Commentary  25929
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Maryland


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      83%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Maryland housing market for the 12 months ending with the 1st Quarter of 2019
is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Maryland is 83%. In other
words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was
correct 83% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the
probability for rising house prices in Maryland is 83% during this period. If this
Housing Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 1st
Quarter of 2019 than they were in the 1st Quarter of 2018. Check this page
each quarter for updates to the Maryland Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      82%

The forecast for the trend in the Maryland housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 1st Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Maryland is 82%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 82% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Maryland is 82% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 1st Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 1st
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Maryland
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Maryland


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     0.99%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  5.1%
Last 5 Years                                     17%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -8%
Last 20 Years                                   113%
Decline From All Time High               11.17%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      13.04%
1989      8.78%
1990      1.45%
1991      3.50%
1992      1.02%
1993      0.73%
1994      -2.54%
1995      3.43%
1996      0.39%
1997      1.91%
1998      2.79%
1999      3.42%
2000      6.57%
2001      8.77%
2002      11.38%
2003      13.08%
2004      19.44%
2005      21.23%
2006      7.61%
2007      -1.58%
2008      -10.16%
2009      -8.83%
2010      -1.69%
2011      -3.08%
2012      -0.77%
2013      1.61%
2014      3.57%
2015      1.87%
2016      3.89%
2017      4.05%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              0.99%         Rank: 30 of 51 (42nd Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  5.1%           Rank: 32 of 51 (38th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              17%            Rank: 37 of 51 (28th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   -8%            Rank: 50 of 51 (2nd Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            113%          Rank: 19 of 51 (64th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        11.17%

The change in home prices for Maryland are shown above for five time periods.
For example: Maryland appreciated 0.99% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the
Maryland Real Estate Market was ranked 30th out of the 51 real estate markets
of all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia. Maryland was in the 42nd
percentile. So Maryland performed better in the Last Quarter than 42% of these
51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Maryland

The data and analysis on this page pertains to Maryland, hereinafter referred
to as "Maryland". The all time high in the Maryland Home Price Index was 534.0
in the 2nd Quarter, of 2007. The 1st Quarter, 2018 index value was 474.3.
That's a decline of 59.67 points or 11.17% below the Maryland Home Price
Index all time high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Maryland Market is
down 8% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the Maryland Real Estate
Market have gained 5.13% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it
is up 183%.

The 1st Quarter index value was 4.66 points higher than the 4th Quarter, 2017
index value of 469.67, resulting in a 0.99% rise in the 1st Quarter for the
Maryland Market.

The Maryland Home Price Index has increased for the last 4 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 28 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index are North Dakota and Connecticut, with declines in the last 2 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Maryland Real Estate
Market was 23% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2005. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Maryland Market was -10% in the
twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2008.

The highest growth in home values in the Maryland Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 65% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of
2006. The worst performance over a three year period in the Maryland Market
was -21% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2010.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Maryland Home
Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research
and statistics about Maryland Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you
need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Maryland Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Maryland Real Estate Market. As a result,
Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each
quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Maryland

The trend of Maryland Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period. The
data and analysis on this page pertains to Maryland, hereinafter referred to as
"Maryland".

Last Quarter:
During the 1st Quarter of 2018, Maryland Home Prices had a rank of 30, with
appreciation of 0.99%. The top performing real estate market during the 1st
Quarter was Nevada, with a rise of 3.23%. The worst market during that period
was Alaska, with appreciation of -0.96%.
The median for all markets during the 1st Quarter was 1.11%. The average for
the quarter was 1.11%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Maryland Home Prices had a rank of 32, with
appreciation during the year of 5.13%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 13.2%. The worst real estate market
during that period was North Dakota, with appreciation of 0.6%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.98%. The average was
6.06%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2018, Maryland Home Prices
ranked 37, with a total appreciation of 17.0%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 83%.
The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 21%. The average over the 5
years was 27%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, Maryland Home Prices
had a rank of 50, with appreciation during the decade of -8%. The top
performing market during the period was Colorado, with a rise of 52%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with
appreciation of -14%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 10%. The average over
that time frame was 12%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, Maryland Home Prices
had a rank of 19, with total growth over the 20 year period of 113%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an
increase of 347%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 41%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 98%. The average  
over that period was 103%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Maryland Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Maryland. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Thursday, August 16, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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Maryland - House Price Index (HPI)
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Maryland single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and
appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
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2010
2035
2015
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