Commentary  25960
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: U.S.


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      94%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
U.S. housing market for the 12 months ending with the 4th Quarter of 2018 is
UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for U.S. is 94%. In other words, when
tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 94% of
the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for
rising house prices in U.S. is 94% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2018 than
they were in the 4th Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the U.S. Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      88%

The forecast for the trend in the U.S. housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 4th Quarter of 2020 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
U.S. is 88%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting
methodology was correct 88% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com
estimates that the probability for rising house prices in U.S. is 88% during this
period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct, home values will be higher in
the 4th Quarter of 2020 than they were in the 4th Quarter of 2017. Check this
page each quarter for updates to the U.S. Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: U.S.


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     0.85%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  6.3%
Last 5 Years                                     31%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Last 20 Years                                   101%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      5.63%
1989      5.60%
1990      1.19%
1991      3.12%
1992      2.42%
1993      2.64%
1994      1.58%
1995      4.56%
1996      2.55%
1997      4.41%
1998      5.06%
1999      4.94%
2000      7.08%
2001      7.11%
2002      6.70%
2003      6.96%
2004      10.30%
2005      11.22%
2006      4.53%
2007      -1.13%
2008      -7.10%
2009      -5.23%
2010      -1.87%
2011      -3.29%
2012      0.63%
2013      4.63%
2014      5.21%
2015      5.39%
2016      5.80%
2017      6.33%




































Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: U.S.

The all time high in the U.S. Home Price Index was 408.9 in the 4th Quarter, of
2017.  The Home Price Index indicates that the U.S. Market is up 10% over the
last 10 years. Home prices in the U.S. Real Estate Market have gained 6.33%
over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 179%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 3.46 points higher than the 3rd Quarter, 2017
index value of 405.45, resulting in a 0.85% rise in the 4th Quarter for the U.S.
Market.

The U.S. Home Price Index has increased for the last 22 consecutive quarters.  

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the U.S. Real Estate
Market was 15% in the twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 1979. The
worst annual change in home values  in the U.S. Market was -7% in the twelve
months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2008.

The highest growth in home values in the U.S. Real Estate Market over a three
year period was 32% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2006.
The worst performance over a three year period in the U.S. Market was -15% in
the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph of the U.S. Home Price Index (above).
For information about  home values, click Real Estate Market Forecasts in the
navigation bar at the top of this page.  You'll see long term charts and analysis
that will provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of residential
property values. Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed
research and statistics about U.S. Home Prices will be at your fingertips when
you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the U.S. Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as used in
this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price
Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the U.S. Real Estate Market and hundreds of
other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.
































Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, May 9, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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USA - House Price Index (HPI)
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in USA single family home prices in logarithmic scale.
The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation
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1975
1980
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2035
2015
2020
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500
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