Fairbanks, AK - House Price Index (HPI)
Fairbanks Real Estate Market Forecast
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Fairbanks, AK single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics
and appreciation rates are provided below.
Fairbanks Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
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Commentary  313.56
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Fairbanks, Alaska


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      68%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Fairbanks housing market for the 12
months ending with the 4th Quarter of 2018 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Projection for Fairbanks is 68%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 68% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Fairbanks is 68% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2018 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Fairbanks
Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      73%

The forecast for the trend in the Fairbanks housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 4th Quarter of 2020 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Fairbanks is 73%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 73% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Fairbanks is 73% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2020 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Fairbanks
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Fairbanks, Alaska


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     -1.09%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  3.7%
Last 5 Years                                     8%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Last 20 Years                                   70%
Decline From All Time High               1.10%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      24.30%
1989      -34.02%
1990      36.78%
1991      -5.11%
1992      14.17%
1993      6.35%
1994      3.06%
1995      2.96%
1996      6.21%
1997      3.58%
1998      2.02%
1999      -1.27%
2000      3.12%
2001      3.48%
2002      5.53%
2003      8.45%
2004      7.09%
2005      8.25%
2006      6.87%
2007      3.92%
2008      -2.07%
2009      -0.52%
2010      0.92%
2011      0.80%
2012      0.95%
2013      1.02%
2014      -0.92%
2015      2.01%
2016      1.59%
2017      3.70%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              -1.09%        Rank: 329 of 381 (13th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  3.7%           Rank: 268 of 381 (29th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              8%              Rank: 332 of 381 (12th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   8%              Rank: 176 of 381 (53rd Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            70%            Rank: 226 of 379 (40th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        1.10%

The change in home prices for Fairbanks, AK are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Fairbanks appreciated -1.09% in the Last Quarter. At
that rate, the Fairbanks Real Estate Market was ranked 329th out of 381
metropolitan Real Estate Markets. Fairbanks was in the 13th percentile. So
Fairbanks, AK performed better in the Last Quarter than 13% of the 381
metropolitan areas covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Fairbanks, Alaska

The all time high in the Fairbanks Home Price Index was 193.8 in the 1st
Quarter, of 2017. The 4th Quarter, 2017 index value was 191.7. That's a
decline of 2.13 points or 1.10% below the Fairbanks Home Price Index all time
high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Fairbanks Market is up 8% over
the last 10 years. Home prices in the Fairbanks Real Estate Market have
gained 3.70% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 157%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 2.12 points lower than the 3rd Quarter, 2017
index value of 193.82, resulting in a 1.09% decline for the 4th Quarter in the
Fairbanks Market.

The Fairbanks Home Price Index declined in the last quarter after increasing in
the previous quarter. The current record holders for consecutive declines in the
Home Price Index are Victoria, TX; Topeka, KS; Texarkana, TX-AR; Springfield,
MA and Peoria, IL, with declines in the last 2 consecutive quarters. The current
record holders for consecutive increases in the Home Price Index are Phoenix,
AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in the last 26 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Fairbanks Real Estate
Market was 37% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 1990. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Fairbanks Market was -34% in the
twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 1989.

The highest growth in home values in the Fairbanks Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 48% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of
1992. The worst performance over a three year period in the Fairbanks Market
was -36% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of 1989.

This page provides a long term graph of the Fairbanks Home Price Index
(above). For information about Alaska home values, click Real Estate Market
Forecasts in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long term
charts and analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical trends
of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's
detailed research and statistics about Fairbanks Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Fairbanks Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Fairbanks Real Estate Market and hundreds
of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Fairbanks, Alaska

The trend of Fairbanks Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas is
detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2017, Fairbanks Home Prices had a rank of 329, with
appreciation of -1.09%. The top performing real estate market during the 4th
Quarter was Gadsden, AL, with a rise of 13.11%. The worst market during that
period was Hinesville, GA, with appreciation of -6.79%.
The median for all cities during the 4th Quarter was 0.75%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 0.69%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Fairbanks Home Prices had a rank of 268, with
appreciation during the year of 3.70%. The top performing market during the
last year was Sebastian, FL, with an increase of 16.4%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Goldsboro, NC, with appreciation of -6.9%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.37%. The average was
5.53%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2017, Fairbanks Home Prices
ranked 332, with a total appreciation of 7.6%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Reno, NV, with a growth in value of 94%.
The worst market during that period was Goldsboro, NC, with appreciation of
-5%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 19%. The average over the
5 years was 25%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2017, Fairbanks Home Prices
had a rank of 176, with appreciation during the decade of 8%. The top
performing market during the period was Denver, CO, with a rise of 65%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Atlantic City, NJ,
with appreciation of -27%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 7%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 8%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2017, Fairbanks Home Prices
had a rank of 226, with total growth over the 20 year period of 70%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA, with an
increase of 280%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Saginaw, MI,
with appreciation of 18%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 79%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 89%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Fairbanks Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1987. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Fairbanks. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, March 21, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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