Commentary  25916
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Washington DC


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      78%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Washington DC housing market for the 12 months ending with the 1st Quarter
of 2019 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Washington DC is 78%.
In other words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology
was correct 78% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the
probability for rising house prices in Washington DC is 78% during this period. If
this Housing Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 1st
Quarter of 2019 than they were in the 1st Quarter of 2018. Check this page
each quarter for updates to the Washington DC Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      70%

The forecast for the trend in the Washington DC housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 1st Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Washington DC is 70%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 70% of the time.
Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house
prices in Washington DC is 70% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home values will be higher in the 1st Quarter of 2021 than
they were in the 1st Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the Washington DC Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Washington DC


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     1.53%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  7.3%
Last 5 Years                                     45%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45%
Last 20 Years                                   347%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      16.80%
1989      9.79%
1990      0.80%
1991      2.51%
1992      0.62%
1993      0.23%
1994      -6.53%
1995      5.50%
1996      -1.61%
1997      0.34%
1998      8.58%
1999      9.20%
2000      13.86%
2001      16.89%
2002      15.16%
2003      13.28%
2004      22.96%
2005      23.16%
2006      5.47%
2007      -0.30%
2008      -7.93%
2009      -2.29%
2010      0.73%
2011      1.43%
2012      4.68%
2013      9.85%
2014      8.43%
2015      7.36%
2016      5.80%
2017      7.19%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              1.53%         Rank: 18 of 51 (66th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  7.3%           Rank: 14 of 51 (74th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              45%            Rank: 8 of 51 (86th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   45%            Rank: 3 of 51 (96th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            347%          Rank: 1 of 51 (100th Percentile)


The change in home prices for Washington DC are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Washington DC appreciated 1.53% in the Last Quarter.
At that rate, the Washington DC Real Estate Market was ranked 18th out of the
51 real estate markets of all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia.
Washington DC was in the 66th percentile. So Washington DC performed better
in the Last Quarter than 66% of these 51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Washington DC

The all time high in the Washington DC Home Price Index was 879.1 in the 1st
Quarter, of 2018.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Washington DC
Market is up 45% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the Washington DC
Real Estate Market have gained 7.29% over the last 12 months. Over the last
thirty years, it is up 471%.

The 1st Quarter index value was 13.26 points higher than the 4th Quarter,
2017 index value of 865.81, resulting in a 1.53% rise in the 1st Quarter for the
Washington DC Market.

The Washington DC Home Price Index has increased for the last 28
consecutive quarters. That makes Washington DC the current record holder for
consecutive quarterly increases in the Home Price Index  The current record
holders for consecutive declines in the Home Price Index are North Dakota and
Connecticut, with declines in the last 2 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Washington DC Real
Estate Market was 30% in the twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of
1979. The worst annual change in home values  in the Washington DC Market
was -8% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2008.

The highest growth in home values in the Washington DC Real Estate Market
over a three year period was 72% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter
of 2005. The worst performance over a three year period in the Washington DC
Market was -12% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2010.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Washington DC
Home Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed
research and statistics about Washington DC Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Washington DC Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price
Index, as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Washington DC Real Estate Market. As a
result, Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of
each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Washington DC

The trend of Washington DC Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District
of Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 1st Quarter of 2018, Washington DC Home Prices had a rank of 18,
with appreciation of 1.53%. The top performing real estate market during the
1st Quarter was Nevada, with a rise of 3.23%. The worst market during that
period was Alaska, with appreciation of -0.96%.
The median for all markets during the 1st Quarter was 1.11%. The average for
the quarter was 1.11%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Washington DC Home Prices had a rank of 14, with
appreciation during the year of 7.29%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 13.2%. The worst real estate market
during that period was North Dakota, with appreciation of 0.6%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.98%. The average was
6.06%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2018, Washington DC Home
Prices ranked 8, with a total appreciation of 44.6%. The top performing real
estate market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of
83%. The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of
4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 21%. The average over the 5
years was 27%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, Washington DC Home
Prices had a rank of 3, with appreciation during the decade of 45%. The top
performing market during the period was Colorado, with a rise of 52%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with
appreciation of -14%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 10%. The average over
that time frame was 12%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, Washington DC Home
Prices outperformed every state, with total appreciation of 347%. The worst
performer during the last 20 years was Ohio, with appreciation of 41%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 98%. The average  
over that period was 103%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Washington DC Real
Estate Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are
based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Washington DC. Real
estate appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each
time period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Saturday, August 18, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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Washington DC - House Price Index (HPI)
LittleBigHomes.com
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Washington DC single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics
and appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
500
5000
50