Commentary  25942
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Nevada


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      86%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Nevada housing market for the 12 months ending with the 1st Quarter of 2019
is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Nevada is 86%. In other words,
when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct
86% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability
for rising house prices in Nevada is 86% during this period. If this Housing
Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 1st Quarter of
2019 than they were in the 1st Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter
for updates to the Nevada Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      80%

The forecast for the trend in the Nevada housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 1st Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
Nevada is 80%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 80% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Nevada is 80% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 1st Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 1st
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Nevada Real
Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Nevada


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     3.23%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  13.2%
Last 5 Years                                     83%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Last 20 Years                                   96%
Decline From All Time High               12.42%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      4.15%
1989      6.09%
1990      7.34%
1991      5.66%
1992      2.99%
1993      2.21%
1994      0.72%
1995      5.27%
1996      1.69%
1997      2.79%
1998      2.62%
1999      0.74%
2000      4.68%
2001      6.77%
2002      6.54%
2003      13.23%
2004      34.21%
2005      17.74%
2006      2.34%
2007      -8.51%
2008      -25.89%
2009      -16.52%
2010      -9.31%
2011      -12.32%
2012      3.82%
2013      21.78%
2014      11.02%
2015      11.52%
2016      7.95%
2017      11.93%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              3.23%         Rank: 1 of 51 (100th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  13.2%          Rank: 1 of 51 (100th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              83%            Rank: 1 of 51 (100th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   2%              Rank: 42 of 51 (18th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            96%            Rank: 27 of 51 (48th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        12.42%

The change in home prices for Nevada are shown above for five time periods.
For example: Nevada appreciated 3.23% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the
Nevada Real Estate Market was ranked 1st out of the 51 real estate markets of
all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia. Nevada was in the 100th
percentile. So Nevada performed better in the Last Quarter than 100% of these
51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Nevada

The data and analysis on this page pertains to Nevada, hereinafter referred to
as "Nevada". The all time high in the Nevada Home Price Index was 410.6 in the
3rd Quarter, of 2006. The 1st Quarter, 2018 index value was 359.6. That's a
decline of 50.97 points or 12.42% below the Nevada Home Price Index all time
high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Nevada Market is up 2% over the
last 10 years. Home prices in the Nevada Real Estate Market have gained
13.15% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 187%.

The 1st Quarter index value was 11.25 points higher than the 4th Quarter,
2017 index value of 348.33, resulting in a 3.23% rise in the 1st Quarter for the
Nevada Market.

The Nevada Home Price Index has increased for the last 23 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 28 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index are North Dakota and Connecticut, with declines in the last 2 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Nevada Real Estate
Market was 37% in the twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2004. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Nevada Market was -26% in the
twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2008.

The highest growth in home values in the Nevada Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 80% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of
2006. The worst performance over a three year period in the Nevada Market
was -46% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2010.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Nevada Home
Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research
and statistics about Nevada Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you
need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Nevada Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Nevada Real Estate Market. As a result,
Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each
quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Nevada

The trend of Nevada Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period. The
data and analysis on this page pertains to Nevada, hereinafter referred to as
"Nevada".

Last Quarter:
During the 1st Quarter of 2018, Nevada Home Prices outperformed every state,
with appreciation of 3.23% during the quarter. The worst performer during that
period was Alaska, with appreciation of -0.96%.
The median for all markets during the 1st Quarter was 1.11%. The average for
the quarter was 1.11%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Nevada Home Prices outperformed every state, with
appreciation during the year of 13.15%. The worst performer during that period
was North Dakota, with appreciation of 0.6%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.98%. The average was
6.06%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2018, Nevada Home Prices
outperformed every state, with appreciation of 82.6%. The worst performer
during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 21%. The average over the 5
years was 27%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, Nevada Home Prices
had a rank of 42, with appreciation during the decade of 2%. The top
performing market during the period was Colorado, with a rise of 52%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with
appreciation of -14%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 10%. The average over
that time frame was 12%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, Nevada Home Prices
had a rank of 27, with total growth over the 20 year period of 96%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an
increase of 347%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 41%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 98%. The average  
over that period was 103%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Nevada Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Nevada. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Saturday, August 18, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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Nevada Real Estate: Housing Market Trend
Nevada - House Price Index (HPI)
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Nevada single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and
appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
100
1000
10