quarter, 2017 index value was 164.0. That's a
decline of 2.11 points or 1.27% below the Memphis Home Price Index all time
high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Memphis Market is up 4% over
the last 10 years. Home prices in the Memphis Real Estate Market have gained
4.84% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 91%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 2.11 points lower than the 3rd Quarter, 2017
index value of 166.10, resulting in a 1.27% decline for the 4th Quarter in the
Memphis Market.

The Memphis Home Price Index declined in the last quarter after increasing in
the previous 10 quarters. The current record holders for consecutive declines
in the Home Price Index are Victoria, TX; Topeka, KS; Texarkana, TX-AR;
Springfield, MA and Peoria, IL, with declines in the last 2 consecutive quarters.
The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home Price Index
are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in the last 26
consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Memphis Real Estate
Market was 24% in the twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 1985. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Memphis Market was -13% in the
twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 1984.

The highest growth in home values in the Memphis Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 38% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of
1987. The worst performance over a three year period in the Memphis Market
was -13% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph of the Memphis Home Price Index
(above). For information about Tennessee home values, click Real Estate
Market Forecasts in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long
term charts and analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical
trends of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then
LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research and statistics about Memphis Home
Prices will be at your fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Memphis Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Memphis Real Estate Market and hundreds
of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Memphis, Tennessee

The trend of Memphis Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas is
detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2017, Memphis Home Prices had a rank of 337, with
appreciation of -1.27%. The top performing real estate market during the 4th
Quarter was Gadsden, AL, with a rise of 13.11%. The worst market during that
period was Hinesville, GA, with appreciation of -6.79%.
The median for all cities during the 4th Quarter was 0.75%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 0.69%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Memphis Home Prices had a rank of 218, with
appreciation during the year of 4.84%. The top performing market during the
last year was Sebastian, FL, with an increase of 16.4%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Goldsboro, NC, with appreciation of -6.9%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.37%. The average was
5.53%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2017, Memphis Home Prices
ranked 191, with a total appreciation of 19.4%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Reno, NV, with a growth in value of 94%.
The worst market during that period was Goldsboro, NC, with appreciation of
-5%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 19%. The average over the
5 years was 25%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2017, Memphis Home Prices
had a rank of 214, with appreciation during the decade of 4%. The top
performing market during the period was Denver, CO, with a rise of 65%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Atlantic City, NJ,
with appreciation of -27%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 7%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 8%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2017, Memphis Home Prices
had a rank of 335, with total growth over the 20 year period of 44%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA, with an
increase of 280%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Saginaw, MI,
with appreciation of 18%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 79%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 89%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Memphis Real Estate
Market is available back to the 3rd Quarter, of 1978. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Memphis. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Tuesday, April 10, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.



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