Flagstaff, AZ - House Price Index (HPI)
Flagstaff Real Estate Market Forecast
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Flagstaff, AZ-UT single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics
and appreciation rates are provided below.
Flagstaff Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
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Commentary  1080.56
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Flagstaff, Arizona


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      90%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Flagstaff housing market for the 12
months ending with the 1st Quarter of 2019 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Projection for Flagstaff is 90%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 90% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Flagstaff is 90% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 1st Quarter of 2019 than they were in the 1st
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Flagstaff
Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      85%

The forecast for the trend in the Flagstaff housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 1st Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Flagstaff is 85%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 85% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Flagstaff is 85% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 1st Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 1st
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Flagstaff
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Flagstaff, Arizona


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     -1.67%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  5.4%
Last 5 Years                                     42%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Last 20 Years                                   127%
Decline From All Time High               1.67%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      0.38%
1989      1.37%
1990      6.25%
1991      7.18%
1992      4.01%
1993      5.78%
1994      10.92%
1995      11.58%
1996      2.50%
1997      4.40%
1998      2.59%
1999      0.72%
2000      5.67%
2001      5.37%
2002      6.99%
2003      10.11%
2004      16.33%
2005      29.80%
2006      12.29%
2007      -1.43%
2008      -7.93%
2009      -12.41%
2010      -8.64%
2011      -9.87%
2012      4.52%
2013      6.11%
2014      9.44%
2015      7.24%
2016      5.51%
2017      11.28%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              -1.67%        Rank: 343 of 381 (10th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  5.4%           Rank: 223 of 381 (41st Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              42%            Rank: 78 of 381 (79th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   2%              Rank: 260 of 381 (31st Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            127%          Rank: 60 of 379 (84th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        1.67%

The change in home prices for Flagstaff, AZ are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Flagstaff appreciated -1.67% in the Last Quarter. At that
rate, the Flagstaff Real Estate Market was ranked 343rd out of 381
metropolitan Real Estate Markets. Flagstaff was in the 10th percentile. So
Flagstaff, AZ performed better in the Last Quarter than 10% of the 381
metropolitan areas covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Flagstaff, Arizona

The all time high in the Flagstaff Home Price Index was 262.9 in the 4th
Quarter, of 2017. The 1st Quarter, 2018 index value was 258.5. That's a
decline of 4.40 points or 1.67% below the Flagstaff Home Price Index all time
high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Flagstaff Market is up 2% over
the last 10 years. Home prices in the Flagstaff Real Estate Market have gained
5.35% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 273%.

The 1st Quarter index value was 4.40 points lower than the 4th Quarter, 2017
index value of 262.94, resulting in a 1.67% decline for the 1st Quarter in the
Flagstaff Market.

The Flagstaff Home Price Index declined in the last quarter after increasing in
the previous 4 quarters. The current record holders for consecutive declines in
the Home Price Index are Tallahassee, FL; Syracuse, NY; Sioux City, IA;
Shreveport, LA and Peoria, IL, with declines in the last 3 consecutive quarters.
The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home Price Index
are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in the last 27
consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Flagstaff Real Estate
Market was 30% in the twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 2006. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Flagstaff Market was -15% in the
twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 2010.

The highest growth in home values in the Flagstaff Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 77% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of
2006. The worst performance over a three year period in the Flagstaff Market
was -31% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph of the Flagstaff Home Price Index
(above). For information about Arizona home values, click Real Estate Market
Forecasts in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long term
charts and analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical trends
of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's
detailed research and statistics about Flagstaff Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Flagstaff Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Flagstaff Real Estate Market and hundreds
of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Flagstaff, Arizona

The trend of Flagstaff Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas is
detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 1st Quarter of 2018, Flagstaff Home Prices had a rank of 343, with
appreciation of -1.67%. The top performing real estate market during the 1st
Quarter was Goldsboro, NC, with a rise of 9.78%. The worst market during that
period was Cumberland, MD, with appreciation of -9.30%.
The median for all cities during the 1st Quarter was 1.15%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 0.97%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Flagstaff Home Prices had a rank of 223, with
appreciation during the year of 5.35%. The top performing market during the
last year was Boise City, ID, with an increase of 15.3%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Farmington, NM, with appreciation of -6.0%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.97%. The average was
5.82%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2018, Flagstaff Home Prices
ranked 78, with a total appreciation of 42.2%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Reno, NV, with a growth in value of 90%.
The worst market during that period was Farmington, NM, with appreciation of
-4%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 20%. The average over the
5 years was 26%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, Flagstaff Home Prices
had a rank of 260, with appreciation during the decade of 2%. The top
performing market during the period was Denver, CO, with a rise of 69%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Atlantic City, NJ,
with appreciation of -26%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 8%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 9%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, Flagstaff Home Prices
had a rank of 60, with total growth over the 20 year period of 127%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA, with an
increase of 282%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Rockford, IL,
with appreciation of 18%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 79%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 88%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Flagstaff Real Estate
Market is available back to the 4th Quarter, of 1986. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Flagstaff. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, June 20, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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