Commentary  25936
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: North Carolina


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      94%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
North Carolina housing market for the 12 months ending with the 1st Quarter of
2019 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for North Carolina is 94%. In
other words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology
was correct 94% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the
probability for rising house prices in North Carolina is 94% during this period. If
this Housing Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 1st
Quarter of 2019 than they were in the 1st Quarter of 2018. Check this page
each quarter for updates to the North Carolina Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      90%

The forecast for the trend in the North Carolina housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 1st Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for North Carolina is 90%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 90% of the time.
Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house
prices in North Carolina is 90% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home values will be higher in the 1st Quarter of 2021 than
they were in the 1st Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the North Carolina Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: North Carolina


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     1.63%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  7.1%
Last 5 Years                                     25%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Last 20 Years                                   71%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      3.81%
1989      2.86%
1990      1.37%
1991      3.00%
1992      2.52%
1993      3.04%
1994      4.99%
1995      4.95%
1996      4.20%
1997      5.53%
1998      4.50%
1999      3.02%
2000      4.58%
2001      4.87%
2002      3.10%
2003      2.93%
2004      4.84%
2005      7.48%
2006      6.80%
2007      3.76%
2008      -0.65%
2009      -4.07%
2010      -2.36%
2011      -3.35%
2012      -1.00%
2013      0.43%
2014      3.53%
2015      4.98%
2016      5.72%
2017      6.14%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              1.63%         Rank: 17 of 51 (68th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  7.1%           Rank: 16 of 51 (70th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              25%            Rank: 21 of 51 (60th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   10%            Rank: 26 of 51 (50th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            71%            Rank: 38 of 51 (26th Percentile)


The change in home prices for North Carolina are shown above for five time
periods. For example: North Carolina appreciated 1.63% in the Last Quarter. At
that rate, the North Carolina Real Estate Market was ranked 17th out of the 51
real estate markets of all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia. North
Carolina was in the 68th percentile. So North Carolina performed better in the
Last Quarter than 68% of these 51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: North Carolina

The all time high in the North Carolina Home Price Index was 372.2 in the 1st
Quarter, of 2018.  The Home Price Index indicates that the North Carolina
Market is up 10% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the North Carolina
Real Estate Market have gained 7.07% over the last 12 months. Over the last
thirty years, it is up 146%.

The 1st Quarter index value was 5.98 points higher than the 4th Quarter, 2017
index value of 366.19, resulting in a 1.63% rise in the 1st Quarter for the North
Carolina Market.

The North Carolina Home Price Index has increased for the last 17 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 28 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index are North Dakota and Connecticut, with declines in the last 2 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the North Carolina Real
Estate Market was 15% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of
1977. The worst annual change in home values  in the North Carolina Market
was -7% in the twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 2010.

The highest growth in home values in the North Carolina Real Estate Market
over a three year period was 24% in the three years ended with the 2nd
Quarter of 1986. The worst performance over a three year period in the North
Carolina Market was -12% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of
2012.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the North Carolina
Home Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed
research and statistics about North Carolina Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the North Carolina Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index,
as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the North Carolina Real Estate Market. As a
result, Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of
each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: North Carolina

The trend of North Carolina Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 1st Quarter of 2018, North Carolina Home Prices had a rank of 17,
with appreciation of 1.63%. The top performing real estate market during the
1st Quarter was Nevada, with a rise of 3.23%. The worst market during that
period was Alaska, with appreciation of -0.96%.
The median for all markets during the 1st Quarter was 1.11%. The average for
the quarter was 1.11%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, North Carolina Home Prices had a rank of 16, with
appreciation during the year of 7.07%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 13.2%. The worst real estate market
during that period was North Dakota, with appreciation of 0.6%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.98%. The average was
6.06%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2018, North Carolina Home
Prices ranked 21, with a total appreciation of 24.8%. The top performing real
estate market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of
83%. The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of
4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 21%. The average over the 5
years was 27%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, North Carolina Home
Prices had a rank of 26, with appreciation during the decade of 10%. The top
performing market during the period was Colorado, with a rise of 52%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with
appreciation of -14%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 10%. The average over
that time frame was 12%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, North Carolina Home
Prices had a rank of 38, with total growth over the 20 year period of 71%. The
top performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with
an increase of 347%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 41%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 98%. The average  
over that period was 103%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the North Carolina Real
Estate Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are
based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for North Carolina. Real
estate appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each
time period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Saturday, August 18, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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Alabama Real Estate Market: Percent Change in Home Prices
North Carolina Real Estate Market & Home Price Forecast
North Carolina Real Estate: Housing Market Trend
North Carolina - House Price Index (HPI)
LittleBigHomes.com
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in North Carolina single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics
and appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
100
1000
10