Bakersfield, CA - House Price Index (HPI)
Bakersfield Real Estate Market Forecast
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Bakersfield-Delano, CA single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics
and appreciation rates are provided below.
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Bakersfield Real Estate Market: Trend Outlook, Analysis & Statistics
Commentary  27609
3rd Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Bakersfield, California


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      74%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Bakersfield housing market for the 12
months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2018 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Projection for Bakersfield is 74%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 74% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Bakersfield is 74% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2018 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Bakersfield
Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      71%

The forecast for the trend in the Bakersfield housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2020 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Bakersfield is 71%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 71% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Bakersfield is 71% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2020 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Bakersfield
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Bakersfield, California


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     -0.64%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  4.0%
Last 5 Years                                     42%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -22%
Last 20 Years                                   104%
Decline From All Time High               27.62%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1987      -1.67%
1988      4.39%
1989      5.34%
1990      7.93%
1991      5.46%
1992      0.86%
1993      -0.80%
1994      -7.06%
1995      0.76%
1996      -1.80%
1997      1.87%
1998      2.73%
1999      -1.78%
2000      6.32%
2001      7.48%
2002      10.79%
2003      17.15%
2004      32.03%
2005      29.11%
2006      7.29%
2007      -12.05%
2008      -29.66%
2009      -12.07%
2010      -3.75%
2011      -7.35%
2012      7.09%
2013      16.82%
2014      8.86%
2015      3.47%
2016      3.96%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              -0.64%        Rank: 334 of 381 (12th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  4.0%           Rank: 251 of 381 (34th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              42%            Rank: 76 of 381 (80th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   -22%           Rank: 378 of 381 (Bottom .70%)
Last 20 Years                            104%          Rank: 116 of 379 (69th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        27.62%

The change in home prices for Bakersfield, CA are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Bakersfield appreciated -0.64% in the Last Quarter. At
that rate, the Bakersfield Real Estate Market was ranked 334th out of 381
metropolitan Real Estate Markets. Bakersfield was in the 12th percentile. So
Bakersfield, CA performed better in the Last Quarter than 12% of the 381
metropolitan areas covered in LittleBigHomes.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Bakersfield, California

The data and analysis on this page pertains to Bakersfield, CA, hereinafter
referred to as "Bakersfield". The all time high in the Bakersfield Home Price
Index was 278.0 in the 4th Quarter, of 2006. The 3rd Quarter, 2017 index value
was 201.2. That's a decline of 76.79 points or 27.62% below the Bakersfield
Home Price Index all time high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the
Bakersfield Market is down 22% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the
Bakersfield Real Estate Market have gained 3.96% over the last 12 months.
Over the last thirty years, it is up 128%.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 1.30 points lower than the 2nd Quarter, 2017
index value of 202.53, resulting in a 0.64% decline for the 3rd Quarter in the
Bakersfield Market.

The Bakersfield Home Price Index declined in the last quarter after increasing in
the previous 21 quarters. The current record holder for consecutive declines in
the Home Price Index is Carbondale, IL, with declines in the last 3 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index are Phoenix, AZ; Houston, TX and Boise City, ID, with increases in
the last 25 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Bakersfield Real
Estate Market was 35% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of
2005. The worst annual change in home values  in the Bakersfield Market was
-30% in the twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2008.

The highest growth in home values in the Bakersfield Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 102% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of
2006. The worst performance over a three year period in the Bakersfield
Market was -46% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2009.

This page provides a long term graph of the Bakersfield Home Price Index
(above). For information about California home values, click Real Estate Market
Forecasts in the navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long term
charts and analysis that will provide tremendous insight into the historical trends
of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's
detailed research and statistics about Bakersfield Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Bakersfield Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Bakersfield Real Estate Market and hundreds
of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Bakersfield, California

The trend of Bakersfield Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas is
detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period. The data and analysis on this page pertains
to Bakersfield, CA, hereinafter referred to as "Bakersfield".

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2017, Bakersfield Home Prices had a rank of 334,
with appreciation of -0.64%. The top performing real estate market during the
3rd Quarter was Pine Bluff, AR, with a rise of 7.86%. The worst market during
that period was Weirton, OH, with appreciation of -9.33%.
The median for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 1.52%. The average for all
markets during the quarter was 1.39%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Bakersfield Home Prices had a rank of 251, with
appreciation during the year of 3.96%. The top performing market during the
last year was Seattle, WA, with an increase of 14.2%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Lawton, OK, with appreciation of -7.3%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.41%. The average was
5.42%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2017, Bakersfield Home Prices
ranked 76, with a total appreciation of 42.4%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Reno, NV, with a growth in value of 95%.
The worst market during that period was Lawton, OK, with appreciation of -7%.
The median for all cities during this time period was 20%. The average over the
5 years was 26%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2017, Bakersfield Home Prices
had a rank of 378, with appreciation during the decade of -22%. The top
performing market during the period was Denver, CO, with a rise of 63%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Atlantic City, NJ,
with appreciation of -28%.
The median for all markets during the last 10 years was 5%. The average for
the cities over that time frame was 7%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2017, Bakersfield Home Prices
had a rank of 116, with total growth over the 20 year period of 104%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was San Francisco, CA, with an
increase of 283%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Mansfield,
OH, with appreciation of 20%.
The median for all cities during the last 20 years was 80%. The average for the
markets over that time frame was 89%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Bakersfield Real Estate
Market is available back to the 3rd Quarter, of 1977. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Bakersfield. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Thursday, December 7, 2017.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2017; All rights reserved.


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