Lancaster, PA - House Price Index (HPI)
Lancaster Real Estate Market Forecast
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1000
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Lancaster, PA single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics
and appreciation rates are provided below.
10
Lancaster Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
Commentary  392.56
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Lancaster, Pennsylvania


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      86%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Lancaster housing market for the 12
months ending with the 4th Quarter of 2018 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Projection for Lancaster is 86%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 86% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Lancaster is 86% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2018 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Lancaster
Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      84%

The forecast for the trend in the Lancaster housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 4th Quarter of 2020 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Lancaster is 84%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 84% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Lancaster is 84% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2020 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Lancaster
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Lancaster, Pennsylvania


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                         0.35%
Last Year                              4.0%
Last 5 Years                         14%
Last 10 Years                       7%
Last 20 Years                       76%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      10.24%
1989      9.36%
1990      4.39%
1991      3.73%
1992      1.33%
1993      2.78%
1994      -2.06%
1995      4.39%
1996      1.13%
1997      1.79%
1998      3.03%
1999      1.14%
2000      2.01%
2001      5.24%
2002      4.11%
2003      6.87%
2004      10.29%
2005      11.32%
2006      6.43%
2007      1.57%
2008      -0.81%
2009      -0.70%
2010      -1.63%
2011      -2.47%
2012      -1.16%
2013      1.03%
2014      1.11%
2015      2.78%
2016      4.57%
2017      3.97%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              0.35%         Rank: 229 of 381 (40th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  4.0%           Rank: 257 of 381 (32nd Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              14%            Rank: 249 of 381 (34th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   7%              Rank: 191 of 381 (50th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            76%            Rank: 200 of 379 (47th Percentile)


The change in home prices for Lancaster, PA are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Lancaster appreciated 0.35% in the Last Quarter. At that
rate, the Lancaster Real Estate Market was ranked 229th out of 381
metropolitan Real Estate Markets. Lancaster was in the 40th percentile. So
Lancaster, PA performed better in the Last Quarter than 40% of the 381
metropolitan areas covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Lancaster, Pennsylvania

The all time high in the Lancaster Home Price Index was 189.0 in the 4th
Quarter, of 2017.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Lancaster Market is
up 7% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the Lancaster Real Estate Market
have gained 3.97% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up
152%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 0.65 points higher than the 3rd Quarter, 2017
index value of 188.32, resulting in a 0.35% rise in the 4th Quarter for the
Lancaster Market.

The Lancaster Home Price Index has increased for the last 7 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in
the last 26 consecutive quarters. The current record holders for consecutive
declines in the Home Price Index are Victoria, TX; Topeka, KS; Texarkana,
TX-AR; Springfield, MA and Peoria, IL, with declines in the last 2 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Lancaster Real Estate
Market was 14% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 1981. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Lancaster Market was -9% in the
twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 1980.

The highest growth in home values in the Lancaster Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 34% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of
1989. The worst performance over a three year period in the Lancaster Market
was -7% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2012.

This page provides a long term graph of the Lancaster Home Price Index
(above). For information about Pennsylvania home values, click Real Estate
Market Forecasts in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long
term charts and analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical
trends of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then
LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research and statistics about Lancaster Home
Prices will be at your fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Lancaster Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Lancaster Real Estate Market and hundreds
of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Lancaster, Pennsylvania

The trend of Lancaster Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas is
detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2017, Lancaster Home Prices had a rank of 229, with
appreciation of 0.35%. The top performing real estate market during the 4th
Quarter was Gadsden, AL, with a rise of 13.11%. The worst market during that
period was Hinesville, GA, with appreciation of -6.79%.
The median for all cities during the 4th Quarter was 0.75%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 0.69%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Lancaster Home Prices had a rank of 257, with
appreciation during the year of 3.97%. The top performing market during the
last year was Sebastian, FL, with an increase of 16.4%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Goldsboro, NC, with appreciation of -6.9%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.37%. The average was
5.53%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2017, Lancaster Home Prices
ranked 249, with a total appreciation of 14.1%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Reno, NV, with a growth in value of 94%.
The worst market during that period was Goldsboro, NC, with appreciation of
-5%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 19%. The average over the
5 years was 25%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2017, Lancaster Home Prices
had a rank of 191, with appreciation during the decade of 7%. The top
performing market during the period was Denver, CO, with a rise of 65%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Atlantic City, NJ,
with appreciation of -27%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 7%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 8%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2017, Lancaster Home Prices
had a rank of 200, with total growth over the 20 year period of 76%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA, with an
increase of 280%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Saginaw, MI,
with appreciation of 18%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 79%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 89%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Lancaster Real Estate
Market is available back to the 4th Quarter, of 1979. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Lancaster. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Monday, April 2, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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