Commentary  25940
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: New Jersey


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      81%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
New Jersey housing market for the 12 months ending with the 2nd Quarter of
2018 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for New Jersey is 81%. In
other words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology
was correct 81% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the
probability for rising house prices in New Jersey is 81% during this period. If this
Housing Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 2nd
Quarter of 2018 than they were in the 2nd Quarter of 2017. Check this page
each quarter for updates to the New Jersey Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      76%

The forecast for the trend in the New Jersey housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 2nd Quarter of 2020 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for New Jersey is 76%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 76% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in New
Jersey is 76% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 2nd Quarter of 2020 than they were in the 2nd
Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the New Jersey
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: New Jersey


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     1.70%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  2.8%
Last 5 Years                                     13%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -12%
Last 20 Years                                   110%
Decline From All Time High               12.18%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1987      18.07%
1988      4.79%
1989      0.41%
1990      -6.26%
1991      -0.60%
1992      1.35%
1993      1.54%
1994      -2.72%
1995      3.01%
1996      0.22%
1997      3.36%
1998      3.98%
1999      6.31%
2000      9.81%
2001      10.34%
2002      12.80%
2003      12.17%
2004      15.20%
2005      14.92%
2006      4.26%
2007      -2.15%
2008      -7.14%
2009      -6.69%
2010      -0.83%
2011      -4.53%
2012      -1.95%
2013      0.84%
2014      3.18%
2015      2.55%
2016      3.46%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              1.70%         Rank: 36 of 51 (30th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  2.8%           Rank: 43 of 51 (16th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              13%            Rank: 44 of 51 (14th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   -12%           Rank: 48 of 51 (6th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            110%          Rank: 20 of 51 (62nd Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        12.18%

The change in home prices for New Jersey are shown above for five time
periods. For example: New Jersey appreciated 1.70% in the Last Quarter. At
that rate, the New Jersey Real Estate Market was ranked 36th out of the 51 real
estate markets of all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. New Jersey
was in the 30th percentile. So New Jersey performed better in the Last Quarter
than 30% of these 51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: New Jersey

The all time high in the New Jersey Home Price Index was 576.7 in the 1st
Quarter, of 2007. The 2nd Quarter, 2017 index value was 506.4. That's a
decline of 70.23 points or 12.18% below the New Jersey Home Price Index all
time high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the New Jersey Market is down
12% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the New Jersey Real Estate Market
have gained 2.78% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up
129%.

The 2nd Quarter index value was 8.47 points higher than the 1st Quarter, 2017
index value of 497.97, resulting in a 1.70% rise in the 2nd Quarter for the New
Jersey Market.

The New Jersey Home Price Index increased in the last quarter after falling in
the previous quarter. The current record holder for consecutive increases in
the Home Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 25
consecutive quarters. The current record holder for consecutive declines in the
Home Price Index is Alaska, with declines in the last 1 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the New Jersey Real
Estate Market was 25% in the twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of
1987. The worst annual change in home values  in the New Jersey Market was
-7% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2009.

The highest growth in home values in the New Jersey Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 70% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of
1987. The worst performance over a three year period in the New Jersey
Market was -16% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2010.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the New Jersey Home
Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research
and statistics about New Jersey Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you
need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the New Jersey Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the New Jersey Real Estate Market. As a result,
Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each
quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: New Jersey

The trend of New Jersey Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 2nd Quarter of 2017, New Jersey Home Prices had a rank of 36, with
appreciation of 1.70%. The top performing real estate market during the 2nd
Quarter was Idaho, with a rise of 4.76%. The worst market during that period
was Alaska, with appreciation of -0.14%.
The median for all markets during the 2nd Quarter was 2.34%. The average for
the quarter was 2.31%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, New Jersey Home Prices had a rank of 43, with
appreciation during the year of 2.78%. The top performing market during the
last year was Washington, with an increase of 11.4%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Alaska, with appreciation of 0.7%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.28%. The average was
5.57%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2017, New Jersey Home Prices
ranked 44, with a total appreciation of 12.5%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 81%.
The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 19%. The average over the 5
years was 26%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 2nd Quarter of 2017, New Jersey Home
Prices had a rank of 48, with appreciation during the decade of -12%. The top
performing market during the period was North Dakota, with a rise of 53%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Nevada, with
appreciation of -17%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 6%. The average over
that time frame was 7%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 2nd Quarter of 2017, New Jersey Home
Prices had a rank of 20, with total growth over the 20 year period of 110%. The
top performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with
an increase of 343%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 43%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 98%. The average  
over that period was 103%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the New Jersey Real
Estate Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are
based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for New Jersey. Real
estate appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each
time period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Tuesday, November 7, 2017.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2017; All rights reserved.


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New Jersey - House Price Index (HPI)
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in New Jersey single family home prices in logarithmic
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appreciation rates are provided below.
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2035
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