Charlottesville, VA - House Price Index (HPI)
Charlottesville Real Estate Market Forecast
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Charlottesville, VA single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics
and appreciation rates are provided below.
Charlottesville Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
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Commentary  266.56
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Charlottesville, Virginia


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      91%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Charlottesville housing market for the
12 months ending with the 4th Quarter of 2018 is UP. The Accuracy of the
Trend Projection for Charlottesville is 91%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 91% of the time.
Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house
prices in Charlottesville is 91% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2018 than
they were in the 4th Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the Charlottesville Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      85%

The forecast for the trend in the Charlottesville housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 4th Quarter of 2020 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Charlottesville is 85%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 85% of the time.
Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house
prices in Charlottesville is 85% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home values will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2020 than
they were in the 4th Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the Charlottesville Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Charlottesville, Virginia


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     1.03%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  5.5%
Last 5 Years                                     17%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -2%
Last 20 Years                                   123%
Decline From All Time High               1.59%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      11.55%
1989      9.45%
1990      1.03%
1991      6.48%
1992      1.33%
1993      1.57%
1994      2.21%
1995      2.26%
1996      0.81%
1997      4.47%
1998      2.63%
1999      6.86%
2000      7.60%
2001      6.89%
2002      8.75%
2003      10.88%
2004      13.26%
2005      19.24%
2006      7.24%
2007      2.65%
2008      -4.78%
2009      -7.02%
2010      -0.66%
2011      -2.02%
2012      -2.12%
2013      0.72%
2014      3.15%
2015      2.89%
2016      3.44%
2017      5.52%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              1.03%         Rank: 165 of 381 (56th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  5.5%           Rank: 186 of 381 (51st Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              17%            Rank: 221 of 381 (42nd Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   -2%            Rank: 288 of 381 (24th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            123%          Rank: 71 of 379 (81st Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        1.59%

The change in home prices for Charlottesville, VA are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Charlottesville appreciated 1.03% in the Last Quarter. At
that rate, the Charlottesville Real Estate Market was ranked 165th out of 381
metropolitan Real Estate Markets. Charlottesville was in the 56th percentile. So
Charlottesville, VA performed better in the Last Quarter than 56% of the 381
metropolitan areas covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Charlottesville, Virginia

The all time high in the Charlottesville Home Price Index was 243.6 in the 4th
Quarter, of 2007. The 4th Quarter, 2017 index value was 239.7. That's a
decline of 3.88 points or 1.59% below the Charlottesville Home Price Index all
time high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Charlottesville Market is
down 2% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the Charlottesville Real Estate
Market have gained 5.52% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it
is up 231%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 2.44 points higher than the 3rd Quarter, 2017
index value of 237.23, resulting in a 1.03% rise in the 4th Quarter for the
Charlottesville Market.

The Charlottesville Home Price Index has increased for the last 5 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in
the last 26 consecutive quarters. The current record holders for consecutive
declines in the Home Price Index are Victoria, TX; Topeka, KS; Texarkana,
TX-AR; Springfield, MA and Peoria, IL, with declines in the last 2 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Charlottesville Real
Estate Market was 20% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of
2005. The worst annual change in home values  in the Charlottesville Market
was -7% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2009.

The highest growth in home values in the Charlottesville Real Estate Market
over a three year period was 50% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter
of 2006. The worst performance over a three year period in the Charlottesville
Market was -13% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph of the Charlottesville Home Price Index
(above). For information about Virginia home values, click Real Estate Market
Forecasts in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long term
charts and analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical trends
of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's
detailed research and statistics about Charlottesville Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Charlottesville Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index,
as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Charlottesville Real Estate Market and
hundreds of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a
number of months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Charlottesville, Virginia

The trend of Charlottesville Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan
areas is detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities.
Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2017, Charlottesville Home Prices had a rank of 165,
with appreciation of 1.03%. The top performing real estate market during the
4th Quarter was Gadsden, AL, with a rise of 13.11%. The worst market during
that period was Hinesville, GA, with appreciation of -6.79%.
The median for all cities during the 4th Quarter was 0.75%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 0.69%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Charlottesville Home Prices had a rank of 186, with
appreciation during the year of 5.52%. The top performing market during the
last year was Sebastian, FL, with an increase of 16.4%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Goldsboro, NC, with appreciation of -6.9%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.37%. The average was
5.53%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2017, Charlottesville Home
Prices ranked 221, with a total appreciation of 16.7%. The top performing real
estate market during the 5 year period was Reno, NV, with a growth in value of
94%. The worst market during that period was Goldsboro, NC, with appreciation
of -5%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 19%. The average over the
5 years was 25%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2017, Charlottesville Home
Prices had a rank of 288, with appreciation during the decade of -2%. The top
performing market during the period was Denver, CO, with a rise of 65%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Atlantic City, NJ,
with appreciation of -27%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 7%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 8%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2017, Charlottesville Home
Prices had a rank of 71, with total growth over the 20 year period of 123%. The
top performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA,
with an increase of 280%. The worst market during the last 20 years was
Saginaw, MI, with appreciation of 18%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 79%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 89%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Charlottesville Real
Estate Market is available back to the 3rd Quarter, of 1985. All calculations are
based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Charlottesville. Real
estate appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each
time period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Friday, March 16, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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