Commentary  25953
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Utah


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      78%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Utah housing market for the 12 months ending with the 1st Quarter of 2019 is
UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Utah is 78%. In other words, when
tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 78% of
the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for
rising house prices in Utah is 78% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 1st Quarter of 2019 than
they were in the 1st Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the Utah Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      69%

The forecast for the trend in the Utah housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 1st Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
Utah is 69%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting
methodology was correct 69% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com
estimates that the probability for rising house prices in Utah is 69% during this
period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct, home values will be higher in
the 1st Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 1st Quarter of 2018. Check this
page each quarter for updates to the Utah Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Utah


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     1.85%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  9.8%
Last 5 Years                                     44%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
Last 20 Years                                   98%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      -0.55%
1989      2.97%
1990      3.07%
1991      7.34%
1992      7.57%
1993      13.24%
1994      15.54%
1995      11.33%
1996      7.13%
1997      6.06%
1998      4.08%
1999      -0.61%
2000      2.99%
2001      3.62%
2002      1.40%
2003      0.98%
2004      5.12%
2005      12.63%
2006      16.89%
2007      7.61%
2008      -5.13%
2009      -9.78%
2010      -2.67%
2011      -4.45%
2012      3.00%
2013      7.78%
2014      4.85%
2015      6.33%
2016      7.44%
2017      10.24%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              1.85%         Rank: 12 of 51 (78th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  9.8%           Rank: 5 of 51 (92nd Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              44%            Rank: 10 of 51 (82nd Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   19%            Rank: 10 of 51 (82nd Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            98%            Rank: 26 of 51 (50th Percentile)


The change in home prices for Utah are shown above for five time periods. For
example: Utah appreciated 1.85% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the Utah
Real Estate Market was ranked 12th out of the 51 real estate markets of all 50
U.S. States and the District of Columbia. Utah was in the 78th percentile. So
Utah performed better in the Last Quarter than 78% of these 51 real estate
markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Utah

The all time high in the Utah Home Price Index was 456.1 in the 1st Quarter, of
2018.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Utah Market is up 19% over the
last 10 years. Home prices in the Utah Real Estate Market have gained 9.76%
over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 304%.

The 1st Quarter index value was 8.27 points higher than the 4th Quarter, 2017
index value of 447.80, resulting in a 1.85% rise in the 1st Quarter for the Utah
Market.

The Utah Home Price Index has increased for the last 23 consecutive quarters.
The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home Price Index is
Washington DC, with increases in the last 28 consecutive quarters. The current
record holders for consecutive declines in the Home Price Index are North
Dakota and Connecticut, with declines in the last 2 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Utah Real Estate
Market was 20% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 1978. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Utah Market was -10% in the twelve
months ended with the 1st Quarter of 2010.

The highest growth in home values in the Utah Real Estate Market over a three
year period was 46% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 1995.
The worst performance over a three year period in the Utah Market was -20% in
the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Utah Home Price
Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research and
statistics about Utah Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Utah Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as used
in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price
Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Utah Real Estate Market. As a result, Home
Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Utah

The trend of Utah Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of Columbia
is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph
identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the average and
median performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 1st Quarter of 2018, Utah Home Prices had a rank of 12, with
appreciation of 1.85%. The top performing real estate market during the 1st
Quarter was Nevada, with a rise of 3.23%. The worst market during that period
was Alaska, with appreciation of -0.96%.
The median for all markets during the 1st Quarter was 1.11%. The average for
the quarter was 1.11%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Utah Home Prices had a rank of 5, with appreciation
during the year of 9.76%. The top performing market during the last year was
Nevada, with an increase of 13.2%. The worst real estate market during that
period was North Dakota, with appreciation of 0.6%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.98%. The average was
6.06%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2018, Utah Home Prices ranked
10, with a total appreciation of 43.6%. The top performing real estate market
during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 83%. The worst
market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 21%. The average over the 5
years was 27%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, Utah Home Prices had a
rank of 10, with appreciation during the decade of 19%. The top performing
market during the period was Colorado, with a rise of 52%. The worst real
estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with appreciation
of -14%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 10%. The average over
that time frame was 12%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, Utah Home Prices had a
rank of 26, with total growth over the 20 year period of 98%. The top performing
real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an increase of
347%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with appreciation of
41%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 98%. The average  
over that period was 103%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Utah Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Utah. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Saturday, August 18, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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Utah Real Estate Market & Home Price Forecast
Utah Real Estate: Housing Market Trend
Utah - House Price Index (HPI)
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Utah single family home prices in logarithmic scale.
The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation
rates are provided below.
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1995
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2005
2010
2035
2015
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2025
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500
5000
50