Commentary  25955
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Vermont


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      72%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Vermont housing market for the 12 months ending with the 2nd Quarter of 2018
is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Vermont is 72%. In other words,
when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct
72% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability
for rising house prices in Vermont is 72% during this period. If this Housing
Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 2nd Quarter of
2018 than they were in the 2nd Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter
for updates to the Vermont Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      76%

The forecast for the trend in the Vermont housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 2nd Quarter of 2020 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
Vermont is 76%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 76% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Vermont is 76% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 2nd Quarter of 2020 than they were in the 2nd
Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Vermont Real
Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Vermont


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     0.66%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  1.8%
Last 5 Years                                     6%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Last 20 Years                                   109%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1987      15.06%
1988      11.31%
1989      7.15%
1990      -0.35%
1991      -1.36%
1992      1.49%
1993      0.88%
1994      -0.17%
1995      1.53%
1996      -0.22%
1997      1.92%
1998      3.14%
1999      5.09%
2000      8.19%
2001      7.47%
2002      7.02%
2003      10.87%
2004      13.22%
2005      12.49%
2006      5.96%
2007      0.33%
2008      -0.79%
2009      -2.65%
2010      0.34%
2011      -0.43%
2012      -0.25%
2013      -0.02%
2014      0.76%
2015      1.42%
2016      1.90%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              0.66%         Rank: 46 of 51 (10th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  1.8%           Rank: 47 of 51 (8th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              6%              Rank: 50 of 51 (2nd Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   2%              Rank: 36 of 51 (30th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            109%          Rank: 21 of 51 (60th Percentile)


The change in home prices for Vermont are shown above for five time periods.
For example: Vermont appreciated 0.66% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the
Vermont Real Estate Market was ranked 46th out of the 51 real estate markets
of all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Vermont was in the 10th
percentile. So Vermont performed better in the Last Quarter than 10% of these
51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Vermont

The data and analysis on this page pertains to Vermont, hereinafter referred to
as "Vermont". The all time high in the Vermont Home Price Index was 465.0 in
the 2nd Quarter, of 2017.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Vermont
Market is up 2% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the Vermont Real Estate
Market have gained 1.84% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it
is up 176%.

The 2nd Quarter index value was 3.05 points higher than the 1st Quarter, 2017
index value of 461.90, resulting in a 0.66% rise in the 2nd Quarter for the
Vermont Market.

The Vermont Home Price Index has increased for the last 2 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 25 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index is Alaska, with declines in the last 1 consecutive quarters.

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Vermont Home
Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research
and statistics about Vermont Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you
need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Vermont Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Vermont Real Estate Market. As a result,
Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each
quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Vermont

The trend of Vermont Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period. The
data and analysis on this page pertains to Vermont, hereinafter referred to as
"Vermont".

Last Quarter:
During the 2nd Quarter of 2017, Vermont Home Prices had a rank of 46, with
appreciation of 0.66%. The top performing real estate market during the 2nd
Quarter was Idaho, with a rise of 4.76%. The worst market during that period
was Alaska, with appreciation of -0.14%.
The median for all markets during the 2nd Quarter was 2.34%. The average for
the quarter was 2.31%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Vermont Home Prices had a rank of 47, with
appreciation during the year of 1.84%. The top performing market during the
last year was Washington, with an increase of 11.4%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Alaska, with appreciation of 0.7%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.28%. The average was
5.57%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2017, Vermont Home Prices
ranked 50, with a total appreciation of 6.3%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 81%.
The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 19%. The average over the 5
years was 26%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 2nd Quarter of 2017, Vermont Home Prices
had a rank of 36, with appreciation during the decade of 2%. The top
performing market during the period was North Dakota, with a rise of 53%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Nevada, with
appreciation of -17%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 6%. The average over
that time frame was 7%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 2nd Quarter of 2017, Vermont Home Prices
had a rank of 21, with total growth over the 20 year period of 109%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an
increase of 343%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 43%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 98%. The average  
over that period was 103%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Vermont Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Vermont. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Tuesday, November 7, 2017.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2017; All rights reserved.


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Vermont Real Estate Market & Home Price Forecast
Vermont Real Estate: Housing Market Trend
Vermont - House Price Index (HPI)
LittleBigHomes.com
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Vermont single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and
appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
1980
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1995
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2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
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