Commentary  25946
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Oregon


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      83%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Oregon housing market for the 12 months ending with the 4th Quarter of 2018
is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Oregon is 83%. In other words,
when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct
83% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability
for rising house prices in Oregon is 83% during this period. If this Housing
Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 4th Quarter of
2018 than they were in the 4th Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter
for updates to the Oregon Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      76%

The forecast for the trend in the Oregon housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 4th Quarter of 2020 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
Oregon is 76%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 76% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Oregon is 76% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2020 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Oregon Real
Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Oregon


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     0.34%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  7.7%
Last 5 Years                                     54%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
Last 20 Years                                   134%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      6.92%
1989      10.43%
1990      14.87%
1991      8.18%
1992      7.85%
1993      8.13%
1994      10.73%
1995      8.95%
1996      6.87%
1997      6.05%
1998      4.24%
1999      1.72%
2000      3.80%
2001      5.51%
2002      4.55%
2003      6.05%
2004      11.43%
2005      19.55%
2006      12.72%
2007      2.14%
2008      -6.94%
2009      -9.50%
2010      -4.64%
2011      -5.19%
2012      1.11%
2013      8.08%
2014      7.82%
2015      10.56%
2016      11.12%
2017      7.68%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              0.34%         Rank: 40 of 51 (22nd Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  7.7%           Rank: 11 of 51 (80th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              54%            Rank: 5 of 51 (92nd Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   19%            Rank: 8 of 51 (86th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            134%          Rank: 9 of 51 (84th Percentile)


The change in home prices for Oregon are shown above for five time periods.
For example: Oregon appreciated 0.34% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the
Oregon Real Estate Market was ranked 40th out of the 51 real estate markets
of all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia. Oregon was in the 22nd
percentile. So Oregon performed better in the Last Quarter than 22% of these
51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Oregon

The all time high in the Oregon Home Price Index was 541.5 in the 4th Quarter,
of 2017.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Oregon Market is up 19%
over the last 10 years. Home prices in the Oregon Real Estate Market have
gained 7.68% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 448%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 1.84 points higher than the 3rd Quarter, 2017
index value of 539.63, resulting in a 0.34% rise in the 4th Quarter for the
Oregon Market.

The Oregon Home Price Index has increased for the last 22 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 27 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index are North Dakota and Connecticut, with declines in the last 1 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Oregon Real Estate
Market was 23% in the twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 1977. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Oregon Market was -12% in the
twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 1981.

The highest growth in home values in the Oregon Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 51% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of
2006. The worst performance over a three year period in the Oregon Market
was -23% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Oregon Home
Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research
and statistics about Oregon Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you
need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Oregon Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Oregon Real Estate Market. As a result,
Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each
quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Oregon

The trend of Oregon Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2017, Oregon Home Prices had a rank of 40, with
appreciation of 0.34%. The top performing real estate market during the 4th
Quarter was Nevada, with a rise of 2.66%. The worst market during that period
was North Dakota, with appreciation of -0.47%.
The median for all markets during the 4th Quarter was 0.82%. The average for
the quarter was 0.83%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Oregon Home Prices had a rank of 11, with
appreciation during the year of 7.68%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 11.7%. The worst real estate market
during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 1.2%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.46%. The average was
5.69%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2017, Oregon Home Prices
ranked 5, with a total appreciation of 54.1%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 82%.
The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 20%. The average over the 5
years was 27%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2017, Oregon Home Prices
had a rank of 8, with appreciation during the decade of 19%. The top
performing market during the period was North Dakota, with a rise of 51%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with
appreciation of -14%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 9%. The average over
that time frame was 10%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2017, Oregon Home Prices
had a rank of 9, with total growth over the 20 year period of 134%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an
increase of 358%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 42%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 96%. The average  
over that period was 103%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Oregon Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Oregon. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, May 9, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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Oregon- House Price Index (HPI)
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Oregon single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and
appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
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2035
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