Commentary  25956
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Washington


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      90%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Washington housing market for the 12 months ending with the 2nd Quarter of
2018 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Washington is 90%. In
other words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology
was correct 90% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the
probability for rising house prices in Washington is 90% during this period. If
this Housing Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 2nd
Quarter of 2018 than they were in the 2nd Quarter of 2017. Check this page
each quarter for updates to the Washington Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      86%

The forecast for the trend in the Washington housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 2nd Quarter of 2020 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Washington is 86%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 86% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Washington is 86% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is
correct, home values will be higher in the 2nd Quarter of 2020 than they were in
the 2nd Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the
Washington Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Washington


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     4.42%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  11.4%
Last 5 Years                                     51%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
Last 20 Years                                   148%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1987      3.08%
1988      6.75%
1989      19.76%
1990      16.06%
1991      5.84%
1992      3.84%
1993      4.11%
1994      3.53%
1995      4.40%
1996      2.44%
1997      5.46%
1998      6.59%
1999      4.76%
2000      5.49%
2001      5.57%
2002      4.60%
2003      5.57%
2004      11.41%
2005      18.29%
2006      12.63%
2007      3.77%
2008      -6.17%
2009      -9.44%
2010      -4.58%
2011      -5.40%
2012      0.70%
2013      6.05%
2014      7.17%
2015      9.58%
2016      10.60%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              4.42%         Rank: 2 of 51 (98th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  11.4%          Rank: 1 of 51 (100th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              51%            Rank: 7 of 51 (88th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   14%            Rank: 14 of 51 (74th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            148%          Rank: 6 of 51 (90th Percentile)


The change in home prices for Washington are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Washington appreciated 4.42% in the Last Quarter. At
that rate, the Washington Real Estate Market was ranked 2nd out of the 51 real
estate markets of all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Washington
was in the 98th percentile. So Washington performed better in the Last Quarter
than 98% of these 51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Washington

The data and analysis on this page pertains to Washington, hereinafter
referred to as "Washington". The all time high in the Washington Home Price
Index was 568.0 in the 2nd Quarter, of 2017.  The Home Price Index indicates
that the Washington Market is up 14% over the last 10 years. Home prices in
the Washington Real Estate Market have gained 11.40% over the last 12
months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 381%.

The 2nd Quarter index value was 24.05 points higher than the 1st Quarter,
2017 index value of 543.92, resulting in a 4.42% rise in the 2nd Quarter for the
Washington Market.

The Washington Home Price Index has increased for the last 20 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 25 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index is Alaska, with declines in the last 1 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Washington Real
Estate Market was 27% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of
1978. The worst annual change in home values  in the Washington Market was
-10% in the twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 2010.

The highest growth in home values in the Washington Real Estate Market over
a three year period was 49% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of
2006. The worst performance over a three year period in the Washington
Market was -22% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Washington
Home Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed
research and statistics about Washington Home Prices will be at your fingertips
when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Washington Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Washington Real Estate Market. As a result,
Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each
quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Washington

The trend of Washington Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period. The
data and analysis on this page pertains to Washington, hereinafter referred to
as "Washington".

Last Quarter:
During the 2nd Quarter of 2017, Washington Home Prices had a rank of 2, with
appreciation of 4.42%. The top performing real estate market during the 2nd
Quarter was Idaho, with a rise of 4.76%. The worst market during that period
was Alaska, with appreciation of -0.14%.
The median for all markets during the 2nd Quarter was 2.34%. The average for
the quarter was 2.31%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Washington Home Prices outperformed every state,
with appreciation during the year of 11.40%. The worst performer during that
period was Alaska, with appreciation of 0.7%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.28%. The average was
5.57%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2017, Washington Home Prices
ranked 7, with a total appreciation of 51.1%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 81%.
The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 19%. The average over the 5
years was 26%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 2nd Quarter of 2017, Washington Home
Prices had a rank of 14, with appreciation during the decade of 14%. The top
performing market during the period was North Dakota, with a rise of 53%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Nevada, with
appreciation of -17%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 6%. The average over
that time frame was 7%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 2nd Quarter of 2017, Washington Home
Prices had a rank of 6, with total growth over the 20 year period of 148%. The
top performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with
an increase of 343%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 43%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 98%. The average  
over that period was 103%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Washington Real
Estate Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are
based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Washington. Real
estate appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each
time period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Tuesday, November 7, 2017.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2017; All rights reserved.


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Washington Real Estate Market & Home Price Forecast
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Washington - House Price Index (HPI)
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Washington single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and
appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
1980
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1995
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2010
2035
2015
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