Commentary  25952
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Texas


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      85%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Texas housing market for the 12 months ending with the 4th Quarter of 2018 is
UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Texas is 85%. In other words,
when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct
85% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability
for rising house prices in Texas is 85% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2018 than
they were in the 4th Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the Texas Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      77%

The forecast for the trend in the Texas housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 4th Quarter of 2020 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
Texas is 77%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 77% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Texas is 77% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2020 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Texas Real
Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Texas


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     0.85%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  7.8%
Last 5 Years                                     42%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43%
Last 20 Years                                   127%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      -1.69%
1989      2.72%
1990      0.29%
1991      3.52%
1992      3.46%
1993      3.34%
1994      0.33%
1995      3.74%
1996      1.44%
1997      3.45%
1998      5.05%
1999      5.88%
2000      5.89%
2001      6.13%
2002      3.79%
2003      2.04%
2004      3.46%
2005      5.00%
2006      5.70%
2007      4.11%
2008      0.73%
2009      -0.75%
2010      -0.45%
2011      -1.06%
2012      2.37%
2013      5.56%
2014      7.52%
2015      7.65%
2016      7.86%
2017      7.79%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              0.85%         Rank: 23 of 51 (56th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  7.8%           Rank: 10 of 51 (82nd Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              42%            Rank: 10 of 51 (82nd Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   43%            Rank: 3 of 51 (96th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            127%          Rank: 10 of 51 (82nd Percentile)


The change in home prices for Texas are shown above for five time periods.
For example: Texas appreciated 0.85% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the
Texas Real Estate Market was ranked 23rd out of the 51 real estate markets of
all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia. Texas was in the 56th percentile.
So Texas performed better in the Last Quarter than 56% of these 51 real estate
markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Texas

The all time high in the Texas Home Price Index was 320.9 in the 4th Quarter, of
2017.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Texas Market is up 43% over
the last 10 years. Home prices in the Texas Real Estate Market have gained
7.79% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 177%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 2.69 points higher than the 3rd Quarter, 2017
index value of 318.18, resulting in a 0.85% rise in the 4th Quarter for the Texas
Market.

The Texas Home Price Index has increased for the last 23 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 27 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index are North Dakota and Connecticut, with declines in the last 1 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Texas Real Estate
Market was 18% in the twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 1982. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Texas Market was -10% in the
twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 1988.

The highest growth in home values in the Texas Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 26% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of
2017. The worst performance over a three year period in the Texas Market was
-13% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 1989.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Texas Home
Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research
and statistics about Texas Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you need
them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Texas Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as used
in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price
Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Texas Real Estate Market. As a result, Home
Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Texas

The trend of Texas Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2017, Texas Home Prices had a rank of 23, with
appreciation of 0.85%. The top performing real estate market during the 4th
Quarter was Nevada, with a rise of 2.66%. The worst market during that period
was North Dakota, with appreciation of -0.47%.
The median for all markets during the 4th Quarter was 0.82%. The average for
the quarter was 0.83%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Texas Home Prices had a rank of 10, with
appreciation during the year of 7.79%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 11.7%. The worst real estate market
during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 1.2%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.46%. The average was
5.69%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2017, Texas Home Prices
ranked 10, with a total appreciation of 42.1%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 82%.
The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 20%. The average over the 5
years was 27%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2017, Texas Home Prices had
a rank of 3, with appreciation during the decade of 43%. The top performing
market during the period was North Dakota, with a rise of 51%. The worst real
estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with appreciation
of -14%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 9%. The average over
that time frame was 10%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2017, Texas Home Prices had
a rank of 10, with total growth over the 20 year period of 127%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an
increase of 358%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 42%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 96%. The average  
over that period was 103%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Texas Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Texas. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, May 9, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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