Commentary  25947
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Pennsylvania


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      87%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Pennsylvania housing market for the 12 months ending with the 4th Quarter of
2018 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Pennsylvania is 87%. In
other words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology
was correct 87% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the
probability for rising house prices in Pennsylvania is 87% during this period. If
this Housing Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 4th
Quarter of 2018 than they were in the 4th Quarter of 2017. Check this page
each quarter for updates to the Pennsylvania Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      85%

The forecast for the trend in the Pennsylvania housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 4th Quarter of 2020 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Pennsylvania is 85%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 85% of the time.
Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house
prices in Pennsylvania is 85% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home values will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2020 than
they were in the 4th Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the Pennsylvania Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Pennsylvania


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     0.37%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  4.3%
Last 5 Years                                     15%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Last 20 Years                                   90%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      10.10%
1989      5.52%
1990      0.21%
1991      3.51%
1992      1.98%
1993      1.79%
1994      -2.07%
1995      3.68%
1996      0.35%
1997      2.65%
1998      3.56%
1999      1.85%
2000      4.73%
2001      6.95%
2002      7.26%
2003      7.68%
2004      11.14%
2005      11.33%
2006      5.30%
2007      1.30%
2008      -2.38%
2009      -2.82%
2010      -0.25%
2011      -2.32%
2012      -0.47%
2013      0.90%
2014      2.29%
2015      2.53%
2016      3.77%
2017      4.31%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              0.37%         Rank: 38 of 51 (26th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  4.3%           Rank: 36 of 51 (30th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              15%            Rank: 41 of 51 (20th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   5%              Rank: 33 of 51 (36th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            90%            Rank: 29 of 51 (44th Percentile)


The change in home prices for Pennsylvania are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Pennsylvania appreciated 0.37% in the Last Quarter. At
that rate, the Pennsylvania Real Estate Market was ranked 38th out of the 51
real estate markets of all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia.
Pennsylvania was in the 26th percentile. So Pennsylvania performed better in
the Last Quarter than 26% of these 51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Pennsylvania

The data and analysis on this page pertains to Pennsylvania, hereinafter
referred to as "Pennsylvania". The all time high in the Pennsylvania Home Price
Index was 416.6 in the 4th Quarter, of 2017.  The Home Price Index indicates
that the Pennsylvania Market is up 5% over the last 10 years. Home prices in
the Pennsylvania Real Estate Market have gained 4.31% over the last 12
months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 148%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 1.53 points higher than the 3rd Quarter, 2017
index value of 415.04, resulting in a 0.37% rise in the 4th Quarter for the
Pennsylvania Market.

The Pennsylvania Home Price Index has increased for the last 16 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 27 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index are North Dakota and Connecticut, with declines in the last 1 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Pennsylvania Real
Estate Market was 17% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of
1987. The worst annual change in home values  in the Pennsylvania Market
was -4% in the twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 2010.

The highest growth in home values in the Pennsylvania Real Estate Market
over a three year period was 45% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter
of 1988. The worst performance over a three year period in the Pennsylvania
Market was -8% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Pennsylvania
Home Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed
research and statistics about Pennsylvania Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Pennsylvania Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index,
as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Pennsylvania Real Estate Market. As a
result, Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of
each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Pennsylvania

The trend of Pennsylvania Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period. The
data and analysis on this page pertains to Pennsylvania, hereinafter referred to
as "Pennsylvania".

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2017, Pennsylvania Home Prices had a rank of 38,
with appreciation of 0.37%. The top performing real estate market during the
4th Quarter was Nevada, with a rise of 2.66%. The worst market during that
period was North Dakota, with appreciation of -0.47%.
The median for all markets during the 4th Quarter was 0.82%. The average for
the quarter was 0.83%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Pennsylvania Home Prices had a rank of 36, with
appreciation during the year of 4.31%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 11.7%. The worst real estate market
during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 1.2%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.46%. The average was
5.69%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2017, Pennsylvania Home
Prices ranked 41, with a total appreciation of 14.5%. The top performing real
estate market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of
82%. The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of
4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 20%. The average over the 5
years was 27%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2017, Pennsylvania Home
Prices had a rank of 33, with appreciation during the decade of 5%. The top
performing market during the period was North Dakota, with a rise of 51%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with
appreciation of -14%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 9%. The average over
that time frame was 10%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2017, Pennsylvania Home
Prices had a rank of 29, with total growth over the 20 year period of 90%. The
top performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with
an increase of 358%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 42%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 96%. The average  
over that period was 103%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Pennsylvania Real
Estate Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are
based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Pennsylvania. Real
estate appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each
time period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, May 9, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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Pennsylvania - House Price Index (HPI)
LittleBigHomes.com
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Pennsylvania single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics
and appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
500
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50