Flagstaff, AZ - House Price Index (HPI)
Flagstaff Real Estate Market Forecast
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Flagstaff, AZ-UT single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Updated Monday, June 22, 2015. Real
estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation rates are provided below.
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Flagstaff Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
Commentary  18558
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Statistics: Flagstaff, Arizona


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      87%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Flagstaff housing market for the 12
months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2015 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Projection for Flagstaff is 87%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 87% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Flagstaff is 87% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2015 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2014. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Flagstaff
Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      85%

The forecast for the trend in the Flagstaff housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2017 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Flagstaff is 85%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 85% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Flagstaff is 85% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2017 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2014. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Flagstaff
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Data: Flagstaff, Arizona


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     1.11%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  6.9%
Last 5 Years                                     -4%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
Last 20 Years                                   120%
Decline From All Time High               21.81%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1984        n/a
1985        n/a
1986        n/a
1987      7.02%
1988      2.67%
1989      -0.20%
1990      6.84%
1991      6.64%
1992      4.26%
1993      5.45%
1994      10.79%
1995      11.94%
1996      2.23%
1997      4.33%
1998      2.85%
1999      0.61%
2000      5.83%
2001      5.24%
2002      7.07%
2003      10.11%
2004      15.96%
2005      30.07%
2006      12.28%
2007      -1.15%
2008      -8.20%
2009      -12.28%
2010      -8.33%
2011      -10.25%
2012      4.75%
2013      7.80%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              1.11%         Rank: 228 of 381 (40th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  6.9%           Rank: 98 of 381 (74th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              -4%             Rank: 293 of 381 (23rd Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   17%            Rank: 130 of 381 (66th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            120%          Rank: 46 of 378 (88th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        21.81%

The change in home prices for Flagstaff, AZ are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Flagstaff appreciated 1.11% in the Last Quarter. At that
rate, the Flagstaff Real Estate Market was ranked 228th out of 381 metropolitan
Real Estate Markets. Flagstaff was in the 40th percentile. So Flagstaff, AZ
performed better in the Last Quarter than 40% of the 381 metropolitan areas
covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Statistics: Flagstaff, Arizona

The all time high in the Flagstaff Home Price Index was 262.1 in the 4th
Quarter, of 2006. The 3rd Quarter, 2014 index value was 205.0. That's a
decline of 57.18 points or 21.81% below the Flagstaff Home Price Index all time
high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Flagstaff Market is up 17% over
the last 10 years. Home prices in the Flagstaff Real Estate Market have gained
6.89% over the last 12 months.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 2.26 points higher than the 2nd Quarter, 2014
index value of 202.70, resulting in a 1.11% rise in the 3rd Quarter for the
Flagstaff Market.

The Flagstaff Home Price Index has increased for the last 10 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in
the last 13 consecutive quarters. The current record holder for consecutive
declines in the Home Price Index is Terre Haute, IN, with declines in the last 3
consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Flagstaff Real Estate
Market was 31% in the twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 2006. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Flagstaff Market was -15% in the
twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 2010.

The highest growth in home values in the Flagstaff Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 77% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of
2006. The worst performance over a three year period in the Flagstaff Market
was -31% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph of the Flagstaff Home Price Index
(above). For information about Arizona home values, click Real Estate Market
Forecasts in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long term
charts and analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical trends
of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's
detailed research and statistics about Flagstaff Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Flagstaff Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Flagstaff Real Estate Market and hundreds
of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Data: Flagstaff, Arizona

The trend of Flagstaff Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas is
detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Flagstaff Home Prices had a rank of 228, with
appreciation of 1.11%. The top performing real estate market during the 3rd
Quarter was Johnstown, PA, with a rise of 7.10%. The worst market during that
period was Farmington, NM, with appreciation of -4.09%.
The median for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 1.44%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 1.49%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Flagstaff Home Prices had a rank of 98, with
appreciation during the year of 6.89%. The top performing market during the
last year was Madera, CA, with an increase of 19.4%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Jacksonville, NC, with appreciation of -4.5%.
The median for all markets during this period was 3.94%. The average was
4.71%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Flagstaff Home Prices
ranked 293, with a total appreciation of -4.0%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Merced, CA, with a growth in value of 45%.
The worst market during that period was Ocala, FL, with appreciation of -16%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 1%. The average over the
5 years was 3%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Flagstaff Home Prices
had a rank of 130, with appreciation during the decade of 17%. The top
performing market during the period was Midland, TX, with a rise of 129%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Las Vegas, NV, with
appreciation of -27%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 10%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 11%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Flagstaff Home Prices
had a rank of 46, with total growth over the 20 year period of 120%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA, with an
increase of 229%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Rockford, IL,
with appreciation of 23%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 75%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 82%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Flagstaff Real Estate
Market is available back to the 4th Quarter, of 1986. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Flagstaff. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)





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