Commentary  25936
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: North Carolina


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      94%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
North Carolina housing market for the 12 months ending with the 2nd Quarter
of 2018 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for North Carolina is 94%.
In other words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology
was correct 94% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the
probability for rising house prices in North Carolina is 94% during this period. If
this Housing Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 2nd
Quarter of 2018 than they were in the 2nd Quarter of 2017. Check this page
each quarter for updates to the North Carolina Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      90%

The forecast for the trend in the North Carolina housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 2nd Quarter of 2020 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for North Carolina is 90%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 90% of the time.
Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house
prices in North Carolina is 90% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home values will be higher in the 2nd Quarter of 2020 than
they were in the 2nd Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for
updates to the North Carolina Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: North Carolina


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     3.55%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  7.1%
Last 5 Years                                     23%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Last 20 Years                                   73%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1987      5.37%
1988      3.78%
1989      2.85%
1990      1.37%
1991      3.00%
1992      2.53%
1993      3.02%
1994      5.00%
1995      4.95%
1996      4.20%
1997      5.52%
1998      4.50%
1999      3.02%
2000      4.60%
2001      4.86%
2002      3.11%
2003      2.94%
2004      4.84%
2005      7.48%
2006      6.82%
2007      3.78%
2008      -0.64%
2009      -4.06%
2010      -2.36%
2011      -3.32%
2012      -0.95%
2013      0.48%
2014      3.59%
2015      5.04%
2016      5.86%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              3.55%         Rank: 8 of 51 (86th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  7.1%           Rank: 16 of 51 (70th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              23%            Rank: 22 of 51 (58th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   9%              Rank: 21 of 51 (60th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            73%            Rank: 38 of 51 (26th Percentile)


The change in home prices for North Carolina are shown above for five time
periods. For example: North Carolina appreciated 3.55% in the Last Quarter. At
that rate, the North Carolina Real Estate Market was ranked 8th out of the 51
real estate markets of all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. North
Carolina was in the 86th percentile. So North Carolina performed better in the
Last Quarter than 86% of these 51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: North Carolina

The all time high in the North Carolina Home Price Index was 361.4 in the 2nd
Quarter, of 2017.  The Home Price Index indicates that the North Carolina
Market is up 9% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the North Carolina Real
Estate Market have gained 7.07% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty
years, it is up 146%.

The 2nd Quarter index value was 12.39 points higher than the 1st Quarter,
2017 index value of 349.01, resulting in a 3.55% rise in the 2nd Quarter for the
North Carolina Market.

The North Carolina Home Price Index has increased for the last 14 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 25 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index is Alaska, with declines in the last 1 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the North Carolina Real
Estate Market was 15% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of
1977. The worst annual change in home values  in the North Carolina Market
was -7% in the twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 2010.

The highest growth in home values in the North Carolina Real Estate Market
over a three year period was 24% in the three years ended with the 2nd
Quarter of 1986. The worst performance over a three year period in the North
Carolina Market was -12% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of
2012.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the North Carolina
Home Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed
research and statistics about North Carolina Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the North Carolina Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index,
as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the North Carolina Real Estate Market. As a
result, Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of
each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: North Carolina

The trend of North Carolina Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 2nd Quarter of 2017, North Carolina Home Prices had a rank of 8,
with appreciation of 3.55%. The top performing real estate market during the
2nd Quarter was Idaho, with a rise of 4.76%. The worst market during that
period was Alaska, with appreciation of -0.14%.
The median for all markets during the 2nd Quarter was 2.34%. The average for
the quarter was 2.31%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, North Carolina Home Prices had a rank of 16, with
appreciation during the year of 7.07%. The top performing market during the
last year was Washington, with an increase of 11.4%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Alaska, with appreciation of 0.7%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.28%. The average was
5.57%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2017, North Carolina Home
Prices ranked 22, with a total appreciation of 22.6%. The top performing real
estate market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of
81%. The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of
4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 19%. The average over the 5
years was 26%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 2nd Quarter of 2017, North Carolina Home
Prices had a rank of 21, with appreciation during the decade of 9%. The top
performing market during the period was North Dakota, with a rise of 53%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Nevada, with
appreciation of -17%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 6%. The average over
that time frame was 7%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 2nd Quarter of 2017, North Carolina Home
Prices had a rank of 38, with total growth over the 20 year period of 73%. The
top performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with
an increase of 343%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 43%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 98%. The average  
over that period was 103%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the North Carolina Real
Estate Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are
based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for North Carolina. Real
estate appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each
time period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Tuesday, November 7, 2017.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2017; All rights reserved.


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Alabama Real Estate Market: Percent Change in Home Prices
North Carolina Real Estate Market & Home Price Forecast
North Carolina Real Estate: Housing Market Trend
North Carolina - House Price Index (HPI)
LittleBigHomes.com
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in North Carolina single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics
and appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
100
1000
10