Commentary  25943
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: New York


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      76%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
New York housing market for the 12 months ending with the 2nd Quarter of
2018 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for New York is 76%. In other
words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was
correct 76% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the
probability for rising house prices in New York is 76% during this period. If this
Housing Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 2nd
Quarter of 2018 than they were in the 2nd Quarter of 2017. Check this page
each quarter for updates to the New York Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      69%

The forecast for the trend in the New York housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 2nd Quarter of 2020 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for New York is 69%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 69% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in New
York is 69% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct, home
values will be higher in the 2nd Quarter of 2020 than they were in the 2nd
Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the New York
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: New York


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     1.35%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  4.3%
Last 5 Years                                     16%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Last 20 Years                                   124%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1987      14.16%
1988      4.67%
1989      1.06%
1990      -2.78%
1991      1.02%
1992      2.29%
1993      0.55%
1994      -4.73%
1995      2.61%
1996      0.32%
1997      3.07%
1998      5.22%
1999      7.47%
2000      9.20%
2001      9.24%
2002      11.21%
2003      11.20%
2004      12.90%
2005      12.22%
2006      3.32%
2007      -0.92%
2008      -4.78%
2009      -4.23%
2010      0.08%
2011      -2.47%
2012      -1.06%
2013      1.09%
2014      3.46%
2015      3.24%
2016      4.70%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              1.35%         Rank: 40 of 51 (22nd Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  4.3%           Rank: 33 of 51 (36th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              16%            Rank: 34 of 51 (34th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   0%              Rank: 38 of 51 (26th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            124%          Rank: 12 of 51 (78th Percentile)


The change in home prices for New York are shown above for five time periods.
For example: New York appreciated 1.35% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the
New York Real Estate Market was ranked 40th out of the 51 real estate markets
of all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. New York was in the 22nd
percentile. So New York performed better in the Last Quarter than 22% of these
51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: New York

The all time high in the New York Home Price Index was 643.8 in the 2nd
Quarter, of 2017.  The Home Price Index indicates that the New York Market is
up 0% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the New York Real Estate Market
have gained 4.31% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up
152%.

The 2nd Quarter index value was 8.55 points higher than the 1st Quarter, 2017
index value of 635.29, resulting in a 1.35% rise in the 2nd Quarter for the New
York Market.

The New York Home Price Index has increased for the last 20 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 25 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index is Alaska, with declines in the last 1 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the New York Real Estate
Market was 23% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 1982. The
worst annual change in home values  in the New York Market was -7% in the
twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 1976.

The highest growth in home values in the New York Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 65% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of
1987. The worst performance over a three year period in the New York Market
was -11% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2010.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the New York Home
Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research
and statistics about New York Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you
need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the New York Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the New York Real Estate Market. As a result,
Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each
quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: New York

The trend of New York Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 2nd Quarter of 2017, New York Home Prices had a rank of 40, with
appreciation of 1.35%. The top performing real estate market during the 2nd
Quarter was Idaho, with a rise of 4.76%. The worst market during that period
was Alaska, with appreciation of -0.14%.
The median for all markets during the 2nd Quarter was 2.34%. The average for
the quarter was 2.31%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, New York Home Prices had a rank of 33, with
appreciation during the year of 4.31%. The top performing market during the
last year was Washington, with an increase of 11.4%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Alaska, with appreciation of 0.7%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.28%. The average was
5.57%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2017, New York Home Prices
ranked 34, with a total appreciation of 16.0%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 81%.
The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 19%. The average over the 5
years was 26%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 2nd Quarter of 2017, New York Home Prices
had a rank of 38, with appreciation during the decade of 0%. The top
performing market during the period was North Dakota, with a rise of 53%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Nevada, with
appreciation of -17%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 6%. The average over
that time frame was 7%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 2nd Quarter of 2017, New York Home Prices
had a rank of 12, with total growth over the 20 year period of 124%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an
increase of 343%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 43%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 98%. The average  
over that period was 103%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the New York Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for New York. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Tuesday, November 7, 2017.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2017; All rights reserved.


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New York - House Price Index (HPI)
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in New York single family home prices in logarithmic
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appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
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2035
2015
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500
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50