Commentary  25916
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Washington DC


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      78%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Washington DC housing market for the 12 months ending with the 4th Quarter
of 2018 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Washington DC is 78%.
In other words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology
was correct 78% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the
probability for rising house prices in Washington DC is 78% during this period. If
this Housing Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 4th
Quarter of 2018 than they were in the 4th Quarter of 2017. Check this page
each quarter for updates to the Washington DC Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      70%

The forecast for the trend in the Washington DC housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 4th Quarter of 2020 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Washington DC is 70%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 70% of the time.
Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house
prices in Washington DC is 70% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home values will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2020 than
they were in the 4th Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the Washington DC Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Washington DC


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     1.26%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  7.2%
Last 5 Years                                     45%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40%
Last 20 Years                                   358%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      16.81%
1989      9.79%
1990      0.79%
1991      2.52%
1992      0.62%
1993      0.24%
1994      -6.54%
1995      5.48%
1996      -1.59%
1997      0.34%
1998      8.56%
1999      9.22%
2000      13.86%
2001      16.89%
2002      15.16%
2003      13.28%
2004      22.93%
2005      23.18%
2006      5.49%
2007      -0.31%
2008      -7.93%
2009      -2.28%
2010      0.72%
2011      1.44%
2012      4.71%
2013      9.91%
2014      8.38%
2015      7.48%
2016      5.77%
2017      7.21%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              1.26%         Rank: 13 of 51 (76th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  7.2%           Rank: 13 of 51 (76th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              45%            Rank: 8 of 51 (86th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   40%            Rank: 4 of 51 (94th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            358%          Rank: 1 of 51 (100th Percentile)


The change in home prices for Washington DC are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Washington DC appreciated 1.26% in the Last Quarter.
At that rate, the Washington DC Real Estate Market was ranked 13th out of the
51 real estate markets of all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia.
Washington DC was in the 76th percentile. So Washington DC performed better
in the Last Quarter than 76% of these 51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Washington DC

The all time high in the Washington DC Home Price Index was 867.1 in the 4th
Quarter, of 2017.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Washington DC
Market is up 40% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the Washington DC
Real Estate Market have gained 7.21% over the last 12 months. Over the last
thirty years, it is up 496%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 10.79 points higher than the 3rd Quarter,
2017 index value of 856.34, resulting in a 1.26% rise in the 4th Quarter for the
Washington DC Market.

The Washington DC Home Price Index has increased for the last 27
consecutive quarters. That makes Washington DC the current record holder for
consecutive quarterly increases in the Home Price Index  The current record
holders for consecutive declines in the Home Price Index are North Dakota and
Connecticut, with declines in the last 1 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Washington DC Real
Estate Market was 30% in the twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of
1979. The worst annual change in home values  in the Washington DC Market
was -8% in the twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2008.

The highest growth in home values in the Washington DC Real Estate Market
over a three year period was 72% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter
of 2005. The worst performance over a three year period in the Washington DC
Market was -12% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2010.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Washington DC
Home Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed
research and statistics about Washington DC Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Washington DC Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price
Index, as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Washington DC Real Estate Market. As a
result, Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of
each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Washington DC

The trend of Washington DC Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District
of Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2017, Washington DC Home Prices had a rank of 13,
with appreciation of 1.26%. The top performing real estate market during the
4th Quarter was Nevada, with a rise of 2.66%. The worst market during that
period was North Dakota, with appreciation of -0.47%.
The median for all markets during the 4th Quarter was 0.82%. The average for
the quarter was 0.83%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Washington DC Home Prices had a rank of 13, with
appreciation during the year of 7.21%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 11.7%. The worst real estate market
during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 1.2%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.46%. The average was
5.69%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2017, Washington DC Home
Prices ranked 8, with a total appreciation of 45.2%. The top performing real
estate market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of
82%. The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of
4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 20%. The average over the 5
years was 27%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2017, Washington DC Home
Prices had a rank of 4, with appreciation during the decade of 40%. The top
performing market during the period was North Dakota, with a rise of 51%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with
appreciation of -14%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 9%. The average over
that time frame was 10%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2017, Washington DC Home
Prices outperformed every state, with total appreciation of 358%. The worst
performer during the last 20 years was Ohio, with appreciation of 42%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 96%. The average  
over that period was 103%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Washington DC Real
Estate Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are
based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Washington DC. Real
estate appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each
time period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, May 9, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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Washington DC - House Price Index (HPI)
LittleBigHomes.com
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Washington DC single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics
and appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
1980
1985
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1995
2000
2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
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500
5000
50