Commentary  18505
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Statistics: Charlotte, North Carolina


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      92%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Charlotte housing market for the 12
months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2015 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Projection for Charlotte is 92%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 92% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Charlotte is 92% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2015 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2014. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Charlotte
Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      90%

The forecast for the trend in the Charlotte housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2017 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Charlotte is 90%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 90% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Charlotte is 90% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2017 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2014. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Charlotte
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Data: Charlotte, North Carolina


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     0.53%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  4.5%
Last 5 Years                                     -1%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
Last 20 Years                                   72%
Decline From All Time High               6.43%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1984      9.69%
1985      5.55%
1986      7.13%
1987      7.99%
1988      5.24%
1989      4.47%
1990      0.33%
1991      3.48%
1992      2.32%
1993      2.25%
1994      3.73%
1995      5.18%
1996      5.57%
1997      5.83%
1998      4.75%
1999      3.94%
2000      3.87%
2001      4.53%
2002      2.41%
2003      2.64%
2004      3.17%
2005      5.19%
2006      7.72%
2007      5.75%
2008      -0.41%
2009      -6.16%
2010      -3.00%
2011      -3.71%
2012      -0.57%
2013      5.19%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              0.53%         Rank: 284 of 381 (25th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  4.5%           Rank: 163 of 381 (57th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              -1%             Rank: 240 of 381 (37th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   15%            Rank: 151 of 381 (60th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            72%            Rank: 210 of 378 (44th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        6.43%

The change in home prices for Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC are shown
above for five time periods. For example: Charlotte appreciated 0.53% in the
Last Quarter. At that rate, the Charlotte Real Estate Market was ranked 284th
out of 381 metropolitan Real Estate Markets. Charlotte was in the 25th
percentile. So Charlotte, NC performed better in the Last Quarter than 25% of
the 381 metropolitan areas covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Statistics: Charlotte, North Carolina

The data and analysis on this page pertains to Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia,
NC-SC, hereinafter referred to as "Charlotte". The all time high in the Charlotte
Home Price Index was 180.7 in the 2nd Quarter, of 2008. The 3rd Quarter,
2014 index value was 169.1. That's a decline of 11.62 points or 6.43% below
the Charlotte Home Price Index all time high.  The Home Price Index indicates
that the Charlotte Market is up 15% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the
Charlotte Real Estate Market have gained 4.54% over the last 12 months. Over
the last thirty years, it is up 163%.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 0.89 points higher than the 2nd Quarter, 2014
index value of 168.23, resulting in a 0.53% rise in the 3rd Quarter for the
Charlotte Market.

The Charlotte Home Price Index has increased for the last 9 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in
the last 13 consecutive quarters. The current record holder for consecutive
declines in the Home Price Index is Terre Haute, IN, with declines in the last 3
consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Charlotte Real Estate
Market was 19% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 1978. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Charlotte Market was -9% in the
twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 2010.

The highest growth in home values in the Charlotte Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 26% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of
1981. The worst performance over a three year period in the Charlotte Market
was -15% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph of the Charlotte Home Price Index
(above). For information about North Carolina home values, click Real Estate
Market Forecasts in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long
term charts and analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical
trends of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then
LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research and statistics about Charlotte Home
Prices will be at your fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Charlotte Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Charlotte Real Estate Market and hundreds
of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2014 Housing Data: Charlotte, North Carolina

The trend of Charlotte Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas is
detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period. The data and analysis on this page pertains
to Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC, hereinafter referred to as "Charlotte".

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Charlotte Home Prices had a rank of 284, with
appreciation of 0.53%. The top performing real estate market during the 3rd
Quarter was Johnstown, PA, with a rise of 7.10%. The worst market during that
period was Farmington, NM, with appreciation of -4.09%.
The median for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 1.44%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 1.49%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Charlotte Home Prices had a rank of 163, with
appreciation during the year of 4.54%. The top performing market during the
last year was Madera, CA, with an increase of 19.4%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Jacksonville, NC, with appreciation of -4.5%.
The median for all markets during this period was 3.94%. The average was
4.71%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Charlotte Home Prices
ranked 240, with a total appreciation of -1.4%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Merced, CA, with a growth in value of 45%.
The worst market during that period was Ocala, FL, with appreciation of -16%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 1%. The average over the
5 years was 3%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Charlotte Home Prices
had a rank of 151, with appreciation during the decade of 15%. The top
performing market during the period was Midland, TX, with a rise of 129%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Las Vegas, NV, with
appreciation of -27%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 10%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 11%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2014, Charlotte Home Prices
had a rank of 210, with total growth over the 20 year period of 72%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA, with an
increase of 229%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Rockford, IL,
with appreciation of 23%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 75%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 82%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Charlotte Real Estate
Market is available back to the 3rd Quarter, of 1978. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Charlotte. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)





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Charlotte, NC - House Price Index (HPI)
Charlotte Real Estate Market Forecast
100
1000
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC single family
home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Updated Friday, June 19,
2015. Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation rates are provided below.
10
Charlotte Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
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