Commentary  25953
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Utah


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      78%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Utah housing market for the 12 months ending with the 2nd Quarter of 2018 is
UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Utah is 78%. In other words, when
tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 78% of
the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for
rising house prices in Utah is 78% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 2nd Quarter of 2018 than
they were in the 2nd Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for
updates to the Utah Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      70%

The forecast for the trend in the Utah housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 2nd Quarter of 2020 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
Utah is 70%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting
methodology was correct 70% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com
estimates that the probability for rising house prices in Utah is 70% during this
period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct, home values will be higher in
the 2nd Quarter of 2020 than they were in the 2nd Quarter of 2017. Check this
page each quarter for updates to the Utah Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Utah


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     3.44%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  9.6%
Last 5 Years                                     42%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
Last 20 Years                                   96%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1987      -4.24%
1988      -0.46%
1989      2.70%
1990      3.15%
1991      7.32%
1992      7.59%
1993      13.22%
1994      15.56%
1995      11.32%
1996      7.10%
1997      6.09%
1998      4.07%
1999      -0.62%
2000      3.00%
2001      3.61%
2002      1.41%
2003      0.96%
2004      5.14%
2005      12.62%
2006      16.88%
2007      7.63%
2008      -5.10%
2009      -9.82%
2010      -2.65%
2011      -4.44%
2012      2.98%
2013      7.82%
2014      4.95%
2015      6.31%
2016      7.45%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              3.44%         Rank: 9 of 51 (84th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  9.6%           Rank: 6 of 51 (90th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              42%            Rank: 9 of 51 (84th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   15%            Rank: 13 of 51 (76th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            96%            Rank: 27 of 51 (48th Percentile)


The change in home prices for Utah are shown above for five time periods. For
example: Utah appreciated 3.44% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the Utah
Real Estate Market was ranked 9th out of the 51 real estate markets of all 50
U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Utah was in the 84th percentile. So
Utah performed better in the Last Quarter than 84% of these 51 real estate
markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Utah

The all time high in the Utah Home Price Index was 430.8 in the 2nd Quarter, of
2017.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Utah Market is up 15% over the
last 10 years. Home prices in the Utah Real Estate Market have gained 9.62%
over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 265%.

The 2nd Quarter index value was 14.33 points higher than the 1st Quarter,
2017 index value of 416.45, resulting in a 3.44% rise in the 2nd Quarter for the
Utah Market.

The Utah Home Price Index has increased for the last 20 consecutive quarters.
The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home Price Index is
Washington DC, with increases in the last 25 consecutive quarters. The current
record holder for consecutive declines in the Home Price Index is Alaska, with
declines in the last 1 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Utah Real Estate
Market was 20% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 1978. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Utah Market was -10% in the twelve
months ended with the 1st Quarter of 2010.

The highest growth in home values in the Utah Real Estate Market over a three
year period was 46% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 1995.
The worst performance over a three year period in the Utah Market was -20% in
the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Utah Home Price
Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research and
statistics about Utah Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Utah Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as used
in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price
Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Utah Real Estate Market. As a result, Home
Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Utah

The trend of Utah Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of Columbia
is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph
identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the average and
median performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 2nd Quarter of 2017, Utah Home Prices had a rank of 9, with
appreciation of 3.44%. The top performing real estate market during the 2nd
Quarter was Idaho, with a rise of 4.76%. The worst market during that period
was Alaska, with appreciation of -0.14%.
The median for all markets during the 2nd Quarter was 2.34%. The average for
the quarter was 2.31%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Utah Home Prices had a rank of 6, with appreciation
during the year of 9.62%. The top performing market during the last year was
Washington, with an increase of 11.4%. The worst real estate market during
that period was Alaska, with appreciation of 0.7%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.28%. The average was
5.57%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2017, Utah Home Prices
ranked 9, with a total appreciation of 42.2%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 81%.
The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 19%. The average over the 5
years was 26%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 2nd Quarter of 2017, Utah Home Prices had a
rank of 13, with appreciation during the decade of 15%. The top performing
market during the period was North Dakota, with a rise of 53%. The worst real
estate market during the 10 year time period was Nevada, with appreciation of
-17%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 6%. The average over
that time frame was 7%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 2nd Quarter of 2017, Utah Home Prices had a
rank of 27, with total growth over the 20 year period of 96%. The top performing
real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an increase of
343%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with appreciation of
43%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 98%. The average  
over that period was 103%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Utah Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Utah. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Tuesday, November 7, 2017.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2017; All rights reserved.


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Utah Real Estate Market & Home Price Forecast
Utah Real Estate: Housing Market Trend
Utah - House Price Index (HPI)
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Utah single family home prices in logarithmic scale.
The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation
rates are provided below.
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2035
2015
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500
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