Commentary  25941
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: New Mexico


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      83%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
New Mexico housing market for the 12 months ending with the 4th Quarter of
2018 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for New Mexico is 83%. In
other words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology
was correct 83% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the
probability for rising house prices in New Mexico is 83% during this period. If this
Housing Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 4th
Quarter of 2018 than they were in the 4th Quarter of 2017. Check this page
each quarter for updates to the New Mexico Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      78%

The forecast for the trend in the New Mexico housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 4th Quarter of 2020 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for New Mexico is 78%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 78% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in New
Mexico is 78% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2020 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the New Mexico
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: New Mexico


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     0.18%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  3.7%
Last 5 Years                                     13%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -4%
Last 20 Years                                   65%
Decline From All Time High               3.97%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      -0.87%
1989      4.24%
1990      -0.13%
1991      3.87%
1992      5.41%
1993      7.60%
1994      10.28%
1995      5.91%
1996      0.87%
1997      2.76%
1998      2.46%
1999      0.24%
2000      1.73%
2001      4.54%
2002      4.34%
2003      5.86%
2004      8.14%
2005      13.92%
2006      11.78%
2007      3.02%
2008      -3.53%
2009      -4.79%
2010      -2.17%
2011      -3.74%
2012      -1.40%
2013      0.87%
2014      1.56%
2015      1.87%
2016      4.44%
2017      3.73%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              0.18%         Rank: 46 of 51 (10th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  3.7%           Rank: 39 of 51 (24th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              13%            Rank: 45 of 51 (12th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   -4%            Rank: 43 of 51 (16th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            65%            Rank: 44 of 51 (14th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        3.97%

The change in home prices for New Mexico are shown above for five time
periods. For example: New Mexico appreciated 0.18% in the Last Quarter. At
that rate, the New Mexico Real Estate Market was ranked 46th out of the 51 real
estate markets of all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia. New Mexico
was in the 10th percentile. So New Mexico performed better in the Last Quarter
than 10% of these 51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: New Mexico

The all time high in the New Mexico Home Price Index was 330.9 in the 1st
Quarter, of 2008. The 4th Quarter, 2017 index value was 317.8. That's a
decline of 13.12 points or 3.97% below the New Mexico Home Price Index all
time high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the New Mexico Market is down
4% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the New Mexico Real Estate Market
have gained 3.73% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up
143%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 0.56 points higher than the 3rd Quarter, 2017
index value of 317.21, resulting in a 0.18% rise in the 4th Quarter for the New
Mexico Market.

The New Mexico Home Price Index has increased for the last 8 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 27 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index are North Dakota and Connecticut, with declines in the last 1 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the New Mexico Real
Estate Market was 20% in the twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of
1982. The worst annual change in home values  in the New Mexico Market was
-6% in the twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 2010.

The highest growth in home values in the New Mexico Real Estate Market over
a three year period was 38% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of
2007. The worst performance over a three year period in the New Mexico
Market was -13% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the New Mexico
Home Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed
research and statistics about New Mexico Home Prices will be at your fingertips
when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the New Mexico Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the New Mexico Real Estate Market. As a result,
Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each
quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: New Mexico

The trend of New Mexico Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2017, New Mexico Home Prices had a rank of 46, with
appreciation of 0.18%. The top performing real estate market during the 4th
Quarter was Nevada, with a rise of 2.66%. The worst market during that period
was North Dakota, with appreciation of -0.47%.
The median for all markets during the 4th Quarter was 0.82%. The average for
the quarter was 0.83%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, New Mexico Home Prices had a rank of 39, with
appreciation during the year of 3.73%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 11.7%. The worst real estate market
during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 1.2%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.46%. The average was
5.69%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2017, New Mexico Home Prices
ranked 45, with a total appreciation of 13.1%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 82%.
The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 20%. The average over the 5
years was 27%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2017, New Mexico Home Prices
had a rank of 43, with appreciation during the decade of -4%. The top
performing market during the period was North Dakota, with a rise of 51%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with
appreciation of -14%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 9%. The average over
that time frame was 10%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2017, New Mexico Home Prices
had a rank of 44, with total growth over the 20 year period of 65%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an
increase of 358%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 42%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 96%. The average  
over that period was 103%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the New Mexico Real
Estate Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are
based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for New Mexico. Real
estate appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each
time period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, May 9, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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New Mexico- House Price Index (HPI)
LittleBigHomes.com
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in New Mexico single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and
appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
100
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10