Fresno, CA - House Price Index (HPI)
Fresno Real Estate Market Forecast
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Fresno, CA single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Updated Monday, June 22, 2015. Real estate
forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation rates are provided below.
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Fresno Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
Commentary  18569
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Statistics: Fresno, California


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      73%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Fresno housing market for the 12
months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2015 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Projection for Fresno is 73%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 73% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Fresno is 73% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2015 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2014. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Fresno Real
Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      69%

The forecast for the trend in the Fresno housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 3rd Quarter of 2017 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
Fresno is 69%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 69% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Fresno is 69% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2017 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2014. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Fresno Real
Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Data: Fresno, California


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     1.80%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  10.7%
Last 5 Years                                     11%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -12%
Last 20 Years                                   82%
Decline From All Time High               35.10%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1984      4.63%
1985      1.66%
1986      4.58%
1987      -0.46%
1988      4.41%
1989      7.16%
1990      11.26%
1991      8.23%
1992      1.16%
1993      -0.09%
1994      -4.12%
1995      1.50%
1996      -1.99%
1997      2.49%
1998      2.18%
1999      -0.04%
2000      5.73%
2001      10.31%
2002      16.17%
2003      21.21%
2004      26.12%
2005      24.46%
2006      3.73%
2007      -12.15%
2008      -25.93%
2009      -8.52%
2010      -5.08%
2011      -7.72%
2012      3.19%
2013      12.75%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              1.80%         Rank: 148 of 381 (61st Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  10.7%          Rank: 33 of 381 (91st Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              11%            Rank: 68 of 381 (82nd Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   -12%           Rank: 353 of 381 (7th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            82%            Rank: 151 of 378 (60th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        35.10%

The change in home prices for Fresno, CA are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Fresno appreciated 1.80% in the Last Quarter. At that
rate, the Fresno Real Estate Market was ranked 148th out of 381 metropolitan
Real Estate Markets. Fresno was in the 61st percentile. So Fresno, CA
performed better in the Last Quarter than 61% of the 381 metropolitan areas
covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Statistics: Fresno, California

The all time high in the Fresno Home Price Index was 283.7 in the 3rd Quarter,
of 2006. The 3rd Quarter, 2014 index value was 184.1. That's a decline of
99.58 points or 35.10% below the Fresno Home Price Index all time high.  The
Home Price Index indicates that the Fresno Market is down 12% over the last 10
years. Home prices in the Fresno Real Estate Market have gained 10.74% over
the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 148%.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 3.26 points higher than the 2nd Quarter, 2014
index value of 180.88, resulting in a 1.80% rise in the 3rd Quarter for the
Fresno Market.

The Fresno Home Price Index has increased for the last 10 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in
the last 13 consecutive quarters. The current record holder for consecutive
declines in the Home Price Index is Terre Haute, IN, with declines in the last 3
consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Fresno Real Estate
Market was 29% in the twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2004. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Fresno Market was -26% in the
twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2008.

The highest growth in home values in the Fresno Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 90% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of
2005. The worst performance over a three year period in the Fresno Market
was -42% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2009.

This page provides a long term graph of the Fresno Home Price Index (above).
For information about California home values, click Real Estate Market
Forecasts in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long term
charts and analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical trends
of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's
detailed research and statistics about Fresno Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Fresno Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Fresno Real Estate Market and hundreds of
other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Data: Fresno, California

The trend of Fresno Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas is
detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Fresno Home Prices had a rank of 148, with
appreciation of 1.80%. The top performing real estate market during the 3rd
Quarter was Johnstown, PA, with a rise of 7.10%. The worst market during that
period was Farmington, NM, with appreciation of -4.09%.
The median for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 1.44%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 1.49%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Fresno Home Prices had a rank of 33, with
appreciation during the year of 10.74%. The top performing market during the
last year was Madera, CA, with an increase of 19.4%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Jacksonville, NC, with appreciation of -4.5%.
The median for all markets during this period was 3.94%. The average was
4.71%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Fresno Home Prices
ranked 68, with a total appreciation of 11.0%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Merced, CA, with a growth in value of 45%.
The worst market during that period was Ocala, FL, with appreciation of -16%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 1%. The average over the
5 years was 3%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Fresno Home Prices had
a rank of 353, with appreciation during the decade of -12%. The top performing
market during the period was Midland, TX, with a rise of 129%. The worst real
estate market during the 10 year time period was Las Vegas, NV, with
appreciation of -27%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 10%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 11%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Fresno Home Prices had
a rank of 151, with total growth over the 20 year period of 82%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA, with an
increase of 229%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Rockford, IL,
with appreciation of 23%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 75%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 82%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Fresno Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1977. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Fresno. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)





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