Commentary  25937
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: North Dakota


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      83%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
North Dakota housing market for the 12 months ending with the 1st Quarter of
2019 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for North Dakota is 83%. In
other words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology
was correct 83% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the
probability for rising house prices in North Dakota is 83% during this period. If
this Housing Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 1st
Quarter of 2019 than they were in the 1st Quarter of 2018. Check this page
each quarter for updates to the North Dakota Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      78%

The forecast for the trend in the North Dakota housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 1st Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for North Dakota is 78%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 78% of the time.
Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house
prices in North Dakota is 78% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home values will be higher in the 1st Quarter of 2021 than
they were in the 1st Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the North Dakota Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: North Dakota


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     -0.20%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  0.6%
Last 5 Years                                     24%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48%
Last 20 Years                                   138%
Decline From All Time High               0.66%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      -4.83%
1989      6.01%
1990      -0.22%
1991      4.01%
1992      4.40%
1993      5.37%
1994      5.86%
1995      4.53%
1996      3.26%
1997      3.92%
1998      4.20%
1999      -0.15%
2000      3.92%
2001      4.81%
2002      5.46%
2003      5.59%
2004      8.07%
2005      7.42%
2006      4.77%
2007      4.42%
2008      2.95%
2009      1.33%
2010      1.84%
2011      3.88%
2012      8.17%
2013      9.47%
2014      6.45%
2015      4.85%
2016      1.81%
2017      1.67%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              -0.20%        Rank: 47 of 51 (8th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  0.6%           Rank: 51 of 51 (Last Place)
Last 5 Years                              24%            Rank: 24 of 51 (54th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   48%            Rank: 2 of 51 (98th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            138%          Rank: 8 of 51 (86th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        0.66%

The change in home prices for North Dakota are shown above for five time
periods. For example: North Dakota appreciated -0.20% in the Last Quarter. At
that rate, the North Dakota Real Estate Market was ranked 47th out of the 51
real estate markets of all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia. North
Dakota was in the 8th percentile. So North Dakota performed better in the Last
Quarter than 8% of these 51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: North Dakota

The all time high in the North Dakota Home Price Index was 366.8 in the 3rd
Quarter, of 2017. The 1st Quarter, 2018 index value was 364.4. That's a
decline of 2.43 points or 0.66% below the North Dakota Home Price Index all
time high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the North Dakota Market is up
48% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the North Dakota Real Estate
Market have gained 0.63% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it
is up 239%.

The 1st Quarter index value was 0.73 points lower than the 4th Quarter, 2017
index value of 365.11, resulting in a 0.20% decline for the 1st Quarter in the
North Dakota Market.

The North Dakota Home Price Index has declined for the last 2 consecutive
quarters. That makes North Dakota the current record holder for consecutive
quarterly declines in the Home Price Index (along with Connecticut; which also
had 2 consecutive quarterly declines). The current record holder for
consecutive increases in the Home Price Index is Washington DC, with
increases in the last 28 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the North Dakota Real
Estate Market was 32% in the twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of
1984. The worst annual change in home values  in the North Dakota Market
was -39% in the twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 1982.

The highest growth in home values in the North Dakota Real Estate Market over
a three year period was 57% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of
1985. The worst performance over a three year period in the North Dakota
Market was -4% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of 1987.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the North Dakota
Home Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed
research and statistics about North Dakota Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the North Dakota Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index,
as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the North Dakota Real Estate Market. As a result,
Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each
quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: North Dakota

The trend of North Dakota Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 1st Quarter of 2018, North Dakota Home Prices had a rank of 47,
with appreciation of -0.20%. The top performing real estate market during the
1st Quarter was Nevada, with a rise of 3.23%. The worst market during that
period was Alaska, with appreciation of -0.96%.
The median for all markets during the 1st Quarter was 1.11%. The average for
the quarter was 1.11%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, North Dakota Home Prices had the worst
performance in the country, with appreciation during the year of 0.63%. The top
performer during the last year was Nevada, with appreciation of 13.2%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.98%. The average was
6.06%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2018, North Dakota Home
Prices ranked 24, with a total appreciation of 24.0%. The top performing real
estate market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of
83%. The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of
4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 21%. The average over the 5
years was 27%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, North Dakota Home
Prices had a rank of 2, with appreciation during the decade of 48%. The top
performing market during the period was Colorado, with a rise of 52%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with
appreciation of -14%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 10%. The average over
that time frame was 12%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, North Dakota Home
Prices had a rank of 8, with total growth over the 20 year period of 138%. The
top performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with
an increase of 347%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 41%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 98%. The average  
over that period was 103%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the North Dakota Real
Estate Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are
based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for North Dakota. Real
estate appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each
time period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Saturday, August 18, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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North Dakota Real Estate Market & Home Price Forecast
North Dakota Real Estate: Housing Market Trend
North Dakota- House Price Index (HPI)
LittleBigHomes.com
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in North Dakota single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics
and appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
100
1000
10