Johnson City, TN - House Price Index (HPI)
Johnson City Real Estate Market Forecast
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Johnson City, TN single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics
and appreciation rates are provided below.
Johnson City Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
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Commentary  27756
3rd Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Johnson City, Tennessee


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      77%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Johnson City housing market for the
12 months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2018 is UP. The Accuracy of the
Trend Projection for Johnson City is 77%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 77% of the time.
Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house
prices in Johnson City is 77% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast
is correct, home prices will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2018 than they were
in the 3rd Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the
Johnson City Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      80%

The forecast for the trend in the Johnson City housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2020 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Johnson City is 80%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 80% of the time.
Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house
prices in Johnson City is 80% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast
is correct, home values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2020 than they were
in the 3rd Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the
Johnson City Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Johnson City, Tennessee


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                         -1.84%
Last Year                              1.6%
Last 5 Years                         7%
Last 10 Years                       7%
Last 20 Years                       64%
Decline From All Time High   1.84%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1987        n/a
1988        n/a
1989        n/a
1990        n/a
1991        n/a
1992        n/a
1993      7.16%
1994      1.65%
1995      10.97%
1996      3.28%
1997      5.32%
1998      6.11%
1999      -1.37%
2000      6.03%
2001      3.05%
2002      4.72%
2003      3.77%
2004      4.95%
2005      7.55%
2006      7.75%
2007      3.42%
2008      0.34%
2009      0.32%
2010      0.13%
2011      -2.35%
2012      0.75%
2013      -4.54%
2014      6.47%
2015      0.16%
2016      2.38%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              -1.84%        Rank: 359 of 381 (5th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  1.6%           Rank: 337 of 381 (11th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              7%              Rank: 335 of 381 (12th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   7%              Rank: 178 of 381 (53rd Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            64%            Rank: 265 of 379 (30th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        1.84%

The change in home prices for Johnson City, TN are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Johnson City appreciated -1.84% in the Last Quarter. At
that rate, the Johnson City Real Estate Market was ranked 359th out of 381
metropolitan Real Estate Markets. Johnson City was in the 5th percentile. So
Johnson City, TN performed better in the Last Quarter than 5% of the 381
metropolitan areas covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Johnson City, Tennessee

The all time high in the Johnson City Home Price Index was 191.1 in the 2nd
Quarter, of 2017. The 3rd Quarter, 2017 index value was 187.5. That's a
decline of 3.51 points or 1.84% below the Johnson City Home Price Index all
time high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Johnson City Market is up
7% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the Johnson City Real Estate Market
have gained 1.64% over the last 12 months.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 3.51 points lower than the 2nd Quarter, 2017
index value of 191.05, resulting in a 1.84% decline for the 3rd Quarter in the
Johnson City Market.

The Johnson City Home Price Index declined in the last quarter after increasing
in the previous quarter. The current record holder for consecutive declines in
the Home Price Index is Carbondale, IL, with declines in the last 3 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in
the last 25 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Johnson City Real
Estate Market was 11% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of
1995. The worst annual change in home values  in the Johnson City Market was
-5% in the twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2011.

The highest growth in home values in the Johnson City Real Estate Market over
a three year period was 22% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of
2007. The worst performance over a three year period in the Johnson City
Market was -6% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph of the Johnson City Home Price Index
(above). For information about Tennessee home values, click Real Estate
Market Forecasts in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long
term charts and analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical
trends of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then
LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research and statistics about Johnson City Home
Prices will be at your fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Johnson City Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index,
as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Johnson City Real Estate Market and
hundreds of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a
number of months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Johnson City, Tennessee

The trend of Johnson City Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas
is detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2017, Johnson City Home Prices had a rank of 359,
with appreciation of -1.84%. The top performing real estate market during the
3rd Quarter was Pine Bluff, AR, with a rise of 7.86%. The worst market during
that period was Weirton, OH, with appreciation of -9.33%.
The median for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 1.52%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 1.39%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Johnson City Home Prices had a rank of 337, with
appreciation during the year of 1.64%. The top performing market during the
last year was Seattle, WA, with an increase of 14.2%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Lawton, OK, with appreciation of -7.3%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.41%. The average was
5.42%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2017, Johnson City Home
Prices ranked 335, with a total appreciation of 7.3%. The top performing real
estate market during the 5 year period was Reno, NV, with a growth in value of
95%. The worst market during that period was Lawton, OK, with appreciation of
-7%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 20%. The average over the
5 years was 26%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2017, Johnson City Home
Prices had a rank of 178, with appreciation during the decade of 7%. The top
performing market during the period was Denver, CO, with a rise of 63%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Atlantic City, NJ,
with appreciation of -28%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 5%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 7%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2017, Johnson City Home
Prices had a rank of 265, with total growth over the 20 year period of 64%. The
top performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA,
with an increase of 283%. The worst market during the last 20 years was
Mansfield, OH, with appreciation of 20%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 80%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 89%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Johnson City Real
Estate Market is available back to the 2nd Quarter, of 1992. All calculations are
based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Johnson City. Real
estate appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each
time period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Monday, January 15, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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